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Yes We Can...
According to projections by The Field....
Rural VotesThe Field projects Obama to win today’s Democratic conventions in Texas by a comfortable margin which will give him an advance of between 9 and 11 Democratic National Convention delegates when all is said and done.
Of the 4,407 state convention delegates yet to be determined, 893 will come from Dallas (where Obama is so far winning 65 percent of the votes) and from Houston (where Obama is so far winning 75 percent of the votes). Other key Obama strongholds are yet to come in, and together outnumber the Clinton strongholds (San Antonio, El Paso and others) yet to be counted.
Essentially, Obama is outperforming throughout the state except for in the (largely counted) Rio Grande Valley region and in the northernmost parts of the Texan Panhandle, where Clinton has overperformed. But the math should guarantee a victory for Obama when the tallies are all in.
At midnight, with 72.31 percent of all state convention delegates selected:
Obama: 3,106 (56.03 percent)
Clinton: 2,437 (43.97 percent)
We’ll continue updating on Sunday.
DUI radio, our local wing-nut affiliate kept reporting that Clinton was winning today...Losers...
Yes We Can...
A large margin.
Even if Hillary wins PA and the primaries, I bet it will be by fatally small margins.
Hillary's fat ass is grass.
Get out da way and let Obama and the old, dumb white guy get on with it.
Last edited by boutons_; 03-30-2008 at 08:30 AM.
Are they just really slow counters or what?
Keep it to continue.
no boutons hillary actually won texas bya large margin..obama's heavily african american districts are giving him delegates he didn't earn.. don't be stupid.. your boy hasn't won one state that matters.
the same valley that voted 65-35 for clinton? the result of tom delay's mid decade gerrymandering?
Democrats are so funny . . .
"delegates he didn't earn"
what? Blacks are voting Obama is bad, but shoulder-pad feminists and women voting because Hillary is a woman is OK?
Losts of blow-by-blow here:
http://ruralvotes.com/thefield/
"your boy hasn't won one state that matters."
But he's winning the popular votes, unbeatably winning the pledged and super delegates, and will pickup a most of the Hillary voters who will vote against McCain.
The Repugs are out of money, dispirited, and won't be able to get out the vote. They'll be looking at bigger Dem margins in both houses on Obama's coattails.
Hillary's fat, nasty ass is grass. She will destroy herself and Bill wil continue to spend his diminishing political capital up to the convention, but they won't win. They've already lost, as even Hillary's people admit.
Looks like Hillary's broke, too:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/0...i_n_94093.html
And as the ruralvotes blog asks, will Hillary have enough to the pay her delegates to go to the Austin convention and actually cast their votes?
"With the Clinton campaign virtually broke, and likely even more so in June, it probably won’t be able to afford to pay for the gas and other expenses for so many people, whereas the Obama campaign, being flush to the tune of tens of millions of dollars, will probably do what is necessary to get its delegates there: that will be three days after the final primaries across the nation. Which campaign do you think can pick up a few more delegates simply by turning out its troops to the convention?"
your man is going to lose the 08 election and fade into oblivion... your to blinded to realize that..
there are around 25% of clinton's supporters who are going to vote for mccain.. obama is done..
your woman is going to lose the 08 election and fade into oblivion... your to blinded to realize that..
there are around 25% of Obama's supporters who are going to vote for McCain.. Clinton is done..
Nice. I see we've bought the "the only states that matter are the states I've won" argument. I guess we have given up on the "50 State Strategy."
I have made this statment 10 times over.. please catch up
So him not winning florida, texas, ohio, pennsylvania, california,.. doesn't concern obama supporters? throw in the fact that the 1/4 of the loser's camp will vote for mccain..the dems are done fr the white house in 08..I'm ok with that because they still hold congress and may even widen their majorities...
GGA is such an amazing prognosticator. He's got it all figured out. I'm sure he's laying money on the line because who wouldn't with such a sure thing? Its money in the bag if you bet on McCain to win the general election!
Look at that man! McCain is only trading at 40 to win the General, there is huge value there!!!! How many are you going to buy GGA?
McCain '08.
No matter what.
WIth the country spilt 47/45 (in favor of the moderate to conservative point of view) there are reasons why the dems won't win
8% of undecided independents
list of reasons..
Obama- he's a black guy..
fair or not, there is a segment of the population that won't for a black guy
Clinton- she's a woman
there is a sgement of the population that won't vote for a woman
neither has the experience McCain does.. real or not there is a perception that MCCain does have more experience.. I have a feeling we may be hearing that quite a bit in the coming months..Just a hunch
There is a portion of each's camp that hate the other side and will either sit out in November or they will vote for mccain
Either candidate will be demonized as a lib which will garner enough support for mccain from the right wingers
If I'm a republican I will promote the idea that a country run by one party isn't healthy.. Some will buy it
Today Obama tried to tie McCAin to BUsh. what the is he talking about? As much as I hate Bush I cannot honestly claim that the 2 men are similar in their points of view or character. This ain't gonna work.
