Stock Watch: Horford's rising; Noah's slipping

**Spurminator** · 01-05-2007

Stock Watch: Horford's rising; Noah's slipping

By Chad Ford
ESPN.com

While NBA fans have been focused on the 30 pro teams, NBA scouts have been watching the best group of prospects seen in years.
Now that the college season is half over, and most teams are beginning conference play, it's time to recap the first half and preview the second half of the regular season.

Last week we looked at 13 freshmen who have a shot to be lottery picks in June. Now we're examining the college sop res, juniors and seniors.

Which ones have helped themselves? Whose stock is falling? Read on.

STOCK RISING

Al Horford, PF, Jr., Florida

Horford was a potential late lottery pick last season after Florida's amazing tournament run, but some scouts questioned whether he was anything more than a serviceable rotation player in the NBA. Furthermore, an ankle injury this season has slowed his progress a little.

But when he's been healthy he's shown a great combination of toughness, basketball IQ and athleticism. And what really has given his stock a boost was his performance against consensus No. 1 pick Greg Oden. Horford dominated Oden on both ends of the floor, and has his stock now planted firmly in the Top 10.

Marcus Williams, SF, So., Arizona

Some questioned Williams' decision not to declare for the 2006 draft after a stellar freshman year. But by all accounts, Williams' game has matured and his stock continues to rise.

Williams reminds scouts of former NBA star Steve Smith. He is long and fairly athletic, can defend multiple positions and doesn't need the ball to be effective on offense. He's improved his rebounding and shooting percentage dramatically this season, despite being the focal point of the defense.

He should be a late lottery pick on draft night.

Sean Williams, PF/C, Jr., Boston College

No one has improved his stock more than Williams this season. I've been talking about him since his freshman year, but he showed only glimpses of NBA potential his first two years of college.

Lately he's been on a tear, establishing himself as the best shot blocker in college basketball. Against Duquesne he put up an amazing triple double: 19 points, 10 rebounds and 13 blocked shots.

He's also beginning to show talent as an offensive player and rebounder. Given his size, athleticism and improvement, he's turned himself into a lottery prospect.

The only thing holding him back? Several offcourt incidents the past few years have scouts seriously questioning his character.

Dominic James, PG, So., Marquette

The 2007 NBA draft looks amazing in all but one area: point guard. It appears that there won't be one lottery-caliber point guard prospect for a second straight year.

The best of the group appears to be James. He isn't a pure point guard, a great perimeter shooter or even quite 6-foot, but his combination of athleticism, strength, defensive prowess, scoring ability and explosiveness have scouts intrigued.

Given the new uptempo style of play in the NBA, James should be a good fit as a mid-to-late first-round pick.

Morris Almond, SG, Sr., Rice

Almond declared for the NBA draft last year and impressed scouts with his play at the Orlando predraft camp. It wasn't enough to get him a first-round promise, however, so he returned to Rice -- on a mission.

So far, he's been amazing, averaging 30 points per game -- shooting 52 percent from the field and an impressive 46 percent from 3-point land. Considering his size (he measured 6-6 in shoes at Orlando), athleticism (he has a 35-inch vertical and ran one of the fastest three-quarter-length sprints at the predraft camp) and his consistency (Rice averaged 20 ppg and shot 44 percent on 3s last season too), he should be the first college senior off the board on draft night.

How high he goes depends on workouts. Were he at a big-name school like Duke, he'd be in the lottery. Right now, scouts have him in the mid-to-late first round. But he could rise.

STOCK SLIPPING

Joakim Noah, PF/C, Jr., Florida

This was inevitable. Noah had a Cinderella run for Florida last season and most likely would have been the No. 1 pick in the 2006 NBA draft had he declared. With a number of super freshmen coming into the game and NBA scouts now going through Noah's game with a fine-toothed comb, we expected him to fall a notch or two.

Noah is still ranked by most scouts as a top-five player in the draft, but lately I've been hearing a chorus of questions about his position, offense and failure to improve much this season.

