http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=3310778
PICK YOUR POISON
Toughest Western Conference field in years? Perhaps. Here's the teams poised to make it, who they want to see, and who they should be running from.
by Ric Bucher
Dallas Mavericks
Would Rather See: Rockets, Suns
Would Rather Avoid: Jazz, Spurs
The Yao-less Rockets will give Jason Kidd & Co. the ability to do damage inside—and out, if they opt to find the open man. And if you think the Suns' interior D is bad now, imagine Shaq or Amaré being forced to defend Dirk Nowitzki (assuming he's healthy) on the perimeter. Different story with the Jazz, which have the Turkish Dirk in Mehmet Okur and Deron Williams, a point guard Kidd can't post. The Mavericks also should be wary of the Spurs because Dallas has no answer for a healthy Manu Ginobili.
Golden State Warriors
Would Rather See: Hornets, Suns
Would Rather Avoid: Jazz, Lakers
Now that Phoenix has Shaq, the Warriors are the NBA's best true up-tempo team. They wouldn't mind seeing the Suns or the Hornets, since they have the perfect antidote for Steve Nash (Baron Davis) and Peja Stojakovic (Stephen Jackson). But the Lakers and Jazz present problems. Both have the depth and athleticism to run with the Warriors, plus the half-court, low-post threats to take them apart when the pace slows.
Houston Rockets
Would Rather See: Hornets
Would Rather Avoid: Jazz, Lakers, Spurs
Come the playoffs, the Rockets' 22-game win streak won't win them any more games; they'll live and die by their experience in the crunch. A matchup against the Hornets—led by Chris Paul, David West and Tyson Chandler—favors Tracy McGrady, Rafer Alston and Shane Battier. But the Jazz, Lakers and Spurs all have core players who've marched deep into the postseason, a path way easier to find if you've been down it before.
Los Angeles Lakers
Would Rather See: Rockets, Warriors
Would Rather Avoid: Spurs
Derek Fisher and Kobe Bryant won't be rattled by Oracle Arena's crazies or Golden State's helter-skelter style. As for the Rockets, it's still all about T-Mac. Can you see him making his playoff bones against Kobe? Neither can we. The Spurs, though, have muscled many an upstart out of the playoffs. And if the Lakers have a weakness, it's that a couple of key players—namely, Lamar Odom and Pau Gasol—are known to wilt in the postseason.
New Orleans Hornets
Would Rather See: Rockets, Suns
Would Rather Avoid: Jazz, Spurs
The Rockets have barely more playoff experience than the Hornets. Plus, Houston's best D against a penetrating Chris Paul is 41-year-old Dikembe Mutombo. Meanwhile, New Orleans is 40 against Phoenix this season. On the flip side, the Jazz stalled the Hornets' attack to the tune of 90 ppg in three head-to-heads this season. And Williams gives Paul fits. Another tough matchup for Paul: the Spurs, who have the discipline and strategy to keep him contained.
Phoenix Suns
Would Rather See: Hornets, Rockets, Spurs
Would Rather Avoid: Lakers, Mavericks, Warriors
Getting Shaq was all about beating the Spurs, so Phoenix wants to prove the gamble wise. Houston, meanwhile, with its slow pace and second-tier big men, is the only team that can't run Shaq off the floor. The Hornets can, but their bigs—notably Tyson Chandler—have little playoff run. Now the bad news: Shaq will have a hard time staying with the small and fast Warriors. And his having bolted the Lakers and beaten the Mavs in the 2006 Finals means those folks want revenge.
San Antonio Spurs
Would Rather See: Hornets, Rockets
Would Rather Avoid: Warriors, Mavericks
Vast playoff experience vs. none sums up a Spurs-Hornets series. As for the Rockets, the thinking league-wide is that Tracy McGrady still doesn't have the grit to improve upon his 06 postseason series record. (By comparison, Tony Parker has a mark of 153.) A record-setting regular-season win streak doesn't change that; it puts him under more pressure. Meanwhile, Spurs boss Gregg Popovich doesn't love battling his pals. That's what would happen if San Antonio drew Pops' ol' drinking buddy Don Nelson (Warriors) or ex-PG Avery Johnson (Mavs).
Utah Jazz
Would Rather See: Hornets, Rockets, Warriors
Would Rather Avoid: Lakers
Utah fouls more than any other NBA team (24.34 pg), which is why it wants the worst free-throw-shooting, playoff-bound teams, Houston and Golden State. Plus, with Deron Williams at the point, the Jazz can run with up-tempo teams, especially at home, where they average 107 ppg. Their weakest link? Shooting guard. Against the Lakers, that translates into a slower game, with Kobe setting up shop at the free throw line.
Interesting that the only team that ESPN thinks would want to see us is the Suns.
I don't agree that we want to avoid the Mavs. The team is very different from the 05-06 team that beat us in 7 games.
I think everyone agrees that the Warriors are a dangerous team, especially after last year.
It's really tough to say who I'd rather the Spurs avoid in the playoffs. Every team presents its own set of unique challenges and no matchup this year will be easy. I guess if I had to rank the Western foes from what I perceive as toughest matchup to most winnable for San Antonio I'd probably rank it like this
Least favorable matchups to best IMO.....