Let's assume that there are democrats out there , including myself, who didn't fall in Love with Obama at first sight?
McCain isn't Bush. McCAin appeals to independents,and I know it's extremely hard to comprehend, who weren't fainting when they heard Obama speaking.
It is obvious to me that Clinton will dominate down the stretch but lose both the delegate and population by a small margin. Obama will come into the fall with ZERO momentum ZERO... How can you feel good losing PA by 12 to 16 points?
What do you think is going to happen to next? You can assume that Obama/Clinton winner might pick up 8 points in PA in the general election but still get smoked in the general election...
Neither candidate will win enough of the remaining Democrats to win in NOvember..
The only way I see either Dem winning is if McCAin dies..
I predict some brilliant political pundit will point the same things out that I have... just a little later than I did
Last edited by George Gervin's Afro; 03-30-2008 at 11:35 PM.
I went to the Hays county convention as an Obama alternate who then got bumped up when one of our delegates was too sick to go.
Hays county was run pretty orderly, and the ending tally that went on to the state:
34 Obama delegates,
22 Clinton delegates,
and a ton of alternates that would very likely not get the vote. The alternates were very heavily Clinton, as Obama's people had enough votes to get the first place positions, but not enough to shut out the Clinton votes for the second place spots that went to alternates.
The way it works is that in individual precincts, the nominee with the most votes got the voting delegate spot, and the second finisher got the alternate spot.
In our county, the Obama people had 3 training meetings before-hand and our precinct met for a strategy meeting before hand to pick the most dedicated guy that we were going to vote for.
Our precinct went 12 delegates for Obama, and 9 for Clinton.
The votes went 10 votes for our guy, 9 for the Clinton gal, and 2 votes for our second pick.
If, before the state convention, the Clinton delegate drops, then the person with the 3rd highest number of votes moves up to the alternate spot, so that is why we threw a couple of votes to the other Obama nominee.
The elected delegates from the convention went 32-7 for Obama, with the county having 18 "at large" delegates that went 15. The at-large delegates were chosen by a nominations committee to "smooth out" the results so that they more closely matched the overall delegation preferences. Because the voting caucus process produced very heavy voting delegate preference for Obama, the majority of the at-large delegates went to Clinton.
At which point, I kind asked myself, why we bothered caucusing, if the at-large delegates chosen by the nominations committee were just going to put the number of delegates into the ratio of the overall convention anyways.
We began with about 62% Obama and 38% Clinton and ended-up pretty darn close to that, after the at-large delegates were picked.
A note about a nasty trick though:
Jim Mattox, the former Texas attorney general, pissed off a huge number of people there.
Mr. Mattox, being a Clinton supporter ("a personal friend" in his words), saw the writing on the wall, and tried a procedural trick to completely nullify the entire slate of delages from the county.
After the caucus was completed and the ultimate tally was done, the entire convention had to ratify the results.
According to the rules this requires a quorum be present to certify/vote for the results. A fair number of people left, and Mr. Mattox wanted to do a quorum call to see if there was not enough people there to certify the results.
It was eventually ruled that there was a quorum present, and the final slate was passed by a unanymous voice vote, but the way that one guy was willing to completely invalidate the whole process because his candidate wasn't going to get the nod, really made a lot of people mad.
Not mad enough to vote for McCain though.
There wasn't anybody present out of the 900+ people that indicated that they would switch votes in the fall if their person didn't get the nod. They might have simply been being quiet, but several speakers very pointedly outlined the rather stark contrast between the Dems and McCain.
There might be some gleeful proclemations from Republicans about that poll, but I think the majority of Dems have enough common sense to realize what such a vote would do.
oh the parallels
How many of those McCain contracts are you going to buy up?
or maybe they will realize they don't want to vote for a black man.
Couple of things - Obama not winning the aforementioned states is, in fact, not an issue here. How he or Hillary matches up with McCain in a general election is not the same thing as how they match up in a Democratic primary. This has held true in previous elections, and Hillary's seeming strength in larger states during primaries is not an indicator of overall success.
Secondly - you're drawing some conclusions from that "1/4 of the other camp will vote for McCain" thing that just won't hold. Let's assume Hillary loses, and some of her more vociferous women supporters think of voting for McCain. Then they read the front page and realize he doesn't understand contraceptive use and AIDS. The vast majority of these individuals will come home once their anger has settled. What you say when polled during a heated contest is not how you're going to end up pulling the lever.
Also - put Hillary on the ticket and see how fast those down-the-line races in the House and Senate turn red. One thing I'll say for Obama - people can ride his coattails to Congressional victory in November. There's no way that happens with the Clintons.
can we agree that Obama will need every last democrat to vote for him to stand a chance? in your opinion, of the 25% who are polled what is the least amount Obama would need to win states like PA?
I agree , although I like clinton, she would make it harder for some in the purple districts to win.
I have no statistical data to back up my predictions just political hunches..
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