Iran taking control of Hormuz -- Trump is primarily to blame
Iran says vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz will be required to carry compulsory Iran-approved insurance.The coverage is currently being offered free of charge, but Tehran says it may impose fees in the future.
Iran just closed the strait again.
IRGC:
France interfering with Trump's surrender:
French FM Barrot: France will veto lifting UN Security Council sanctions on Iran until nuclear talks meet its expectations and address Tehran's ballistic missiles and proxy forces.
there is a clock ticking for the Iranians here--their access to Chinese markets--and weapons in particular--is something Xi can throttle when *China's* economy crashes into recession and Iran is still standing in the way of a global recovery
Significant clashes between the IDF and Hezbollah in Nabatiyeh district, in southern Lebanon
Oh how the turn tables..
biden crime famileee!
a US war of indeterminate duration and scope in the middle east was always a strong possibility once Trump embarked of a war of choice with Iran, most of us have been alive long enough to have seen it happen before
https://bsky.app/profile/asherelbein.../3monqwbv5ts2cHere's the thing: it doesn't matter if the IRGC's settlement and its actions in attempting to enforce it are unfair to Israel and America, or constrain them in bad faith ways, because the latter two started a direct conflict and, crucially, *lost*
This is what happens when you start a war of choice and then lose: the people who won get to set terms, decide whether or not you're abiding by them, and impose penalties or reopen hostilities if they decide you aren't. That's just how it works
The American and Israeli gamble was that Iran's control of the strait wouldn't matter. It did. The other gamble was that Iran wouldn't care about what happens in Lebanon. It does. These are the facts! It doesn't matter if we don't like them, because we *lost*
It's perfectly within Iran's interest to let American global interests (and frankly, everyone's global interests) twist in the wind while Israel tries to sabotage the deal, because they still hold the strait, and can let a wedge open between their two enemies. It's still a winning hand.
All of this to say, if you aren't prepared for the possibility that you might lose vital strategic and diplomatic leverage and be left at the mercy of another power, *don't start a war in the first place*
I am curious, under Obama diplomacy Iran participated in reasonable and good faith negotiations. Then it was torn to shreds by Trump which would make anyone not want to do that again. Now that they know they can force powerful en ies to capitulate what stops them from spamming that strategy?
CENTCOM: Commercial ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz increased June 20 as U.S. forces continued operating in the general area to support freedom of navigation.
"up is down"-ism is the party line
I think one of the things Iran is negotiating for, ultimately, is a meaningful rupture in the U.S.-Israeli relationship. Those conditions in the deal may not be meant to hold; they may be meant to maneuver the US into an untenably painful posture wrt Israel when they fail.I think they’re betting that Trump is erratic enough to actually break the US-Israeli relationship. He’s already promised he could get Israel to stand down, so now his pride is involved. If he can’t even dictate to a US client state, it’ll make him feel super impotent & at that pt he just…does .
So now if you're Iran, all you have to do is keep saying "give us everything we want and we'll open the strait," knowing that the strait being closed is intolerable to the US but being unable to strike Lebanon is intolerable to Israel, and just see what happens
grandpa is on TILT
Sure, you can't get tolls from a closed strait.
is the USA for freedom of navigation or not?
Trump acting like he's the one who's gonna collect tolls
He really needs to concentrate on being a thirsty bisexual interior designer and get a show on TLC.
Iran had DJT by the ung nuts and isn't about to let go. The Israel/hezbollah thing is existential for Israel. Hezbolla is stronger than the Lebanese army. If Trump neuters Israel then Hezbollah could possibly overthrow the Lebanese govt. And Israel will have Iran II on their northern border. If they continue to fight Hezbollah then Iran trips the world into recession and Trump and Israel get the blame. Trump is clearly trapped in a no win situation and is apparently too ing stupid to even realize it.
Too late.
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