Exit Pole Report

[Extra Stout]

Well that's great, and I never agreed or disagreed.

I was merely pointing out that you ignored what Dan said.

The report takes Dan's argument one step further.

Dan's argument has been that the results are rigged because of unaccountable computer voting. If that were true, then exit polls would show a statistically significant discrepancy between the poll deviations in computer-voting precincts, and the poll deviations in punch card/optical/mechanical precincts.

The only discrepancy noted was an even larger Kerry oversample in the mechanical voting precincts.

One fact the report does not mention is the historical tendency of exit polls to oversample Democrats in presidential elections.

So, in order for Dan to maintain a coherent conspiracy theory that discounts the validity of the Bush re-election, based upon this report, he must expand his allegations of Republican electoral fraud to cover all voting technologies in the 2004 election, and probably all other recent presidential elections as well.

[Yonivore]

You owe me a new keyboard...

I say we officially christen this YOMANK! (You Owe Me A New Keyboard).

[Useruser666]

I see we can now let this report pass by.

[Nbadan]

This topic has grown beyond the scope of this discussion forum. The Theories which the Edison/Mitofsky Report has generated have been dubbed the Relunctant Bush Responder Theory. For a more indepth discussion on why this theory is bogus please visit Mark Blumenthal at the Mystery Poller web site.

[Useruser666]

This topic has grown beyond the scope of this discussion forum. The Theories which the Edison/Mitofsky Report has generated have been dubbed the Relunctant Bush Responder Theory. For a more indepth discussion on why this theory is bogus please visit Mark Blumenthal at the Mystery Poller web site.

Well, I knew you would come up with some counter opinion to this. You quote the exit polls as bible scripture and when they are proven false you decide to change religions. You can not be argued with because you have shifting principles. The people who created the exit poll make a statement that doesn't agree with you, so you decide they're liars too. Fine, whatever.

[Useruser666]

1) It is still just a survey – Even when complete, an exit poll still has the same random variation as any other survey. NEP says typical state exit polls will have a sampling error when complete of +/- 4% at a 95% confidence level, and +/- 3% for the national exit poll. Even if comparable to the final numbers – which they are decidedly not – the mid-day leaked numbers would have much greater error, perhaps +/- 7% or more.

From the website you referenced.

[Nbadan]

Problem is, fifteen (15) states deviated to Bush beyond the MOE.

Total 2-party votes: 121,056
(in thousands of votes)

42 of 50 states deviated to Bush
The probability is 0.0000005818
The odds are 1 in 1.719 million

15 states deviated beyond the MOE to Bush
The probability is 0.0000000000009166
The odds are 1 in 1.091 trillion

4 States flipped from Kerry to Bush (FL, OH, IA, NM)

Kerry (2-party):

Actual Vote: 59,085 (48.81%)
Exit Poll: 60,997 (50.39%)
Deviation: 1.912 million votes


Bush (2-party):

Actual Vote: 61,971 (51.19%)
Exit Poll: 60,059 (49.61%)

Average MOE: 2.85%
Average Net Deviation from Kerry to Bush: 1.73%

…… Votes Poll Poll Poll Vote Vote Poll Dev. Dev. Dev >2.0%Flip Dev. Vote Poll Vote Poll
…… (000) Size MOE Kerry Kerry Bush Dev. /MOE >MOE Bush Bush Bush (000) Kerry Kerry Bush Bush
AK 302 910 3.31% 40.50% 36.77% 63.23% -3.73% 112% YES YES YES -11 111 122 191 180
AL 1,870 730 3.70% 41.00% 37.10% 62.90% -3.90% 105% YES YES YES -73 694 767 1,176 1,103
AR 1,998 1402 2.67% 46.60% 45.07% 54.93% -1.53% 57% YES -31 900 931 1,097 1,067
AZ 1,043 1859 2.32% 47.00% 44.72% 55.28% -2.28% 98% YES YES -24 467 490 577 553
CA 12,255 1919 2.28% 54.00% 55.04% 44.96% 1.04% 46% 128 6,745 6,618 5,510 5,637