Hornets (Byron's a pretty darn good playoff coach and the Hornets are stacked with athleticism)
Suns (The Suns will be a war for us with Shaq)
Jazz (Sloan's a great 7 game series coach and the Jazz are playoff tested now)
Warriors (They can elevate to an amazing level as we've seen in first round matchups)
Nuggets (So much talent on this team and they can bang inside)
Lakers (Kobe always makes playing these guys scary)
Rockets (They've got a bench that plays with great fire and energy. RA is a good coach, but missing Yao should be their undoing in the post season.)
Mavs (Kidd is a great guard but without Dirk (or a healthy Dirk) they're susceptible this year.)
My thought while typing that is anyone who wins the West this year will deserve it. The conference is so close from 1 through 9.
Heck no. The Hornets might be the last team I want to see the Spurs face in the playoffs. They kicked the Spurs azz twice and had a chance in the other two. The Spurs should try to avoid them at all costs.San Antonio Spurs
Would Rather See: Hornets
Beat me to it. As it stands, the Hornets are the scariest team in the West for the Spurs. That could change by the time the playoffs start but hopefully another team can take care of business against NO.
We've beaten them twice as well. In the first win, we got up towards the end of the second quarter, and we were up by double digits for nearly the entire second half (so I don't think they had a chance in that one). In the second win, we were up double digits for the second and third quarters. They did come back to tie it and they had a chance but the Spurs showed good execution in the clutch and got the 9 point win.
I think the serious mismatch is Chris Paul and the pick and roll. However, Pop should be able to figure out some way to control that-he did in the second win. Also, Bowen completely owns Peja and I think Oberto/Horry should be able to do a pretty good job on West. I'm not saying it would be easy to beat them but I think we would. I think we could win the first two games of the series just out of playoff experience-each round goes up in intensity.
i think you're on drugs if you really believe this.
The Suns would rather see the Spurs? Bring em on!
Why? In the Spurs' 98-89 win, Oberto and Horry both did very well against West. They both contested his shots well.
yeah I would not want to see Hornets. They are like the Mavs of 2006 for us
Yet another writer who thinks GS presents a problem for SA over a series. Why? We have the WMD to kill the 5 headed GS snake: Tim Duncan. Like Utah, you punish them in the paint, and take as little damage on the perimeter and on the break as you can. Eventually, they have to play Beidrins heavy minutes, and that cuts their offense by 20%, 4 scorers instead of 5. Game over. Personally, I think they were a better team last year than this year, and we OWNED on them last year. We beat them by 40 points in December and 37 points in March.
Why are the Mavs in this list? They won't make the playoffs.
I'll rather see a Yao-less Rockets.
Odd that Bucher didn't even mention the Nuggets...
perfect. Everyone is assuming the will miss the playoffsor they know that the Nuggets will get swept or win 1 game anyway
I don't think they are like the mavs of '06. The mavs of '06 had guys who could guard Parker,Duncan, Ginobilli. I remember them being able to throw Harris and Terry at Parker, and have Diop,Damp,Mbenga all 3 of them take turns hacking Duncan, along with Howard taking shots at Ginobilli. Plus Harris and Terry would speed up the game which didn't allow the spurs to set up on D while Dirk was a matchup problem that nobody could solve. Factor in Bowen having to guard Dirk which allowed Howard free reign to get whatever he wanted.
New orleans is a tough team but they don't causes as many matchup problems like the '06 mavs did. They don't have as many bigs to throw at Duncan and the only one I think that could defend Duncan is Chandler but not David West. Paul is always going to cause problems but I think the spurs will find away to overcome it. As good as West is I don't think he's going to harm the spurs like Dirk did in '06 plus Peja is a choker. I think the spurs will prevail and I see the Hornets more like the '03 suns a matchup problem that is headache but one in which the spurs prevail.
Awesome job 228 I agree on the NOH, I think SA would want them. Zero playoff experience, zero zero zero. I think people over-estimate teams going in sometimes that haven't even been there once.
That's what I tought es..
The Suns you would rather no see, we will kick your collective sorry asses, No Tim Donaghy to help you out this time!
Did somebody post something?
Couldn't tell you what.
This message is hidden because Princess Pimp is on your ignore list.
Either that or it's just that your team wasn't in a playoff spot till late tonight..perfect. Everyone is assuming the will miss the playoffs
Post-season experience and chess matches trump the no pressure reg. season.
I think the Hornets, Suns, and Nuggets (in that order) would be the most difficult for the Spurs to handle in the playoffs. If the Lakers get healthy (Bynum and Gasol), you can add them behind the Suns.
Say what you want, but the Shaq deal is looking like a very smart move by the Suns
And the Hornets are way to atheletic and have way too many noted "Spurs killers" on their roster for the Spurs to handle. I think the Hornets can be to the Spurs what the Warriors were to the Mavs last year.
Oh and with the way things are looking right now, I have a feeling Nuggets are a surefire in for the playoffs.
It's going to be a tossup between the Warriors and Mavs as to who misses the playoffs. It's a 50-50, but I'm leaning towards the Mavs if Dirk doesn't come back ASAP.
Interesting that I have read several posters say that they do NOT want to face the Hornets at all. I would think the Spurs would beat them in 5 or 6, but maybe I'm wrong? Also, same with the Nuggets.
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