*~* Trump Stock Market / Economy Crash Watch *~*

[Winehole23]

you just want to talk about me

how is that pertinent to current events?

[TSA]

you just want to talk about me

how is that pertinent to current events?

You’re tail spinning now with your back against the wall

You were asked a question to your comment and are running as fast as you can in order to not answer it.

How is Trump’s economy pertinent to current events? You tell me you’re the one who claimed Trump is the worst ever in a thread about Trump’s economy. Put the wine down old man and stop dodging questions and embarrassing yourself. Or, man up and address your claim and try and back it up and embarrass yourself some now.

Trump’s economy is being discussed and you commented that Trump is the worst ever. Give a breakdown on the current economy and compare it to Biden’s last year in office. Compare every single metric the economy is judged on. Don’t be a pussy. Back your claim up for once.

[BadMotorscooter]

Wine Ho wont be able to answer....he searches articles and posts them...thats his big M.O. He runs when confronted with a debate proposition.

[Th'Pusher]

Worst ever on the economy?

Give a breakdown on the current economy and compare it to Biden’s last year in office. Compare every single metric the economy is judged on. Don’t be a pussy. Back your claim up for once.

These are the TDS dip s that skew polls that I’m talking about @Th’Pusher

Not that it matters but here you go…

Employment & Labor Market
Unemployment Rate: The average unemployment rate was 4.2% in 2025 compared with 4.0% in 2024—a 5% increase . By December 2025, it reached 4.4%.
Job Creation: Employers added an estimated 584,000 jobs in 2025, far below the 2 million added in 2024. This was the worst year for job growth since 2009 (excluding COVID).
Average Length of Unemployment: In 2025, the average length of unemployment was 23.1 weeks compared with 21.7 weeks in 2024—an increase of 6.4%
Long-term Unemployment: The number of long-term unemployed workers (those out of work for at least 27 weeks) rose by almost 400,000 people in 2025
Job Openings: The average share of job openings relative to existing jobs was 4.4% for the first 11 months of 2025, down 5.6% from the same period in 2024
Black Worker Unemployment: Black unemployment rose to 7.5% in December 2025, almost twice the rate for white workers at 3.8%

Economic Growth & Activity
Leading Economic Index (LEI): The LEI fell by 2.1% over the six months between March and September 2025, a faster rate of decline than its 1.3% contraction over the previous six-month period
Manufacturing Employment: Manufacturing employed 68,000 fewer people in December 2025 than in December 2024

Inflation & Prices
Overall Inflation: The Consumer Price Index increased 2.7% over the last 12 months through December 2025, compared to lower rates earlier in 2024.
Real Wage Growth: Inflation-adjusted average wages for production nonsupervisory workers in November 2025 were only 1.1% higher than a year earlier, down from a peak 12-month growth rate of 1.9% in April 2025

Federal Finances
Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Federal debt held by the public increased from 97.4% of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2024 to 99.8% at the end of fiscal year 2025
Net Interest on Debt: Interest on the debt totaled more than $1.2 trillion in FY2025, which is $100 billion more than in FY2024
Note: The federal budget deficit actually decreased slightly in absolute terms in FY2025 ($1.8 trillion vs $1.83 trillion in FY2024), though it remained elevated.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

[TSA]

Not that it matters but here you go…

Employment & Labor Market
Unemployment Rate: The average unemployment rate was 4.2% in 2025 compared with 4.0% in 2024—a 5% increase . By December 2025, it reached 4.4%.
Job Creation: Employers added an estimated 584,000 jobs in 2025, far below the 2 million added in 2024. This was the worst year for job growth since 2009 (excluding COVID).
Average Length of Unemployment: In 2025, the average length of unemployment was 23.1 weeks compared with 21.7 weeks in 2024—an increase of 6.4%
Long-term Unemployment: The number of long-term unemployed workers (those out of work for at least 27 weeks) rose by almost 400,000 people in 2025
Job Openings: The average share of job openings relative to existing jobs was 4.4% for the first 11 months of 2025, down 5.6% from the same period in 2024
Black Worker Unemployment: Black unemployment rose to 7.5% in December 2025, almost twice the rate for white workers at 3.8%