I'm not necessarily buying it. When you focus on Noah's strengths (size, athleticism, energy, ballhandling, passing and ability to create off the dribble), he's still an excellent prospect. If Florida plays deep into March again, and Noah's the leader again, it's hard to see him falling out of the top four or five.

Josh McRoberts, F, So., Duke

Most scouts believed that McRoberts, sans J.J. Re and Shelden Williams, would have a monster year at Duke. So far, it hasn't materialized. McRoberts has struggled, especially against top compe ion. His shooting percentage is way down this season, as are his per-minute numbers.

He still has the talent of a lottery pick, but he's going to have to put together better numbers in the second half (which he's done the last few games) to move back into the high lottery.

Jeff Green, SF, Jr., Georgetown

Scouts still love Green's overall game, but his numbers, across the board, have been disappointing.

Scouts appreciate his versatility, point forward skills, and defensive play. But most scouts expect potential lottery picks to average more than 11.7 points, especially when the team is struggling. Green took just two shots against Old Dominion, four against Oregon and six versus Duke -- all losses for the Hoyas.

You can blame a lot of this on Georgetown's offense, which is a bad fit for a player like Green (in this aspect he reminds me a little of Rajon Rondo at Kentucky last year -- good player, bad fit).

Still, he has to assert himself more to get his stock back up into the late-lottery range.

Tyler Hansbrough, PF, So., North Carolina

Hansbrough's numbers continue to impress, and he remains one of the toughest, most aggressive low post players in the NCAA.

However, he's struggled in games against bigger, more athletic power forwards and centers, and that alarms scouts. Hansbrough is already an undersized four who doesn't have particularly long arms and isn't that athletically gifted. He'll face long, athletic players almost every game in the NBA.

So, when you compare him to teammate Brandan Wright, I don't think there's any question who the better NBA prospect is.

Luc Richard Mbah a Moute, F, So., UCLA

Mbah a Moute was another March Madness wonder who helped spark UCLA all the way to the final game. His combination of size, athleticism, strength and defensive tenacity earned him comparisons to a young Ron Artest -- without the personality issues.

Much was made this summer about his improving jump shot and offensive game & but scouts haven't really seen that in games yet. Mbah a Moute remains an athletically gifted defender who excels in the open floor. But once the offense grinds down into the half court, his effectiveness is severely limited.

He's still a first-round prospect, but talk of him in the lottery has faded to a whisper.

SECOND-HALF SLEEPERS

Darren Collison, PG, So., UCLA

Collison took scouts by surprise with his MVP performance at the Maui Invitational.

Given his incredible acceleration, he may be the quickest point guard in the NCAA right now. He's also proven to be a capable leader for UCLA. He has been shooting lights out from 3-point range, is a tenacious defender and can be spectacular in the open court.

Like a lot of other point guards in this draft, he's undersized, but given the success of smaller point guards right now, Collison could be a steal in the late first round.

Mario Chalmers, PG, So., Kansas

Chalmers has been the most consistent offensive weapon on the Jayhawks of late. He's not a pure point guard, but he has enough skills to play that position in the pros. He has a steady hand, shows good range on his jump shot and plays like a leader on the floor.
If he puts it all together in the second half of the season, he's got a shot at the first round.

Mustafa Shakur, PG, Sr., Arizona

Shakur has been touted as a top draft prospect since his freshman year, but has been mostly a disappointment for NBA scouts. He declared for the draft last spring and didn't get much interest from scouts, forcing him to return to Arizona for his senior year -- something that neither Shakur nor Lute Olsen really seemed to want.

But Shakur has been a different player this year. He's playing under control and racking up the assists, and even his ugly jump shot is going in with more regularity.

Given the lack of talent at the point guard position, scouts are talking about Shakur as a second-round prospect. If he continues playing this well and leads Arizona deep into the tournament, he has a chance to go even higher.

Chad Ford covers the NBA for ESPN Insider.