Trump wants U.S. Navy to escort tankers through the Gulf. Why that plan may not work
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“A key question will be whether there are enough Navy assets to both escort ships as well as continue operations against Iran,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets, told clients in a Tuesday note.
Insurance isn’t really the issue for ship owners, Wright at Kpler said. Tankers are not moving because they are worried about their physical security, he said, and ship owners will need to a see a sustained period without attacks to venture through the Strait again.
The urgency to recover oil flows from the Gulf is high, Wright said. But “there needs to be some confidence that Iran’s ability to continue to wage war has diminished,” the analyst said.
Houthi militants in Yemen disrupted Red Sea traffic with missile attacks for more than a year, starting in late 2023. “They’re nothing compared to the sophistication of the Iranians, so it is a very different, threat,” Wright said.
U.S. naval escorts help at the margin but by themselves will not re-open the Strait, Rapidan Energy analysts said in a note on Wednesday. Instead, the U.S. needs to systematically degrade Iran’s military capabilities, which takes time, they said.
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