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Thanks for the heads-up Manny...
And we could get major rain out of it by later this week...
Potential for tropical cyclone to impact the TX coast.
Changes to forecast from Wednesday through Friday are required based on latest HPC and NHC thinking and 12Z model guidance. At 300pm visible images along with radar from Cancun, Mexico clearly show a well defined low level circulation about 100 miles N of the Yucatan coast. Upper level low over the central Gulf of Mexico is moving W toward the S TX coast with strong southerly shear across the top of 91L. Shear should weaken over the next 12 -24 hours as the upper low moves westward. Steering of 91L then comes under the influence of large scale high over the southern plains.
Current model guidance including 12Z run of GFDL takes the system into the S TX coast between Brownsville and Corpus Christi which is also supported by the GFS and NAM . Will disregard 68kts by the SHIPS and follow closer with the 50kts depicted on the DSIPS guidance suggesting a landfalling tropical storm late Wednesday along the lower TX coast.
Will need to make significant changes to wind and seas forecast and rainfall/QPF forecast starting Wednesday. At this time core of adverse weather should impact areas from Matagorda Bay southward.
Seas: Expect coastal winds to shift to the ENE Tuesday and begin to increase by Wednesday as Gulf pressures lower. Wave Watch III guidance builds offshore swells into the 8-12 foot range starting early Wednesday as tropical storm force winds spread into the outer coastal waters. Will increase from flat seas of 1-2 feet into 6-8 feet coast to 12 feet offshore. Increasing swells and winds will result in tidal run-up along the beaches starting late Tuesday. Will increase tides into the 1.0-2.0 foot above normal range ( Brazoria County N ) and into the 2.0-2.5 foot range ( Brazoria County S ). Could see tides up to 4.0 feet above normal around Matagorda Bay by late Wednesday with overwash of protection dunes.
Winds: Will increase winds into the 20-30mph range out of the E to ENE for Wednesday. May be close to northern extent of TS force wind radii over the Matagorda Bay area late Wednesday. Squalls and rainbands will likely produce gust at or above 40mph along the coast.
Rain Chances: Will up chances to 50% by Wednesday and may need to go even higher especially W of I-45 based on forecast track of center and deep surge of 2.50+ PWS. NAM and GFS show most of the heavy rains N and E of the center of the system…so even a landfall in S TX would support heavy rains and squalls northward up the TX coast. HPC progs show 6.4 inch bullseye near the landfall locations with widespread 2-4 inches contours up the TX coast into Matagorda Bay .
Residents along the TX coast should closely monitor the progress of this system.
Thanks for the heads-up Manny...
After all the heat in Central Texas I welcome the rain.
Well, that's the problem. The high pressure system that is dominating TX has to move far enough east to let this move north. The models I've seen are pretty consistently sending the storm into the valley.
Given where this is starting it's probably not going to cover a lot of area. That said we all know how unpredictable these things are and it's worth keeping an eye on.
An Invest != a Tropical Storm
True but irrelevant since the first post in this thread is talking about the Invest which has a significant chance of turning into a tropical storm.
I'm praying the high moves somewhat. I'm sick of the sun. Bring on the rain...not like early in the summer..but a little bit.
I'm ready for some rain too... I hate the heat.
Looking at the satellite imagery this morning it looks like they'll probably name this a TD by this afternoon and it'll probably be a TS before it makes landfall. There is clear low level circulation but the storms are far from the center.
People are already ting bricks here in Corpus.
Ain't never gonna get to Corpus. Models have already shifted south from what they predicted yesterday - with the exception of the GFDL which is just ludicrously off already from a 2AM forecast. Coincidentally the GFDL is the only one bringing it north of the border with Mexico.
Models at this stage of development are iffy at best not to mention Corpus would be well within an error margin.
I could care less its not going to be big enough to make a significant difference. Hard to believe the stir that it already caused.
Everybody stand by to PANIC!!!!!
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
409 PM CDT TUE AUG 14 2007
.DISCUSSION...
THE TROPICS ARE FINALLY GETTING ACTIVE...WITH TROPICAL STORM DEAN
OVER THE OPEN ATLANTIC AND A TROPICAL DISTURBANCE OVER THE CENTRAL
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL LIKELY ORGANIZE INTO A
TROPICAL DEPRESSION TONIGHT AS IT CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD
THE TEXAS COAST. THE 12Z MODEL SUITE CONSENSUS WAS FOR A TD TO
MAKE LANDFALL WEDNESDAY NIGHT BETWEEN BROWNSVILLE AND CORPUS
CHRISTI AND MOVE NORTHWEST TOWARD DEL RIO...WITH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWEST COUNTIES. HOWEVER...THE 18Z
RUN OF THE NAM12 IS CONCERNING...SHOWING A TS MAKING LANDFALL NEAR
CORPUS AND MOVING NORTH INTO THE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO CORRIDOR
THURSDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN OVER THE HILL COUNTRY THURSDAY NIGHT.
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER SOUTH TEXAS IS A LOCK...WHETHER A WELL-
DEFINED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL...OR SIMPLY A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PUSHES INLAND. IT IS THE PLACEMENT OF THOSE HEAVIER
RAINS AND HIGH-END AMOUNTS THAT REMAIN UNCERTAIN. OUR FORECAST
WILL BE A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS AND WILL HOLD-OFF
ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN FAVOR OF ONE MORE MODEL RUN TO AIDE
FORECAST CONFIDENCE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE NHC/TPC HAS
NOT FOUND A LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER YET...AND THE SATELLITE
IMAGERY PRESENTS LIKE A CLASSIC TROPICAL DISTURBANCE AT THIS POINT
IN TIME. OUR FORECAST WILL BEGIN A MULTI-DAY TREND BACK TOWARD
CLIMO CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY.
THE 12Z GFS SHOWS TS DEAN MOVING WNW INTO THE SOUTHEAST
GULF AND INTENSIFYING AT 180H. DEAN WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED
CLOSELY AS WELL AND MAY AFFECT OUR WEATHER AROUND THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.
Earlier this evening I heard the flight in couldn't find a center of circulation to name it or anything. It was a low pressure system, but not defined as tropical in nture since it didn't have the full center of circulation. Nonetheless let's get ready for some rain. Whether it hits directly for the 35 cooridor or not, Sa-town should get some rain out of it.
I rode out a tough one, Camille was it, maybe during the 70's in Kingsville Texas. I was a student at Texas A&I and decided to ride the storm out in my mobile home.
When you're young sometimes you don't really plan well like you ought to.
That damned trailer home did a weird Texas 2 step about every 5 minutes all night long.
Never again!
Everybody Panic!
I hope I bought enough batteries and water today.
ah .. i am here in so. padre right now... wtf???? this is a bunch of bull ing up my vacation
Bring me some fish from the White Sands restaurant in Port Isabelle on your way back.
Then go the long way through McAllen and stop to get me a botana plate, and run to Royal China on Nolana and 10th to get me a plate of Sesame Chicken.
Latest models are bringing the storm further north:
Winds are not expected to exceed tropical storm force before landfall.
Coming together nicely today. Probably a TS sometime this afternoon. Doubt it makes ot to hurrican strength, but not entirely impossible given the good environment its in. Either way not going to be a major storm but will bring more rain to South Texas.
i did it! i washed my car on monday! the heat!
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