Economic Growth & Activity
Leading Economic Index (LEI): The LEI fell by 2.1% over the six months between March and September 2025, a faster rate of decline than its 1.3% contraction over the previous six-month period
Manufacturing Employment: Manufacturing employed 68,000 fewer people in December 2025 than in December 2024

Inflation & Prices
Overall Inflation: The Consumer Price Index increased 2.7% over the last 12 months through December 2025, compared to lower rates earlier in 2024.
Real Wage Growth: Inflation-adjusted average wages for production nonsupervisory workers in November 2025 were only 1.1% higher than a year earlier, down from a peak 12-month growth rate of 1.9% in April 2025

Federal Finances
Debt-to-GDP Ratio: Federal debt held by the public increased from 97.4% of GDP at the end of fiscal year 2024 to 99.8% at the end of fiscal year 2025
Net Interest on Debt: Interest on the debt totaled more than $1.2 trillion in FY2025, which is $100 billion more than in FY2024
Note: The federal budget deficit actually decreased slightly in absolute terms in FY2025 ($1.8 trillion vs $1.83 trillion in FY2024), though it remained elevated.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​

Why no link? Did ChatGPT spit this out for you?

Love how they compare CPI avg of all of 2025 to when rates happened to be lower in 2024 and not CPI avg of all of 2024, which was 2.95%. No mention of GDP either lol.

[TSA]

Unfortunately a large chunk of Americans are as clueless about the economy as Blake is and somehow think the economy in 2024 under Biden was better than the economy now even though Trump’s economy is better in almost every single metric. Idiots skew poll results when they’ve been brainwashed and fear mongered about inflation and a recession. Under Trump inflation has been lower, wages higher, and GDP is firing and on the rise. Had the MSM reported honestly on the state of the economy public sentiment would be quite different. The “experts” have finally had to admit they were wrong about inflation and a recession and can no longer hide how well GDP is tracking and projected to be. Look at the change in poll numbers as the media has finally been forced to admit the truth.

He’ll be above water by November and that’s all that matters.

“This is very strong early validation of our model’s transitional “sentiment inflection” in Q4 2025–Q1 2026: the economic rebound (gas at $2.95/gal, rents falling, +1.2M jobs Nov 2025, goods deflation emerging) is starting to register with voters, narrowing the “affordability hole” from -21 (Apr 2025) to -9 now — and our model projects it flips positive by mid-2026 as the full relief wave hits (rebates, tax cuts, FDI factories, oil plunge).

The “slowly beginning to give positive rating” language is key: sentiment is lagging hard indicators (jobs, prices), but the trend is clearly upward — exactly the “hard vs. soft” dynamic Hassett keeps emphasizing. In a polarized environment, moving from -21 to -9 in 9 months (while Trump approval is still ~45%) is huge momentum for the in bent party.”

https://x.com/sethjlevy/status/2014532890185408813

[Winehole23]

[TSA]

Don’t be a pussy Blake. Answer every single yes/no question.

You tell yourself that while you're paying more for your electricity and groceries

I’m going to ask you some simple yes/no questions and let’s see if you realize how idiotic your ill conceived gotcha worked out for you. Are you ready Simple Jack?

Are electricity and groceries your only costs? Yes or no

Are all grocery items up? Yes or no

Do you understand supply/demand and how it relates to grocery costs? Yes or no

Do you understand what offsetting costs are? Yes or no

Are gas prices lower since Biden? Yes or no

Are mortgage rates down since Biden? Yes or no

Is housing rent down since Biden? Yes or no

Are wages up since Biden? Yes or no

Is inflation down since Biden? Yes or no

Is the stock market up since Biden? Yes or no

Is GDP up since Biden? Yes or no

[ChumpDumper]

TSA meltdown

[TSA]

Many economists from both sides are warning of massive inflation

Many of you may not know this, but we have multiple different metrics for US inflation:

1) Our custom US CPI index with custom categories and weights that differ from the BLS CPI, currently at 1.21% Y/Y.

2) Our US PCE index, where we apply the weights and categories of the BEA PCE indexes to our price data, currently at 1.46% Y/Y.

3) and a BLS CPI Comparison Index, where we take our price data and apply the BLS weights and categories. That last index is actually 0.51% Y/Y, right now, which is even lower than our custom US CPI index.