CO 2,103 2515 1.99% 49.10% 47.63% 52.37% -1.47% 74% YES -31 1,002 1,033 1,101 1,070
CT 1,551 872 3.39% 58.50% 55.27% 44.73% -3.23% 95% YES YES -50 857 908 694 644
DC 372 795 3.55% 91.00% 90.52% 9.48% -0.48% 14% YES -2 337 338 35 33
DE 224 770 3.60% 58.50% 53.83% 46.17% -4.67% 130% YES YES YES -10 121 131 104 93
FL 7,548 2846 1.87% 50.50% 47.48% 52.52% -3.02% 161% YES YES YES YES -228 3,584 3,812 3,965 3,736

GA 3,280 1536 2.55% 43.00% 41.65% 58.35% -1.35% 53% YES -44 1,366 1,411 1,914 1,870
HI 426 499 4.48% 53.30% 54.40% 45.60% 1.10% 25% 5 232 227 194 199
IA 1,494 2502 2.00% 50.60% 49.66% 50.34% -0.94% 47% YES YES -14 742 756 752 738
ID 590 559 4.23% 33.50% 30.68% 69.32% -2.82% 67% YES YES -17 181 198 409 393
IL 5,239 1392 2.68% 57.00% 55.21% 44.79% -1.79% 67% YES -94 2,892 2,986 2,347 2,253

IN 2,448 926 3.29% 41.00% 39.58% 60.42% -1.42% 43% YES -35 969 1,004 1,479 1,445
KS 1,171 654 3.91% 35.00% 37.13% 62.87% 2.13% 55% 25 435 410 736 761
KY 1,782 1034 3.11% 41.00% 39.99% 60.01% -1.01% 32% YES -18 713 731 1,069 1,051
LA 1,922 1669 2.45% 44.50% 42.67% 57.33% -1.83% 75% YES -35 820 855 1,102 1,067
MA 2,875 889 3.35% 66.00% 62.74% 37.26% -3.26% 97% YES YES -94 1,804 1,897 1,071 977

MD 2,359 1000 3.16% 57.00% 56.57% 43.43% -0.43% 14% YES -10 1,334 1,345 1,025 1,014
ME 727 1968 2.25% 54.70% 54.58% 45.42% -0.12% 5% YES -1 397 398 330 329
MI 4,793 2452 2.02% 52.50% 51.73% 48.27% -0.77% 38% YES -37 2,479 2,516 2,314 2,277
MN 2,792 2178 2.14% 54.50% 51.76% 48.24% -2.74% 128% YES YES YES -76 1,445 1,521 1,347 1,270
MO 2,715 2158 2.15% 47.50% 46.38% 53.62% -1.12% 52% YES -30 1,259 1,290 1,456 1,425

MS 1,130 798 3.54% 43.30% 40.49% 59.51% -2.81% 79% YES YES -32 458 489 673 641
MT 440 640 3.95% 39.80% 39.50% 60.50% -0.30% 8% YES -1 174 175 266 265
NC 3,487 2167 2.15% 48.00% 43.76% 56.24% -4.24% 197% YES YES YES -148 1,526 1,674 1,961 1,813
ND 308 649 3.93% 34.00% 36.09% 63.91% 2.09% 53% 6 111 105 197 203
NE 767 785 3.57% 36.80% 33.15% 66.85% -3.65% 102% YES YES YES -28 254 282 513 485

NH 672 1849 2.33% 55.40% 50.69% 49.31% -4.71% 203% YES YES YES -32 341 372 331 300
NJ 3,581 1520 2.56% 55.00% 53.37% 46.63% -1.63% 64% YES -58 1,911 1,970 1,670 1,612
NM 748 1951 2.26% 51.30% 49.60% 50.40% -1.70% 75% YES YES -13 371 384 377 364
NV 816 2116 2.17% 49.40% 48.68% 51.32% -0.72% 33% YES -6 397 403 419 413
NY 7,277 1452 2.62% 63.00% 59.29% 40.71% -3.71% 141% YES YES YES -270 4,314 4,584 2,963 2,692

