Hollinger: Spurs have Momentum, Little Else

[LilMissSPURfect]

spurs win and end this mofo thursday nite...

[Manu's Bald Spot]

Then why bother playing the games? Hollinger ignores the actual play and trends and things in favor of stats. That's why his stats are dust in the wind. Sure, history isn't on our side - I don't fault him for pointing that out. But to only look at historical statistics while ignoring real factors - less than healthy Tim Duncan, change in rebound disparity, etc - just shows that he doesn't understand the game.

You can't rely solely on stats, and that's why I don't respect Hollinger. He clings to them because he doesn't get or appreciate the game as a game that isn't predetermined by statistical expectations.

I agree, stats don't mean that much when compared to actual play and trends. I don't think he's saying that we're going to lose, not at all. Maybe I'm reading the article in a different manner, but all I think he's trying to point out is that a ton of people have been declaring the spurs winners in this series when all we've done is just tie the series. I think that's his main point from the article, which I do agree with somewhat cuz we haven't done anything except take care of our business at home. With his stats model, the most important thing to take out of it, IMO, is to use them as an indicator of the big picture, which in this case states that it's hard for the lower seed to win a series when they're down 2-0. By no means should we use the stats as the absolute truth.

Then again, didn't Hollinger say we're losing this series in 7?? I think in the end, the spurs will show him that come playoff team, no team is tougher

[DarrinS]

Hollinger is a stat dork and one of the few people that picked the Hornets.

[Jimcs50]

This why I am still going to play poker tonight and watch the game later delayed, because I just know that the Spurs are going to get their asses killed.

[MoSpur]

His articles bore me.

[Parkerlooms]

90 percent of statistics can be made to say anything 50 percent of the time.

[ambchang]

The problem with the article is that it assumes all the series in which the home team won the 1st 4 games are played by the same, or at least similar, teams. To say that, historically, teams in the Spurs' situation would have a 17.5% chance of winning the series would be correct, but to say

So it might shock you to learn what the historical data says. Depending on what aspect of history you wish to emphasize most, the Spurs' chances come in somewhere between 0 and 17.5 percent.

is not.

This is not a case of saying in the past hundred years, May 13th rained 18 times, therefore May 13th has an 18% chance of raining (and even that is incorrect, as that is the reason we have weather forecasts that based weather on satellite images instead of data from the last 100 years), this is even more erraneous in the fac that this is the first time this Spurs team have met this Hornets team in a playoff environment. There is no historical data. The only forecast people can come up with so far is to base it on the last 4 games, and to some extent, the 4 regular season games.

Road teams who dropped the first two but comes back to the tie the series didn't win or lose because of historical data, they MAKE UP the historical data.

[dbreiden83080]

If Duncan wasn't sick in games 1 and 2 we would probably be up 3-1 right now on these clowns. Bottom line it is 2-2, i feel we are the better team, we bring our A game tonight and Spurs are gonna win.

[K-State Spur]

The typical reaction to Hollinger: anger, namecalling, citing exceptions - and never any refutations.

the results themselves have offered plenty of refutations. san antonio shouldn't still be playing according to his numbers.

[tmtcsc]

Historically, John Hollinger has proven to be a Maverick homer and a numbers nerd. Im surprised he was able to pry his lips off of Dirk's tool long enough to type his nonsense.

History, Shmistory...It's best of 3 and if we play solid D we have a good chance of winning this series. And why dismiss the 4 teams that over came 2-0 in last 5 years. If that says anything, it says that history has no bearing on the present. They aren't the same teams.

Idiocrat.

[NRHector]

why do people keep posting columns of this jerk in SP if he keeps underestimating the spurs

[NoMoneyDown]

Seeing as how Hollinger likes using statistics to base predictions on, he should understand he is 0-1 this year prognosticating Spurs PO round victories. So, based on statistics, his prediction for a NO G5 victory doesn't hold much water to me. Statistically speaking, of course.

