How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[MannyIsGod]

Because every post I read from you is doom and gloom.

Yes we're slightly down in the polls, but for sakes there is at least 7 weeks left. That is an eternity in politics.

Every post from me is doom and gloom? Wow you're full of . Did you bother to read THE ING THREAD YOU'RE POSTING IN? My initial posts are doom and gloom?

Are you really going to come at me with this bull ?

Also, tell me what I'm doing - or not doing rather - since I should get out and do something. Either that or admit you've done nothing but talk out of your ass.

[Supergirl]

Repeat after me: The polls are meaningless. You can make a poll say anything you want it to say, depending on who you ask, how you ask, when you ask, etc.

Obama defeated Clinton because his campaign understood the electoral college process better than anyone in history. This is going to win him the election in November too.

A slight "convention bump" was expected, and always fades.

Obama will win all the states Kerry won, and only has to win a few new ones (New Hampshire, New Mexico & Colorado would do it) and this is easily within his grasp.

[whottt]

Repeat after me: The polls are meaningless. You can make a poll say anything you want it to say, depending on who you ask, how you ask, when you ask, etc.

Obama defeated Clinton because his campaign understood the electoral college process better than anyone in history. This is going to win him the election in November too.

A slight "convention bump" was expected, and always fades.

Obama will win all the states Kerry won, and only has to win a few new ones (New Hampshire, New Mexico & Colorado would do it) and this is easily within his grasp.

Why are you in this thread if you aren't interested in polls? This thread is about polls...that is it's entire purpose. We get that you don't think polls matter...we got it after the first 27 times you said it. What we don't get is why you are in it if you think polls are unimportant?

Polls are meaningless...we get it, thank you for your contribution to this thread.

Anything else?

If not then...adieu.

[whottt]

http://www.startribune.com/politics/...KUnciaec8O7EyU



According to that poll...

The state of Minnesota is now a tossup: 45-45

The last time that poll ran Obama had a 13 point lead.

[MannyIsGod]

Repeat after me: The polls are meaningless. You can make a poll say anything you want it to say, depending on who you ask, how you ask, when you ask, etc.

Obama defeated Clinton because his campaign understood the electoral college process better than anyone in history. This is going to win him the election in November too.

A slight "convention bump" was expected, and always fades.

Obama will win all the states Kerry won, and only has to win a few new ones (New Hampshire, New Mexico & Colorado would do it) and this is easily within his grasp.

No Supergirl but don't think the people running these sits know this? Or do you think they're either incredibly stupid, ignorant, or naive and that you're going open their eyes with your "you can make polls say anything" logic?

They've taken all of that into consideration and they do a load of reviewing of the polls back ground information along with their historical accuracy. Different polls are taken with differing degrees of certainty and compiled.

I'm tired of this stupid at ude that Obama is going to win automatically. The truth is that Whottt so far has been incredibly right with the way Pallin has turned this entire race upside down. I think a lot of it has to do with extremely shallow reasons but if you're an Obama supporter and you're not worried you're either incredibly stupid and simply taking for granted or you're not paying attention.

[MannyIsGod]

BTW I love how Mr. Mad ing Hatter never showed his face back in this thread after he proved how re ed he was earlier.

I'll give you some insight so you don't have to foolishly assume next time. I'm going to be in MI this weekend, and part of my time there will be spent volunteering with a certain campaign asswipe. Not that I should have to validate myself in regards to your idiocy, but next time you speak to someone and you try to convince them to vote for Obama don't take the route you took with me.

Assholes like you make me want to vote for McCain.

[TheMadHatter]

Hey my mistake Manny. By the tone of the posts I've seen you make I pegged you for a self-loathing Democrat, the ones that whine and moan when things turn the slightest bit negative. My mistake.

Glad to see your out volunteering your time. I'll be in NM/NV and possibly CO helping GOTV. It's not enough to register voters, you have to get them to vote. I'm trying to tell everyone to vote early instead of waiting till Election Day.

[bobbyjoe]

No Supergirl but don't think the people running these sits know this? Or do you think they're either incredibly stupid, ignorant, or naive and that you're going open their eyes with your "you can make polls say anything" logic?

They've taken all of that into consideration and they do a load of reviewing of the polls back ground information along with their historical accuracy. Different polls are taken with differing degrees of certainty and compiled.

I'm tired of this stupid at ude that Obama is going to win automatically. The truth is that Whottt so far has been incredibly right with the way Pallin has turned this entire race upside down. I think a lot of it has to do with extremely shallow reasons but if you're an Obama supporter and you're not worried you're either incredibly stupid and simply taking for granted or you're not paying attention.

Good point. Obama also debates less effectively than McCain IMO, but is a better speaker. So now that the conventions are over and the venue du jour switches to debates and town halls, this favors McCain. The bar is so low for Palin that unless she makes a complete idiot out of herself, that event won't really change anything.

