http://insider.espn.go.com/ncf/insid...t&lid=tab1pos2
...sound familiar? its only exactly what i have been saying. if USC wins they are in, and it doesn't really even matter by how much...even though i think USC will handle nd, any win would do it.
also, the razorbacks are all but dead. how sweet it would be if SC can win these last two...(story below)
Despite staying No. 2, Michigan still needs help
Insider
By Brad Edwards
Special to ESPN.com
Anyone still wondering if Saturday's 1 vs. 2 clash lived up to its hype needs only to look at the current BCS standings.
Ohio State and Michigan still hold the top two spots, which not only indicates that many voters remain convinced they are the best two teams in the land, but it also suggests that a bunch of people wouldn't mind seeing a rematch for the national le on Jan. 8.
Michigan
Ohio State
It would not be unprecedented for a team to reach the national championship game without winning its conference le or for a team to reach the national championship game after losing its regular season finale. Both have happened twice before.
In 2001, Nebraska entered its final game of the regular season ranked first in the BCS standings and lost 62-36 at Colorado. That prevented the Huskers from winning the Big 12 North and dropped them to fourth in the BCS. A series of upsets over the next two weeks allowed Nebraska to rise back to No. 2 and reach the national le game, where it lost decisively to Miami.
Two years later, Oklahoma entered the Big 12 Championship Game ranked No. 1 in both polls and every BCS computer. The Sooners were routed by Kansas State, 35-7, but remained No. 1 in the BCS on the strength of those computer ratings. OU then lost to LSU in the national le game.
Unlike those teams, Michigan didn't enter its final regular-season game ranked No. 1 in the BCS, but also unlike the others, the Wolverines dropped only one spot in the polls following their loss (Oklahoma fell two places, Nebraska dropped four). Even though the BCS formula has since changed to give much more weight to the polls, Michigan won't need as much help to reach the national championship game as Nebraska did over the final two weeks of 2001.
Don't be fooled by this week's standings, though; the Wolverines do need some help. Despite what you think you see, USC is still in the driver's seat to finish second behind Ohio State, and there will be no Michigan-OSU rematch without a loss by the Trojans. The Men of Troy are slightly ahead of Michigan in both BCS polls (remember, the AP poll doesn't count) but trail the Wolverines in all but one computer. If USC closes the season by beating Notre Dame and UCLA, it will not only climb ahead of Michigan in most, if not all, of the computers, but it could even jump Ohio State in some. And as voters see more of USC and remember less of the Classic in Columbus, the Trojans should also put a little more room between themselves and the Wolverines in both polls.
USC
It's possible, however, that Michigan could overcome any of the other one-loss contenders. The toughest for the Wolverines to crack would be Florida. But if Notre Dame beats USC, Michigan is probably a lock to finish with better overall computer ratings than the Gators, even if Florida beats an 11-1 Arkansas team in the SEC Championship Game. In that case, Florida would have to move past Michigan in the polls to trump UM in the BCS standings. It could happen, but it's far from a sure thing.
Arkansas is more of a long shot to pass Michigan, since even the best-case scenario for the Hogs will still leave them behind the Wolverines in the computers. For Arkansas to reach the top two of the BCS standings, it will need to be ranked comfortably ahead of all other one-loss teams in the polls on Dec. 3. Needless to say, the Razorbacks would have to be awfully impressive against both LSU and Florida to get above Michigan on most of the ballots.
Notre Dame
On the surface, Notre Dame may appear to be in better shape than Arkansas, but the Irish probably have much less of a shot to reach the national championship game. The reason? Notre Dame's 26-point home loss to Michigan continues to hang over the Irish like a dark cloud. Even if ND does manage to beat USC and finish 11-1, there probably won't be very many voters who would rank the Irish ahead of the Wolverines on their ballots because of that emphatic head-to-head result. And since Notre Dame has no chance to get past Michigan in the computer ratings, its case is almost as hopeless as that of West Virginia, Wisconsin, Louisville and Rutgers.
Whether there will be an Ohio State-Michigan rematch for the national le remains to be seen, but the fact that it's a legitimate possibility right now speaks volumes about both the quality of Saturday's game between those teams and the lack of other exciting one-loss candidates at this stage of the season.
Wilted Rose?