[K-State Spur]

Seriously, it maddens me that he actually thinks his "models and #'s" are actually right.

Someone needs to tell him, this is sports, not quantum physics. That's why people love sports and especially the playoffs; it's highly unpredictable. You can't base anything on #'s of the past or if a team hasn't come back from so and so before because anything is possible. How many teams in the last 2 years alone, came back to win the Series in 6 after losing the first two games?

His model's aren't even using the right variables to project a win/loss and that's whats more annoying to me.

it was one thing when he was just harping about PER, but his playoff odds formula is just crap (the only bad thing about the championship last year was that the Spurs inadvertently gave some credence to it).

, it was still pretty late in the season when he was touting the Raptors as one of the top teams in the league. funny that he never mentions that now...

[said7]

While i think statistics can be a valuable tool, I'd like to see a little smaller test group.

I think these stats are lopsided just based on the fact that it factors in first round series'. An 6-8th seed (in most NBA years) will not comeback in a series.

It kinda just throws the losers in the pile.

[gwidlon]

this guy Hollinger actually thinks that statistics work that way ....

tell you what, let me throw a coin 4 times ....
ok: 1 head and 3 tails

this Hollinger will say that there is (4/3) 75% chance that next throw is tail or even worse, that next throw will probably be head just to get closer to 50%

[1Parker1]

Ray (San Antonio): Hey John, How come you go to NO for their home games but not here to SA? Come take a visit to the Lone Star State.

John Hollinger: (4:57 PM ET ) Actually, I was in the Land of Crack Smoking Highway Interchanges for Games 3 and 4. Nice of your city planners to repair every highway in town at the same time. That took some real foresight.

John Hollinger: (4:57 PM ET ) On a positive note, Rosario's remains tremendous.

He also trashes SA, the city, in his chat.

[Budkin]

Hollinger is a joke. That is all.

[awktalk]

Hollinger has the same record as Cheney and his Junta. Wrong wrong wrong wrong wrong. Wrong about everything. This is the same guy who took the Suns in 6.

Ignore the village idiot unless he's juggling knives.

[awktalk]

Ray (San Antonio): Hey John, How come you go to NO for their home games but not here to SA? Come take a visit to the Lone Star State.

SportsNation John Hollinger: (4:57 PM ET ) Actually, I was in the Land of Crack Smoking Highway Interchanges for Games 3 and 4. Nice of your city planners to repair every highway in town at the same time. That took some real foresight.

More SA bashing from this loser. Ignore him. He knows nothing but his paycheck

[awktalk]

And more bashing. This man should be on the Spururist watchlist at SAT.

Chris (Phoenix): JA Adonde said in his chat last week that everyone calling the Spurs floppers is getting old, and i totally agree. But you know what else is getting old, the Spurs flopping!

SportsNation John Hollinger: (5:01 PM ET ) If you're upset now, wait til you see Tiago Splitter next year. Cut from the same cloth.

[Cry Havoc]

What are the odds of a player like Peja going from two 20+ point games in games 1 and 2 to two sub-10 point games in 3 and 4?

I'll bet it's less than 17.5%. And I'll also bet that it has absolutely NOTHING to do with statistics.

[nkdlunch]

Hollinger has numbers, little else

[SpursFan0728]

If percentage can tell everything
then Duncan will only shoot 50% every night and Kobe will have 0% of getting 82 points.

stupid article IMO

[Pero]

Since the NBA-ABA merger, the "road" team has won the series only 17.5 percent of the time in best-of-7s when the home team won the first four games -- seven out of 40. Five of them came in the past four years, which tricks us into thinking it's more common than it really is: In the two decades prior, it only happened twice.

Hm, how can a road team beat the home team, after the home team won the first four games???

[Cry Havoc]

Hm, how can a road team beat the home team, after the home team won the first four games???

Because the home team for games 3 and 4 is the team without Home Court Advantage.