Ike

[CosmicCowboy]

I suspect it will come in just south of Galveston, maybe 15-20 miles.

Thats my call too and thats WORSE for Galveston and all the communities around Galveston Bay than a direct hit.

[spurs_2108]

Is the feed from the khou station taking forever to load and is buffering alot? Or is it my computer?

[CubanMustGo]

Is the feed from the khou station taking forever to load and is buffering alot? Or is it my computer?

Probably getting the beat out of it

[remingtonbo2001]

Thats my call too and thats WORSE for Galveston and all the communities around Galveston Bay than a direct hit.

Yep.

[spurs_2108]

Well it seems earlier in the morning the feed was coming in without any mess ups and just now this afternoon its getting slow.

[mrsmaalox]

Dang, military has been contacted and asked to be prepared to assist with post-storm rescue of up to 40,000 from stranded positions.

Just passed a huge-ass convoy heading south on 281.

[ashbeeigh]

Did y'all hear the buses in Spring Branch couldn't make it back to Port SA because of the wind? I haven't been outside today..how windy is it..really?

[CubanMustGo]

Well it seems earlier in the morning the feed was coming in without any mess ups and just now this afternoon its getting slow.

More demand, same supply = buffering and retries

[spurs_2108]

^ Yah thats it. Well is anyone else watching it and doing the same thing? It probably is our internet though. Youtube takes forever to load a video also.

[ORION]

Did y'all hear the buses in Spring Branch couldn't make it back to Port SA because of the wind? I haven't been outside today..how windy is it..really?

My toupée flew off

[ashbeeigh]

My toupée flew off

Really?

[ORION]

Really?

and then a dog grabbed it and took off

[CosmicCowboy]

Models just updated. Looks like Ike is gonna hit just south of Galveston/Galveston Bay which is absolute worst case scenario because it is gonna put the absolute highest surge right over the island and into the bay...

[MannyIsGod]

sIt is really ing windy. I'm downtown right now but when I was biking to SAC into it it was pretty much . I only think its around 20mph but I know high profile vehicles in cross winds suck ass. I drove an SUV from the valley right before Hurricane Bret into 30-35 mph winds and it ing SUCKED.

[MannyIsGod]

Man I really wonder how high this storm surge is going to be. I hope the estimates are off because 25 feet of water will pretty much wipe out Gavleston and Port A.

[jcrod]

No wind here on northwest side.

[spurs_2108]

I was downtown for lunch and It was rather windy also.

[JudynTX]

Fire destroys homes on Galveston Island, Texas, today as Ike-spawned floodwaters surge around them. (AP Photo

[Heath Ledger]

Whats up with these gas stations gouging during a time of crisis? I thought that was supposed to be Illegal. I hope all of them mohammads get hung to a pole by their balls and fed ham sandwiches.

[SpursWoman]

It doesn't look like anything >5mph by the airport. At least the leaves on the trees are barely moving.

[timvp]

Wait, wut? Rain is coming?

I've ignored hurricane talk since Katrina because since then every little dust storm has been hyped into being the next killer natural disaster.

[thispego]

Wait, wut? Rain is coming?

I've ignored hurricane talk since Katrina because since then every little dust storm has been hyped into being the next killer natural disaster.

i hate this term, but...

QFT

[CosmicCowboy]

Looks like that guy just checked his policy and realized he didn't have flood insurance...

[KEDA]

fed ham sandwiches.

As long as its Honeybaked Ham its all good!

[lurker23]

500 PM EDT FRI SEP 12 2008

IKE HAS BEEN UNDER CONSTANT SURVEILLANCE BY BOTH NOAA AND AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT. THE DATA INDICATE THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IKE HAS CHANGED VERY LITTLE AND THE HURRICANE CONTINUES WITH A LARGE
WIND FIELD AND LACKS A WELL-DEFINED TIGHT INNER CORE. INITIAL
INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 90 KNOTS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT IKE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT BASICALLY THIS IS LARGELY IRRELEVANT SINCE WE ARE
ONLY TALKING ABOUT A 10-KNOT WIND INCREASE. STATE OF THE ART
TECHNIQUES TO FORECAST INTENSITY AND MY SKILLS ARE NOT GOOD ENOUGH
TO PREDICT SUCH CHANGE WITH PRECISION. ALL WE NEED TO DO AT THIS
THIS TIME IS TO BE READY FOR A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE. IKE WILL
WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL...AND IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME EXTRATROPICAL
BY 48 HOURS...AND MERGE WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM BY 72 HOURS.

IKE HAS CONTINUED ITS PUSH TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND NORTHWEST
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS AND THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE UPPER TEXAS COAST AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. I AM CONFIDENT IN THE TRACK FORECAST SINCE THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE IS VERY TIGHT AND MODELS TAKE IKE NOWHERE BUT TO THE UPPER
TEXAS COAST. ONCE INLAND...IKE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT
BECOMES ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM IN 2 TO 3 DAYS.

ONE SHOULD EMPHASIZE THAT IKE IS A VERY LARGE HURRICANE AND
REGARDLESS OF WHERE THE CENTER OF THE HURRICANE MAKES LANDFALL...THE
EFFECTS WILL BE FELT AT LARGE DISTANCES FROM THE CENTER. IN
ADDITION...THE LARGEST STORM SURGE WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE ONSHORE
FLOW NEAR OR JUST AFTER LANDFALL. A GAGE INDICATES THAT THE WATER
LEVEL HAS ALREADY RISEN MORE THAN 9 FEET ON PART OF GALVESTON
ISLAND.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 12/2100Z 27.7N 93.5W 90 KT
12HR VT 13/0600Z 29.0N 94.8W 95 KT
24HR VT 13/1800Z 31.5N 96.0W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 14/0600Z 35.0N 94.5W 30 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 14/1800Z 38.5N 89.5W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT 15/1800Z...ABSORBED BY A COLD FRONT

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh.../122031.shtml?