• Even though Notre Dame's national le hopes were all but derailed by Michigan's narrow defeat at Ohio State, the Irish may have been less discouraged by the day's events than the Rose Bowl Committee. Unless Florida somehow works its way into the BCS Championship Game, the Rose Bowl is almost certain to lose its traditional Big Ten vs. Pac-10 matchup.
We know Big Ten champion Ohio State won't be heading to Pasadena, and Pac-10 champion USC is currently the odds-on favorite to be the Buckeyes' opponent. The Rose Bowl can't be extremely thrilled with the idea of a Big Ten vs. Pac-10 game for the national championship being played in Glendale, Ariz.
If that happens, the Rose would get two picks to replace those teams and would almost certainly take Michigan to fill the void left by Ohio State. Unfortunately for the committee, Cal dropped to 19th in this week's standings and probably won't climb back into the top 14 to give the Pac-10 a team eligible to be taken as an at-large pick. That would leave a choice for Michigan's opponent between the Big East champion, an at-large team from another major conference and Notre Dame. Speaking of rematches, anyone want to see that Michigan-Notre Dame game played again?
If the Michigan-OSU rematch does materialize, the Rose will get USC but won't have a Big Ten opponent for the Trojans. Even though Wisconsin will be ranked in the BCS top 10, there is a rule prohibiting any conference from having more than two teams in BCS games in a given season. That means the Rose Bowl is right back to that same pool of teams to select an opponent for the Trojans. Maybe Notre Dame and USC would like to take some more shots at each other.
BCS Bronco Watch
Boise State
• For Boise State, it all comes down to one game. The Broncos play at Nevada (8-3) on Saturday, and a win will virtually clinch them a spot in the BCS. Boise State ranks 11th in this week's standings and would get a decent bump in the computers from beating the Wolf Pack, so there's little chance of them getting displaced from the top 12. Even if that somehow happens, a Georgia Tech loss at Georgia on Saturday would provide all the necessary insurance that the ACC champion will be ranked lower than the Broncos, which is also worth a free pass into a major bowl.
Brad Edwards is a college football researcher at ESPN. His Road to the BCS appears weekly during the season.
http://cfn.scout.com/2/592647.html
...other good points. i almost forgot about the overtime with Ball State...not a loss but proof that they are human as was USC when they lost to Oregon State. now, ohio state...well they are obviously #1 right now, but this thread has nothing to do with that as they are already in the le game.
Go Notre Dame!!!!
If USC plays Ohio State in the NC, the Buckeyes will roll. USC is good - very good - but not on the scale of Ohio State, IMHO. I think the Trojans have a legitimate shot at beating ND (and definately UCLA). ND is the piss-poorest top-5 team currently and probably the piss-poorest top-10 team. USC should be able to beat them at home. UCLA is a good rivalry game, but the Bruins just plain suck this year, so I don't think they'kk contend much.
Um.. They didn't go to overtime w/ Ball State, they were up over 20 points, let the reserves in, and they promptly gave up the lead. Michigan, IMO, is the second best team in the land, however, they had their chance to beat Ohio St, and didn't. I am not for a rematch, unless it is setup by losses from USC and Florida (Michigan pummeled Notre Dame, so they don't deserve to be in). Michigan had their chance, but missed tackles and horrible penalties did them in. Michigan only deserves a rematch if Florida and USC lose one of their next two.
I think it all boils down to USC (as JGW said). If they lose, I think Michigan will play tOSU again. If they win, USC will play tOSU. I don't like to have rematches - especially for the NC - but in this case, I think Michigan would be a good rematch. They showed they can hang with tOSU, and, more importatntly, they did this ON THE ROAD. Who knows how the game would have ended up if they played at Michigan or on a nuetral field.
...your right, i forgot/misread that. sorry. however, Ball State is nowhere near as good as Oregon State....so point stands.
...exactly right. if USC wins out they are in...if not i do think there will be a rematch. if you look at the standings these are the two most probable outcomes.
This game is a true quandry for me.
I want SC to lose for the sole purpose of screwing up the BCS.
I want ND to lose because...well basically I can't stand them.
Lesser of two evils though.....SC.
I want Notre Dame to trounce the Trojans 'cause I love the Irish and I don't want to see USC get a shot at the championship since I think Ohio State will just knock the crap out of them.
you *think*. USC can beat Ohio State...
btw, if USC beats Notre Dame...they will have beaten more top 25 teams than Michigan and Florida combined.
