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Ahh ok...nice angle then. Wasn't blind faith Obama was going to win though either...and I think that was the impression of many at the time you made it.
FALSE.
A few weeks ago Manny was wanting 3000 bucks on Obama...now while he may still be willing to do that, I guarantee you that at points since he originally made that statement, he's been glad no one took him up on it.
I wish someone had taken me up on it. I would have been free rolling. I'd put 3k on Obama here at 1:1 odds and I'd put up a smaller amount on McCain on intrade with something like 7:3 odds that were flying around then and I'd be freerolling on Obama with zero risk of losing money.
Whottt when I gamble I do so in order to win. I don't think I can do that move now because the intrade prices are nearly 1:1 last I checked.
Ahh ok...nice angle then. Wasn't blind faith Obama was going to win though either...and I think that was the impression of many at the time you made it.
Is all about turnout.
I would say at this stage in the race Obama has a slight lead in most of the battleground states.
The biggest worry for him is PA. He absolutely must win PA, but honestly Bush was AHEAD of Kerry in the PA polls at this stage of the game and still lost. That gives me hope that PA is probably safe, considering Obama is +2-4 pts in most polls. Still, too close for comfort....Obama needs to stretch that lead to +4-6 pts.
ABC News/Washington Post Poll (Likely Voters)-
Obama 52
McCain 43
^could be an outlier. we need more than just one poll.
As a real person I pretty much detest any sort of debate or argument, especially in a social situation....I avoid them like the plague. They just aren't worth it. And yes when I have them as a person I can be offensive...even when I'm trying not to be that way.
Nate from fivethirtyeight.com did some research on how including cell phones in polls adds a bit of support to Obama. (2% or so) Now pew has done some research as well and they've found the same. Most pollsters may be underreporting Obama because of this.
I was listening to Rush earlier and he was talking about this new poll. If you look at the number of people in each party, it shows why Obama's number is so high. Only 28% of the people polled were Republicans! I'm not going to believe any of these polls right now because I think they're slanting them to favor Obama.
And most people won't check the internals of a poll - all they see is Obama ahead by 9 points. IMO, this is done solely to bolster the morale of Obama supporters and demoralize McCain supporters.
They said the same thing about Kerry and cellphones in 2004. I'll believe it when I see it. Plenty of McCain supporters have cells as well.
Show me the internals of a poll that show republicans underrepresented. Feel free to provide links instead of "rush said".
Rush isn't a pollster and doesn't know anything about party ID or weights. The poll is probably an outlier, but Obama is clearly ahead right now outside of the margin of error.
This time we have empirical evidence of the differences. Did they have that in 04 or where they just assuming?
There's your first problem. Rush likes to lie a lot.
Well thanks for not insulting my intelligence and calling me a name, I mean that seriously.
Obviously, I was off base with my characterization. I expected as much seeing as my impression is limited to this forum.
Also, I have to agree about social situations. BUT, I do start them on purpose...not to espouse my view or even tell someone when they are blatantly wrong on some things (someone argued outloud that McCain was from New Mexico). I in ate them to get other people talking about politics, then I try my best to steer the conversation away from (random topics here, not necessarily real) Bristol's pregnancy, McCains amount of cars, etc. You know, the that doesnt matter.
I do a lot more listening than talking, believe it or not. Just to get them thinking is my aim...not thinking the same as myself.
It think with McCain's move today, and the absolute hugeness of this banking issue - polls to this point might, and might not, mean anything.
McCain pulled this stunt because he's losing and he knows it. He needs to "shake things up." It will be days before today's stuff is reflected in the polls.
Polls are meaningless right now anyway. First of all, we are too far away from November. Second, when a poll consists of 48% democrats, 28% republicans, and disproportioally black...
Think that doesn't skew the results?
I would LOVE to see Rush's source on that. Again, the man lies like there's no tomorrow.
The ABC poll is probably an outlier but the internals seem fine. And the polls are far from meaningless: McCain's sinking in the polls is what prompted today's stunts. One wonders what his internal polling is telling him.
Thing is, only the poll on November 4 matters. Polls have increasingly been innacurate over the years. Hear about the one that shows about 1/3rd of middleclass white democrats won't vote for Obama? I only heard about it. I'm not going to look for it, so don't ask me to.
Did Rush say that also?
Yeah it's right above our posts. Where did you hear it?
I heard it from a local radio news item. I looked it up:
Washington Post-ABC News Poll
Responants who identified themselves as democrats were 38%, republican 28%. Of the remaining 34%, 46% lean democrat and 28% lean republican. That makes a total 54% democrat vs. 38% republican, yet Obama only gets a 52% and McCain gets a 42%... Adjust those to the nominal voters of 45%/45%/10%other and you get McCain 50%, Obama 44%!
Think about what that means, and other details within the poll.
You will find that most polls are not as reported by the leftist media when you read all the internal details.
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