If you apply the BLS CPI methodology to millions of price data points that we collect daily, you get near-zero inflation.

Blake Cramer

[CosmicCowboy]

There is no denying that the perception of the economy depends on where you are in it. Economists are calling it a K shaped economy. Those with assets and savings that can benefit from rising equity in their homes and rising income from 401ks and stock market gains are doing quite well. Those that don't have those advantages aren't. There is no denying that the cost of living has increased dramatically and will continue to rise. I just got the health care quote for 2026 renewal for my employees (I pay 100% of the premium for them and their families) and the exact same insurance I had last year is 17% higher this year. It looks like the only thing that won't go up is oil (temporarily) because current supply exceeds demand. It's definitely not "drill baby drill".

[velik_m]

[TSA]

You tell yourself that while you're paying more for your electricity and groceries

US Consumer Sentiment Hits 5-Month Highs As Inflation Worries Fall To 1-Year Low

"American households are starting 2026 on firmer footing, with sentiment ticking up to its highest level in five months and inflation worries slipping to levels not seen since early 2025, just as food prices tumble across grocery aisles."

"According to Bank of America economist Sara Senatore, deflation is gaining traction across major agricultural commodities in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Notably, sugar prices fell 16.6% year over year, oil declined 11.1%, wheat dropped 10.9% and cheese slid 7.5%. Even milk, which had been more stable, saw a 1.9% year-over-year deflation.

Retail egg prices saw the steepest drop, plunging 26% in January after peaking at +108% year-over-year inflation in March 2025. Chicken breast prices declined 21% and wing prices collapsed 48% year over year."

https://www.benzinga.com/markets/eco...pmi-us-economy

Blake Cramer

[TSA]

Trump's Economy Is In Strong-Growth, Low-Inflation Mode

"The U.S. economy is entering 2026 with rare momentum: growth is accelerating, inflation remains contained and labor market stress is easing. That rare sweet spot, often described as a "Goldilocks" setup, is historically supportive of risk assets, from large-cap stocks tracked by the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) to smaller and mid-sized companies represented by iShares Russell 2000 ETF (NYSE:IWM), handing President Donald Trump a symbolic win one year into his second term.
U.S. Economic Growth Is Running Hot — And Broad-Based

According to the final third-quarter reading from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. gross domestic product expanded at a 4.4% annualized rate, up from a prior estimate of 4.3% and well above the economy's long-term trend.

That marked an acceleration from 3.8% growth in the second quarter, already a strong showing by historical standards.

Importantly, the momentum doesn’t seem to stop here.

The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model estimates the economy expanded at a 5.4% annualized pace in the fourth quarter — a level rarely seen outside of post-recession or post-pandemic rebounds.
Strong Growth — Without An Inflation e

Even more striking is what hasn't happened: inflation has not surged alongside growth.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 2.8% year over year in November, in line with economists’ expectations. On a monthly basis, prices increased 0.2%, matching October's pace and expectations.

Core PCE — which strips out food and energy and is the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — also came in at 2.8% as expected, reinforcing the view that price pressures remain contained.

The implication: productivity gains may be doing much of the heavy lifting, allowing the economy to grow faster without overheating.

Consumer fundamentals continue to improve. Personal spending rose 0.5% month over month in November, matching October's gain, while personal income increased 0.3%, marking the sixth consecutive monthly increase.

“Rising wealth has been playing in supporting consumer spending, particularly from older, wealthier households,” commented in an emailed note Michael Pearce, chief U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.

“Real consumer spending is on track to rise by close to 3% annualized in Q4, only slightly below the 3.5% pace in Q3 and well above our baseline forecast for a 2.1% gain,” he added.

On the labor market front, fears of widespread layoffs have eased as jobless claims have come in lower than expected in recent weeks.

"A wave of layoff announcements in the fall never translated into a significant increase in initial jobless claims… Continued claims are also trending lower, suggesting employers aren't pulling back further," said Nancy Vanden Houten, economist at Oxford Economics.