[TheMadHatter]

The bar is not low for Palin. The Democrats made the smart move in not belittling her like a moron the way they did to Bush. Palin is a superstar right now, the dream candidate. She's as high as can be in the eyes of most voters. Sharp, smart, quick on her feet, great speaker is what most would describe her as.

And as far as debates go, McCain is as boring as a tree stump. He simply does not excite or uplift you the way Obama can, doesn't mean he's a poor debater he's just not exciting.

[T Park]

And as far as debates go, McCain is as boring as a tree stump. He simply does not excite or uplift you the way Obama can, doesn't mean he's a poor debater he's just not exciting.

He doesn't need to be exciting.

Just prove to be the better smarter candidate.

Thats all.

[TheMadHatter]

The debates are actually where I'm most hopeful Obama will gain momentum. As far as the issues go he has everything going for him that the Independent voter will be looking for. It's an environment that he can control for the most part.

Out on the campaign trail McSame can make up lies and say what he wants, but he won't dare repeat those lies to Obama's face because he knows he'll get called out and embarrass himself further on national television.

[florige]

I actually think this is the best map imo....



http://www.electoral-vote.com/

[florige]

[QUOTE=MannyIsGod;2768972]No Supergirl but don't think the people running these sits know this? Or do you think they're either incredibly stupid, ignorant, or naive and that you're going open their eyes with your "you can make polls say anything" logic?

They've taken all of that into consideration and they do a load of reviewing of the polls back ground information along with their historical accuracy. Different polls are taken with differing degrees of certainty and compiled.

I'm tired of this stupid at ude that Obama is going to win automatically. The truth is that Whottt so far has been incredibly right with the way Pallin has turned this entire race upside down. I think a lot of it has to do with extremely shallow reasons but if you're an Obama supporter and you're not worried you're either incredibly stupid and simply taking for granted or you're not paying attention.[/QUOTE]



While no one is saying that Whott is wrong about the turn around in the polls, the point that people are trying to make is that Whott himself is saying that this thing is over in favor of McCain. I think that it's foolish to think that way literally right after a convention, AND before we have had a single debate. This Palin thing is going to die down, then we'll see how the polls are looking. While it is concerning that he has lost his once massive lead, so close after a convention is why alot of people are not worrying too much right now. Now in a couple of weeks Obama is still losing in the polls after the Palin/Biden debate, AND after a McCain/Obama debate, then I will start to worry.

[whottt]

Real Clear Politics now has McCain up 227-207
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

[whottt]

Latest Rasmussen National has McCain up 50-47.

[whottt]

Second Poll that seems to confirm Minnesota is slipping away from the Democrats:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/index.html

Minnesota SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2

[Findog]

Second Poll that seems to confirm Minnesota is slipping away from the Democrats:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/index.html

Minnesota SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2

Democrats are keeping Minnesota.

[MannyIsGod]

Hey my mistake Manny. By the tone of the posts I've seen you make I pegged you for a self-loathing Democrat, the ones that whine and moan when things turn the slightest bit negative. My mistake.

Glad to see your out volunteering your time. I'll be in NM/NV and possibly CO helping GOTV. It's not enough to register voters, you have to get them to vote. I'm trying to tell everyone to vote early instead of waiting till Election Day.

Good job in coming correct. I simply see many of the same mistakes being repeated from 4 years ago. Democrats can't just hope that Bush is going to hand them the White House because thats not happening.

[MannyIsGod]

While no one is saying that Whott is wrong about the turn around in the polls, the point that people are trying to make is that Whott himself is saying that this thing is over in favor of McCain. I think that it's foolish to think that way literally right after a convention, AND before we have had a single debate. This Palin thing is going to die down, then we'll see how the polls are looking. While it is concerning that he has lost his once massive lead, so close after a convention is why alot of people are not worrying too much right now. Now in a couple of weeks Obama is still losing in the polls after the Palin/Biden debate, AND after a McCain/Obama debate, then I will start to worry.

I can see what you're saying and while I can't totally agree with it I understand. The difference for me is that I had a much higher bar for Obama. I think so far we've seen a failure of Obama's startegy as well as Deans. If Democrats don't murder the Republicans in congress I don't even know what to say.

In the end, though, I'm more dissapointed with the American people once again. There has always been spin in campaigns, but right now the McCain campaign is literally lying through their teeth on so many levels. They're taking their weaknesses and lying about them so much in order to make them strengths. Its mind blowing and even some Republican stratagists are amazed (and afraid that it will bite them in the ass - i don't give American people that much credit).

We'll see, but right now its not looking good. The bounce theory is true to an extent, but the bounce is getting larger than anticipated.

