Pennsylvania Primary

[Nbadan]

How do you think the final delegate count for Pennsylvania will wind up?

[Nbadan]

The most accurate polling organization to date in this primary season has it close...

Source: Public Policy Polling
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE April 21, 2008
INTERVIEWS: DEAN DEBNAM 888-621-6988 / 919-880-4888 (serious media
inquiries only please, other questions can be directed to Tom Jensen)
QUESTIONS ABOUT THE POLL: TOM JENSEN 919-744-6312

Final Pennsylvania Poll Shows Tight Race

Raleigh, N.C. – Public Policy Polling’s final survey in Pennsylvania continues to show
an extremely tight race. Barack Obama has a 49-46 lead over Hillary Clinton in the state.

This is the fourth week in a row PPP has shown the race within three points. Obama had
a three point edge last week, Clinton had the three point advantage two weeks ago, and
Obama was up two three weeks ago.

“With such a close race, the winner of the Pennsylvania primary is going to come down
to turnout,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “Obama leads 58-32
in the metro Philadelphia area. If there is huge turnout there he has a chance.”

When people were initially asked who they supported in the poll Obama showed a 47-43
advantage. Undecided respondents were asked if they were leaning toward one of the
candidates and the 49-46 lead comes with those factored in.

Obama’s small lead comes from his standard coalition of men, black and younger voters.
He leads 55-34 with men and 81-12 with African Americans. He has a 50-39 edge with
voters ages 18-29 and 49-41 with those between 30-45.

Public Policy Polling

[Nbadan]

Why Penn. doesn't matter....what the M$M won't tell you..

If these numbers generally hold true, giving each candidate 50% of the undecideds, we'll end up with these delegate counts:

Clinton wins PA 52.2% - 45.9% ... 84 Delegates to 74
Clinton wins IN 52.0% - 46.0% ... 38 Delegates to 34
Obama wins NC 58.7% - 39.3% ... 69 Delegates to 46

Total change by May 6:

Clinton + 168, Obama + 177

But let's say she does much better.

Give her 56% to 44% in PA: 88 Delegates to 70
Give her 54.5% to 45.5% in IN: 39 Delegates to 33
Give her 43.5% to 56.5% in NC: 50 Delegates to 65

Clinton +177, Obama +168

Ever heard the phrase, Too little, too late?

That leads to the following totals:

Clinton 1685, Obama 1815

Obama leads by 130 in the best case scenario for Hillary on May 6.

Now guess what? After that there are just 220 Pledged Delegates up for grabs, and 308 Superdelegates.

Let's say something crazy happens and Clinton wins the remaining PD's, 130 to 90.

Final Delegate Count without Undeclared Supers:

Clinton 1815, Obama 1905

Obama still wins by 90 delegates. If MI and FL were counted as-is (with Uncommitted vote in MI going to Obama), he would still be ahead by 34 delegates.

In that EXTREMELY unlikely scenario, Clinton would need to win 59.8% of the remaining undeclared Supers, vs 51.3% for Obama to clinch the nomination.

MUCH more likely, however, would be for MI and FL to remain uncounted until there is a nominee. Howard Dean has made it pretty clear that this is the outcome he prefers.

In that case, Clinton needs to overcome a minimum 90-delegate lead among 308 Supers.

So, she'd need 67.9% of them. Obama could clinch it with only 38.6% of them.

-----------

The longer this goes on, the more people will be swayed by the math and the more Superdelegates will jump off the fence and endorse one or the other. Since all the biggest states will have voted by May 6, I expect to see a Superdelegate Landslide soon after North Carolina.

[boutons_]

It's over.

The lying, uninsipring mean, negative and her lying, angry, negative husband need get of out of the way. They lost weeks ago and have no chance of winning, the arithmetic has been clear for weeks. The Clintons only contribution now is destroying Obama and destroying the Dems' election chances.

[George Gervin's Afro]

It's over.

The lying, uninsipring mean, negative and her lying, angry, negative husband need get of out of the way. They lost weeks ago and have no chance of winning, the arithmetic has been clear for weeks. The Clintons only contribution now is destroying Obama and destroying the Dems' election chances.