"Notifications by employers of pending layoffs were down sharply as of December after a jump in October," she added."

https://www.benzinga.com/markets/mac...lation-markets

Blake Cramer

[Th'Pusher]

There is no denying that the perception of the economy depends on where you are in it. Economists are calling it a K shaped economy. Those with assets and savings that can benefit from rising equity in their homes and rising income from 401ks and stock market gains are doing quite well. Those that don't have those advantages aren't. There is no denying that the cost of living has increased dramatically and will continue to rise. I just got the health care quote for 2026 renewal for my employees (I pay 100% of the premium for them and their families) and the exact same insurance I had last year is 17% higher this year. It looks like the only thing that won't go up is oil (temporarily) because current supply exceeds demand. It's definitely not "drill baby drill".

This is correct. TSA can point to all the metrics that show a strong economy but it’s irrelevant…which is why I say the only metric that matters is how people perceive Trump’s handling of the economy. It’s not that people don’t understand or believe the metrics, it’s that the metrics TSA and fellow MAGAphones want to amplify, it’s that they’re not impacted by the metrics. Most Americans don’t have equity whereas tight labor markets are felt by most.

I hear you on the oil policy. I got a buddy who provides services to the oil companies in the Permian basin…massive trump supporter and he’d trade trump oil policy for Biden policy all day right about now. Our farmers are getting ed too.

[CosmicCowboy]

Speaking of investing, I took my mag 7 profits off the table in the last week of 2025 and moved the cash to a Chinese tech ETF, a global robotics ETF, a Brazil ETF, and upped my ante in VRT. I'm temporarily out of crypto. I sold at 99, bought back in at 78 and sold again at 95. Looking hard at a South Korea ETF as well.

[CosmicCowboy]

Sadly missed Sandisk last year even though it made total sense in retrospect. Kind of afraid to jump on the bandwagon now.

[Blake]

You are such a re ed ing simpleton .

I’m going to ask you some simple yes/no questions and let’s see if you realize how idiotic your ill conceived gotcha worked out for you. Are you ready Simple Jack?

Are electricity and groceries your only costs? Yes or no

Are all grocery items up? Yes or no

Do you understand supply/demand and how it relates to grocery costs? Yes or no

Do you understand what offsetting costs are? Yes or no

Are gas prices lower since Biden? Yes or no

Are mortgage rates down since Biden? Yes or no

Is housing rent down since Biden? Yes or no

Are wages up since Biden? Yes or no

Is inflation down since Biden? Yes or no

Is the stock market up since Biden? Yes or no

Is GDP up since Biden? Yes or no

Don’t be a pussy Blake. Answer every single yes/no question.

Those are mostly false/ loaded questions. You're too stupid to know that means.

[TSA]

Those are mostly false/ loaded questions. You're too stupid to know that means.

You are such a ing PUSSY

Here pussy, no excuses now.

Are gas prices lower since Biden? Yes or no

Are mortgage rates down since Biden? Yes or no

Is housing rent down since Biden? Yes or no

Are wages up since Biden? Yes or no

Is inflation down since Biden? Yes or no

Is the stock market up since Biden? Yes or no

Is GDP up since Biden? Yes or no

Don’t be a pussy Simple Blake. Answer every single yes/no question.

[Th'Pusher]

Dude. No one gives a about your screeching and cherry picked stats. He’s a ing horrible human and a really terrible president. Pay attention

[velik_m]

Amazon braces for another major round of layoffs, 14,000 jobs at risk

Amazon is expected to undergo another round of layoffs next week, according to an exclusive report from Reuters, in an effort to trim its workforce by approximately 30,000 employees.

This is considered the next round of layoffs that first occurred in October, two sources who asked not to be identified told Reuters. During the October round of layoffs, 14,000 employees were laid off. The second round, which can begin as early as Tuesday, is expected to affect roughly the same number of employees.

Included in the layoffs are jobs within the company’s Amazon Web Services, retail, Prime Video, and People Experience and Technology departments.
...

https://mynorthwest.com/local/amazon...t-risk/4192118

[Blake]

https://mynorthwest.com/local/amazon...t-risk/4192118

BUT WAGES HAVE GONE UP FOR THE ONES STILL WORKING THERE

[velik_m]

[Winehole23]

https://www.ft.com/content/8cbb2664-...5-99181df151fc

[Winehole23]