OH 5,599 1963 2.26% 52.10% 48.94% 51.06% -3.16% 140% YES YES YES YES -177 2,740 2,917 2,859 2,682
OK 1,464 1539 2.55% 35.00% 34.43% 65.57% -0.57% 22% YES -8 504 512 960 951
OR 1,810 1064 3.07% 51.20% 52.11% 47.89% 0.91% 30% 16 943 927 867 883
PA 5,732 1930 2.28% 54.30% 51.26% 48.74% -3.04% 134% YES YES YES -174 2,938 3,112 2,794 2,619
RI 429 809 3.52% 64.00% 60.58% 39.42% -3.42% 97% YES YES -15 260 274 169 154

SC 1,600 1735 2.40% 46.00% 41.36% 58.64% -4.64% 193% YES YES YES -74 662 736 938 864
SD 382 1495 2.59% 37.80% 39.09% 60.91% 1.29% 50% 5 149 144 233 237
TN 2,421 1774 2.37% 41.50% 42.81% 57.19% 1.31% 55% 32 1,036 1,005 1,384 1,416
TX 7,360 1671 2.45% 37.00% 38.49% 61.51% 1.49% 61% 110 2,833 2,723 4,527 4,637
UT 905 798 3.54% 30.50% 26.65% 73.35% -3.85% 109% YES YES YES -35 241 276 664 629

VA 3,172 1431 2.64% 48.00% 45.87% 54.13% -2.13% 81% YES YES -68 1,455 1,522 1,717 1,649
VT 305 685 3.82% 65.00% 60.30% 39.70% -4.70% 123% YES YES YES -14 184 198 121 107
WA 2,815 2123 2.17% 54.90% 53.65% 46.35% -1.25% 58% YES -35 1,510 1,545 1,305 1,270
WI 2,968 2223 2.12% 52.50% 50.19% 49.81% -2.31% 109% YES YES YES -68 1,490 1,558 1,478 1,410
WV 750 1722 2.41% 45.30% 43.52% 56.48% -1.78% 74% YES -13 327 340 424 410
WY 238 684 3.82% 30.90% 29.69% 70.31% -1.21% 32% YES -3 71 74 168 165

Avg 2,374 1443 2.85% 48.81% 50.39% 51.19% -1.73% 79%
Med 1,782 1495 2.59% 49.10% 47.48% 52.52% -1.70% 67%
Total 121,056 73,607 15 43


The exit polls indicate that Kerry won both the electoral and popular vote in 2004. After in depth evaluation of the exit polls, it is very unlikely that those exit polls are fundamentally wrong:

1) The chances of the exit polls being in error through simple statistical anomalies is astronomically high. Almost all of the variations of vote count from exit polls favor Bush but they do so in a varied enough way not to be accounted for by any "innocent" explanation so far offered.

2) The methodology of the exit polls is basically sound. That methodology has been defended by NEP and there is enough empirical evidence to support that contention (TIA's "Mitofsky knows where to poll").

3) The execution of the exit polls has come under substantial attack but non of the rationales provided so far come even close to consistently accounting for the variation described above.

4) None of the extraneous issues (exit poll "design", etc.) come close to coherently negating the above.

5) No "secret", unreleased data sufficient to fundamentally challenge the above remains.

6) Therefore, the analysis of the exit polls indicate that the exit polls were correct (i.e. "Kerry Won") and the vote counts were wrong.

7) The exit poll results do not indicate a correlation to a single type of "election fraud" associated with a single type of voting machine, etc. but, rather, indicate a much more decentralized but consistent variation of the vote for Bush... in a phrase, a systemic bias for Bush.