Obama campaigns the same hillary does and he is for change. Hillary campaigns the way obama does and she is bringing down the party...

you obama guys never cease to amaze me. the same people who call those on the right dumb, stupid, naive are guilty of being dumb, stupid, and naive..3

Man up and admit Obama and Hillary are guilty of the same things.. I can admit that and I support the ... Obama says that he is different and campaigns as suhch..yet in PA his campaign is sending out rolling phone calls dragging Clinton through the mud using personal insults.. no media attention yet we have boutons claiming that the 'negative and lying ' is bringing down the party.. Boutons he me clear OBAMA HAS A ZERO SHOT TO WIN NOVEMBER AND IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH CLINTON.

[xrayzebra]

It's over.

The lying, uninsipring mean, negative and her lying, angry, negative husband need get of out of the way. They lost weeks ago and have no chance of winning, the arithmetic has been clear for weeks. The Clintons only contribution now is destroying Obama and destroying the Dems' election chances.

Hmmmmm, guess Rush Limbaughs "Operation Chaos"
worked so well it has boutons in a lather......

[JoeChalupa]

I see Hillary with a big win in PA that will give her momentum and all the negative against Obama is taking a toll and I think it will lead to a more hostile end to democratic nomination and the great benefactor of it all will be John McCain.

Yes, I'll say it. Right now I see John McCain as the man to beat. As much as conservatives ed and moaned about McCain winnng the Republican nomination it is now CLEAR proof that he IS the best choice for them. Any other republican wouldn't be doing near as good as McCain in the polls since he, at least IMO, is not a Bush cronie.

I'm still supporting Obama but I see the shift happening to Hillary.

[clambake]

you're picturing boutons covered in lather?

why so gay, ray?

[JoeChalupa]

Obama campaigns the same hillary does and he is for change. Hillary campaigns the way obama does and she is bringing down the party...

you obama guys never cease to amaze me. the same people who call those on the right dumb, stupid, naive are guilty of being dumb, stupid, and naive..3

Man up and admit Obama and Hillary are guilty of the same things.. I can admit that and I support the ... Obama says that he is different and campaigns as suhch..yet in PA his campaign is sending out rolling phone calls dragging Clinton through the mud using personal insults.. no media attention yet we have boutons claiming that the 'negative and lying ' is bringing down the party.. Boutons he me clear OBAMA HAS A ZERO SHOT TO WIN NOVEMBER AND IT HAS NOTHING TO DO WITH CLINTON.

I'm an Obama supporter and I agree with some of your points. The damage to Obama has been done and the republicans are going to use everything that Hillary is and then some.

I wouldn't say Obama has no chance of winning but unless the American voter wises up. Obama had, IMO, no choice but to join Clinton and go negative. There is only so much of being the nice guy can work for you.

WAKE UP AMERICA!!!!!

Yeeeeeeeeeeeaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh!!!

[George Gervin's Afro]

Hmmmmm, guess Rush Limbaughs "Operation Chaos"
worked so well it has boutons in a lather......

ray hush is an entertainer... i heard he was depressed that old newt signed on with pelosi to go green.. hush is caters to the non thinkers of this country.... hence why he's your hero..

[clambake]

hey george, how does hillary have a chance in the end?

don't you think she should exit?

[George Gervin's Afro]

hey george, how does hillary have a chance in the end?

don't you think she should exit?

If she loses today she should quit tonight.

What if she overtakes him in the popular vote? Would that be a consideration when neither candidate can reach the 2,025 delegate vote? I have heard from the oabamaniacs that the Super Delegates should vote different ways.. on one hand I hear that the SD should vote the way their cons uents voted.. well that poses a problem because there are SD whose cons uents voted for Hillary...

Another issue for the oabams supportes and the Super Delegates.. I have read and heard that "They should vote the way of the will of the people!! "Well that sounds nice but they are silent when the possibility exists that she could win the popular vote.. then what?

So you ask me to decide when she should quit when she could realistically win the popular vote and carry all of the bellweather states... Let's be honest no one ever imagined that this scenerio could occur and at this point she still has a shot to win...

If a person's lifetime goal is to be President then who has the right to force them to quit when there still is a chance? Take Clinton out of the equation and you would probably get many people agreeing that the only person who should be able to decide when they should quit is the person running..