[Crookshanks]

Second Poll that seems to confirm Minnesota is slipping away from the Democrats:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...lls/index.html

Minnesota SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2

Sunday, September 14

National Gallup Tracking McCain 47, Obama 45 McCain +2
National Rasmussen Tracking McCain 50, Obama 47 McCain +3
Minnesota Star Tribune Obama 45, McCain 45 Tie
Minnesota SurveyUSA Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2
Iowa Des Moines Register Obama 52, McCain 40 Obama +12
Utah Deseret News McCain 62, Obama 24 McCain +38

SOME OTHER INTERESTING DEVELOPMENTS

Saturday, September 13

Nevada Rasmussen McCain 49, Obama 46 McCain +3
National Hotline/FD Tracking McCain 45, Obama 44 McCain +1
National Newsweek McCain 46, Obama 46 Tie
South Dakota Rasmussen McCain 54, Obama 37 McCain +17
New Jersey Marist Obama 48, McCain 45 Obama +3
Friday, September 12

Missouri Rasmussen McCain 51, Obama 46 McCain +5
Oklahoma Rasmussen McCain 63, Obama 32 McCain +31
Washington Rasmussen Obama 49, McCain 47 Obama +2
Oregon Hoffman Research (R) Obama 46, McCain 39 Obama +7
Washington Elway Poll* Obama 46, McCain 38 Obama +8
National Associated Press/GfK McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4
Ohio Univ. of Cinci McCain 48, Obama 44 McCain +4
National Associated Press/GfK McCain 48, Obama 44, Nader 1, Barr 1 McCain +4

[TheMadHatter]

Manny what you need to understand is that this country's electorate is EXTREMELY polarized. It really doesn't matter what shape the economy is in, half the country will vote R no matter what the conditions are. Obama being black certainly doesn't help, there is a lot of racism in the South that is still prevalent today.

The fact that a black candidate can legitimately become President is a huge step IMHO considering how ass backwards the South still is.

[101A]

Manny what you need to understand is that this country's electorate is EXTREMELY polarized. It really doesn't matter what shape the economy is in, half the country will vote R no matter what the conditions are. Obama being black certainly doesn't help, there is a lot of racism in the South that is still prevalent today.

The fact that a black candidate can legitimately become President is a huge step IMHO considering how ass backwards the South still is.

I lived in Texas for the first 37 years of my life; and have lived in Pa for 3. It is AT LEAST as racist here as there.

IMO you stereotype is just that.

[101A]

I can see what you're saying and while I can't totally agree with it I understand. The difference for me is that I had a much higher bar for Obama. I think so far we've seen a failure of Obama's startegy as well as Deans. If Democrats don't murder the Republicans in congress I don't even know what to say.

In the end, though, I'm more dissapointed with the American people once again. There has always been spin in campaigns, but right now the McCain campaign is literally lying through their teeth on so many levels. They're taking their weaknesses and lying about them so much in order to make them strengths. Its mind blowing and even some Republican stratagists are amazed (and afraid that it will bite them in the ass - i don't give American people that much credit).

We'll see, but right now its not looking good. The bounce theory is true to an extent, but the bounce is getting larger than anticipated.

Dems lie too, don't kid yourself.

McCain NEVER said he wanted to keep troops in Iraq for 100 years.

McCain DID NOT say that you're not wealthy unless you make 5,000,000 per year.

That is, unless you take each statement out of context.

They ALL do it, the Republicans are better at it.

I think the problem for Dems is, simply, we are not a liberal country; and they nominated a VERY liberal candidate, who picked a VERY liberal runningmate.

[whottt]

McCain DID NOT say that you're not wealthy unless you make 5,000,000 per year.
.

What's funny is that McCain even laughed and said that comment would wind up as a soundbite even as he was making the joke


Libs are getting too easy...just like everyone knows they are going to start playing the race card now as it's the only card they have to play

[Cant_Be_Faded]

I can see what you're saying and while I can't totally agree with it I understand. The difference for me is that I had a much higher bar for Obama. I think so far we've seen a failure of Obama's startegy as well as Deans. If Democrats don't murder the Republicans in congress I don't even know what to say.

In the end, though, I'm more dissapointed with the American people once again. There has always been spin in campaigns, but right now the McCain campaign is literally lying through their teeth on so many levels. They're taking their weaknesses and lying about them so much in order to make them strengths. Its mind blowing and even some Republican stratagists are amazed (and afraid that it will bite them in the ass - i don't give American people that much credit).

We'll see, but right now its not looking good. The bounce theory is true to an extent, but the bounce is getting larger than anticipated.

The extent to which they are stretching the truth is not getting nearly enough airtime IMO. There was a really good bit on the radio last week about how campaigns have always stretched the truth but this cycle's republican campaign is going to uncharted territories, almost completely making up total BS in their ads and speeches.
And it's working.

This is yet another reason this election is historic, we're witnessing a de-evolution in our politics, as if it were possible to de-evolve any more.

One thing is certain. Republicans sure know how to run a damn campaign. I think its because they acknowledge and understand how stupid the average Marriott voter is.

I'm still hoping this Palin tide will ebb.