Michigan played the no. 1 ranked team in the country and, at the time, no. 2 team in the country, both ON THE ROAD.
Let's not compare playing Nebraska and Oregon, a team that isn't even ranked anymore, to playing Ohio State and Notre Dame on the road.
USC: wins @ Arkansas, Nebraska, Oregon, & Cal
Mich: wins @ notre dame, wisconsin, & iowa
...i'm sorry, but USC has had more impressive wins. you don't get credit for losses...thats just doesn't make any sense. plus, when USC beats notre dame and ucla then our wins will be even MORE impressive than yours.
Michigan would beat USC and I don't care how many top 25 teams USC has played. USC lost early and it cost them.
But if Ohio State and Michigan were to play again then they would have to split the championship...no?
...i hope USC wins out, cause we are going to expose the big 10 and the buckeyes.
Your LOSS was not impressive.
Michigan's ONLY loss was to the no. 1 team in the nation.
THAT is the difference.
...except i have never believed any team should get credit for losses. you lost....you didn't win, and in this business winning is all that matters.
I owe an an apology to JGW for thinking he was crazy... but I still hope USC chokes on a big .
also, why can't USC beat Ohio State? cause you don't think so, cause some experts don't think we can. no thanks, i'll take my chances on the field. i'd rather go through life trying than listening to those who think you can't.
No credit need be given to a team for losing. But, losing rank status for a loss should be assessed. A national championship caliber team does not lose to an UNRANKED opponent.
why not? they played poorly in a hostile environment where 4 turnovers were committed to the Beavers none. not to mention oregon state is not half bad. i disagree with that completely.
Ok, go back to your argument that "winning is all that matters."
Michigan has 11 wins. If SC wins out, they'll have 11 wins.
You would want to go to strength of schedule but not pay attention to the loss. Not surprising coming from SC logic. But, coaches WILL take into consideration that SC lost to an unranked team. They will see that Michigan's only loss was to the no. 1 team in the country on the road.
You want to talk about how many top 25 teams SC will have played. Only Notre Dame is a top 10 team. The other three were ranked #17 or higher. Michigan played a no. 2 ranked Notre Dame team on the road and a Wisconsin team that is currently ranked no. 9 and no. 10 respectively in the two polls.
Just pound Notre Dame to make the better argument.
If USC doesn't beat them big, then it's their own fault if they don't go to the NC game. Just like you said Michigan had their chance, well, this is USC's chance. POUND Notre Dame and they make it hard for the voters and the computers NOT to put them no. 2. Beat ND by less than 10 points, and it's their own fault for not making a stronger case.
1. did you forget Arkansas?
2. and i think who you beat is more important than who you lose to when USC's wins are more quality than Michigan's
3. let me ask you this....if USC played Oregon State right now, who would win? who is better?
1. No, I didn't forget Arkansas, but I did count them as a #17 team when SC played them. My fault. They are ranked higher now, so they are a quality win even if SC Mitch Mustain (except for garbage snaps) and Darrin Mcfadden didn't play that game.
2. SC's only quality win RIGHT NOW is against Cal. If SC beats Notre Dame, then they'll have two quality wins, with a solid win against Nebraska. And, with all your rational discrediting Michigan's wins, don't even start with Arkansas when SC didn't play them with Mitch Mustain starting at QB and Darren Mcfadden was out and not playing.
3. If you're going to ask whether SC or Oregon State would win right now, then I ask you with Mitch Mustain and Darren Mcfadden, who would win between Arkansas and SC now? Who is better?
SC's quality wins would be against Cal and Notre Dame, with a solid win against Nebraska. Michigan would have quality wins against Notre Dame and Wisconsin, with a solid win at Penn State.
Spin it how you want to spin it. SC has a great chance at getting to the le game. I'm not arguing that. I'm arguing that SC is a better team than Michigan. You're the one who thinks winning is all that matters, but then went on to discredit three of Michigan's wins. Yet, when it comes to SC's close wins, it's ok to have reasons for the games being so close.
SC may very well go on to the NC game even if they beat Notre Dame by a close margin. I will just continue to say that it will be debatable if that happens that SC is more deserving than Michigan. And, to not take into consideration the losses of each team is utterly ridiculous. OF COURSE you look at the losses of the teams.
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