[peewee's lovechild]

If she loses today she should quit tonight.

I agree.

If Hillary doesn't win it today, she needs to let it go.

Today is do or die.

[florige]

I agree.

If Hillary doesn't win it today, she needs to let it go.

Today is do or die.

I'm agreeing with Joe. I think she wins big today and this thing will drag out to the convention. It will take a miracle for Obama to flat out beat her today.

[Kermit]

She's not going to lose. Expect an 8-10% victory for Hillary and more of the same for the next couple of months.

[florige]

She's not going to lose. Expect an 8-10% victory for Hillary and more of the same for the next couple of months.

I think she has as much of a chance winning NC that Obama has winning PA. Very unlikely.

[peewee's lovechild]

I think she has as much of a chance winning NC that Obama has winning PA. Very unlikely.

Yea, that's going to be tough for her.

[xrayzebra]

She's talking convention. And I think she means it. She is in this
thing to the very end.

I heard an interesting theory the other day. She will stay in to
damage Obama to the extent he cant beat McCain. The she will
run again in the next Presidential election. She knows she cant win this time
around but if Obama makes it, she wont be able to run in the
next Presidential because he will go for number two. That is
unless he screws up badly in his first term, then no Dimm would
have a chance.

Sounds screwy, but then it is the Clintons we are talking about!

[JoeChalupa]

She's talking convention. And I think she means it. She is in this
thing to the very end.

I heard an interesting theory the other day. She will stay in to
damage Obama to the extent he cant beat McCain. The she will
run again in the next Presidential election. She knows she cant win this time
around but if Obama makes it, she wont be able to run in the
next Presidential because he will go for number two. That is
unless he screws up badly in his first term, then no Dimm would
have a chance.

Sounds screwy, but then it is the Clintons we are talking about!

I've heard that theory too and I do feel that Hillary is "bitter" since I'm sure at the beginning she was positive she would easily have the nomination wrapped up and never thought Obama would be such a formidable challenger to the throne she so much thought was hers.
It is not like this is McCain's first attempt to win the Republican nomination. I think both Barack and Hillary will run again if either loses the nomination. Barack has plenty of time.

[Nbadan]

What if she overtakes him in the popular vote? Would that be a consideration when neither candidate can reach the 2,025 delegate vote? I have heard from the oabamaniacs that the Super Delegates should vote different ways.. on one hand I hear that the SD should vote the way their cons uents voted.. well that poses a problem because there are SD whose cons uents voted for Hillary...

How is Hillary going to win the popular vote? Obama is ahead by almost 850,000 votes, even if you counted Michigan (which we won't) Obama still leads by 750,000 votes...so tell us how Hillary can win the delegate vote or the popular vote..

[ClingingMars]

Operation Chaos will cause a complete victory by Hillary. And the election will continue...

- Mars

[Nbadan]

Operation Chaos will cause a complete victory by Hillary. And the election will continue...

- Mars

Operation Chaos is a joke, Rush is a joke...Republicant's should ask themselves why Rush is supporting Hillary while vilifying his own party's candidate...

[Nbadan]

Exit polls, exit polls, exit polls...

5PM EXIT POLL. CLINTON 52% OBAMA 48%

Drudge...

[Nbadan]

Not expecting a stunner in Penn, but...

On the Verge of a Stunner in Pennsylvania?

Hold on to your hats. I've gotten the usual word of the exit poll results from one of my usual reliable sources. He notes that Obama traditionally over-performs in the earliest exit polls, and that he expects the numbers to change as the night wears on - perhaps a reversal.

But right now, the exits are saying Obama 52 percent, Clinton 47 percent.

Take these results with the usual grains of salt and skepticism. I'm told that Obama is carrying blue collar workers two to one, and he's winning Philadelphia in the neighborhood of three to one.

As usual, if you're a Pennsylvanian and haven't voted yet, don't let these or any other numbers discourage you.

Campaign Spot

[PEP]

I voted for Hillary.

Nobama's support peaks at around 44%. There arent enough blacks to get him to the White House and there's too many whites who wont vote for a black man.

And what about the Hillary or Obama supporters that will stay home or vote for McCain in November? Or do you think think they'll fall in line and vote for the Democratic nominee?