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Man it's like the closer it gets to election time, the more I hold my breath now everyday when I first look at that electoral map.
You would be wrong:
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...amas_lea_1.php
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. With one day of post-debate sampling now incorporated into the three-day tracking poll, there hasn't been much of a change so far in Barack Obama's big lead:
• Gallup*: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 50%, McCain 46%, with a ±2% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 50%, McCain 40%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 52%, McCain 42%, with a ±3% margin of error, compared to a 52%-41% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 49%, McCain 44%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 49%-43% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 50.4%-43.9%, a lead of 6.5 points, pretty much the same as the 50.3%-43.7% Obama lead from yesterday.
*ed. note: Gallup has begun offering two different sub-samples of likely voters, one using a traditional likely-voter model and the other using a modified likely-voter model for an expected higher turnout. For all our composites and Poll Tracker entries, we will be using that second model under the expectation that newly-registered voters and other factors will contribute to a higher turnout this cycle.
Man it's like the closer it gets to election time, the more I hold my breath now everyday when I first look at that electoral map.
How come this thread isn't being updated now that McCain has gained on Obama in national polls in the last few days?
Oct. 13 - Obama +7.3
Oct. 14 - Obama +7.2
Oct. 15 - Obama +7.1
Oct. 16 - Obama +6.8
Oct. 17 - Obama +6.7
Oct. 18 - Obama +5.6
Oct. 19 - Obama +5.0
It's not time for Obama backers to panic but that's not a good trend . . .
Isn't this pretty standard stuff? I always thought polls tighten as the election comes close.
I would actually like to see how the polls look in swing states lately if somebody can post them.
The statistical models predicted a tightening of the vote the closer to the election day. The good news is that Obama isn't dropping below 50% when you average and weight all of the national tracking polls. What appears to be happening is that McCain is consolidating conservative support.
http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpoi...ama_ahea_3.php
Here's our daily composite of the five major national tracking polls. Barack Obama is holding a sizable lead over John McCain, and has slightly expanded it after a momentary dip yesterday:
• Gallup: Obama 51%, McCain 44%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-46% Obama lead yesterday.
• Rasmussen: Obama 51%, McCain 45%, with a ±2% margin of error, compared to a 50%-45% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Hotline/Diageo: Obama 48%, McCain 41%, with a ±3.4% margin of error, compared to a 49%-42% Obama lead from yesterday.
• Research 2000: Obama 50%, McCain 43%, with a ±3% margin of error, unchanged from yesterday.
• Zogby: Obama 48%, McCain 45%, with a ±2.9% margin of error, compared to a 48%-44% Obama lead yesterday.
Adding these polls together and weighting them by the square roots of their sample sizes, Obama is ahead 49.9%-43.9%, a lead of six points, compared to the 49.5%-44.3% Obama lead from yesterday.
Note that this is the first day of polling taken entirely after Wednesday's debate. The pre-debate baseline was an Obama lead of 50.3%-43.7%, meaning that McCain has barely made a dent since then.
This composite of all the tracking polls has Obama up 6, not 5. My prediction is that he takes the popular vote 52-47 or 48 percent for McCain. I think at most the 3rd party vote will be 1.5%.
Two things the polls aren't really showing yet: Obama will get a bounce from Powell's endorsement and solidify his lead with a barrage of big market advertising in battleground states. That five point Obama lead is probably as close as McCain will get from here on out.
I'm curious to see the polls later in the week when the whole Powell endorsement affect has been taken into consideration.
Battleground polls from yesterday:
McCain +1 Ohio Mason/Dixon
McCain +4 Montana Research 2000
Obama +12 Pennsylvania Morning Call
Obama +11 Minnesota Star Tribune
Obama + 13 Minnesota Research 2000
Obama +12 Wisconsin Mason Dixon
McCain +6 West Virginia Mason Dixon
McCain +8 West Virginia PPP
I read an article on Pollster in which most of the top polling experts believe this is structurally a 4-5 point race. It was that way before the veep selections and conventions, and it appears to be returning to that after Palin mania and the economic crisis. I think McCain has a hard time consolidating conservative support and that is where the recent uptick in his numbers is coming from - most likely demoralized Republicans are now answering that they plan to vote for McCain the closer we get to election, and that's being reflected in the likely voter models. That and the recent slime (ACORN, Ayers, Anti-Americanism) is hurting Obama at the margins. The smear garbage is going to keep McCain compe ive but it won't put him over the top.
Meh, the polls are fluctuating around the same equilibrium point. McCain gains and loses on a daily basis. I didn't have regular internet access or time in NM to even check the internet but looking at the trend line for the past 3-4 days everything look pretty much the same.
And not to be overconfident but it really does feel like a two-possession game in the 4th quarter of a football game. That said...
McCain can still win this. Every day he spends playing "offense" in Pennsylvania or is forced to defend North Carolina makes me happy. He should confine all of his campaigning to Florida, Ohio, Virginia and Colorado.
Its also important to remember that McCain only has 2 weeks to go and people are starting to make up their minds. I spoke to very few undecided people this weekend, and half those who were "undecided" were leaning a direction and said something to the effect of "they will probably get my vote".
Thats anecdotal evidence, but I'm pretty sure its in line considering how short time is and how many people are already heading out to do early voting. The Obama GOTV machine is in full gear and the McCain campaign can't compete with it.
After this weekend, I pretty much think the only states that matter to me at this point are NM and CO. OH, FL, VA, and NC are all just as important, but considering Obama has Kerry+IA in a really tight grip, if NM and CO do go blue its ballgame. That being said, we'll know much sooner on election night the status of those other states so if you see NC or VA go blue then I'd probably be willing to bet thats the ballgame right there.
I'm gonna post some pictures in a bit. I got to meet Bill Richardson and some other local politicians and southern NM is blue as right now. They love Richardson so much there and a lot of local officials are killing the GOP.
In fact, outside of yard signs the McCain campaign has absolutely no pressence there nad has virtually written the area off. While we'd run into Obama canvessers on a regular basis, I went all weekend without seeing a single McCain campaign volunteer or employee.
"McCain campaign can't compete with it."
HUSSEIN has to compete with GOP's voter purging/suppression/intimidation campaign.
If HUSSEIN wins, it will be by a lot less than 10 pts, or even 5 pts, seen in the polls.
HUSSEIN's polls lead is extremely precarious and misleading.
Be sure to post pics if you happen to run into Obama or Biden...
Saw Biden at a rally but wasn't able to get close enough to shake his hand. A lot of the other people with us did, but I was working the lines to get out supporters for early voting and the turnout was so huge I wasn't able to get into the plaza to watch him. I got some pictures from a decent distance away but SS had a guard rail barricade set up.
Maybe I'll get luck in OH this next weekend.
Still pretty kickass you got to meet Bill Richardson though. He seems pretty cool.
By this point, I think we should be more focused on the individual states than national polls. Popular vote doesn't mean anything if you lose the electoral vote (ask Al Gore). Here's a snapshot of the electoral count.
Obama just has to put one more state in the solid blue column and it's over.
I don't think Obama is gonna win Ohio. They've been hit hard by NAFTA and there's been a resultant brain drain out of that state.
This is Ohio for you:
It'd be nice of he wins Ohio, but it doesn't look like Ohio is a must win. I remember at the beginning of the general election, the Obama campaign said that they were going to focus on a strategy to win the election without winning Ohio or Florida. Chuck Todd was laughing and saying he didn't see how it was possible. They may do just that.
Yeah, I think it makes it a lot easier for Obama if he gets one or both, but it's nice to know he has more than one path to 270. McCain still has a chance to win this thing, but it means threading the needle and successfully defending the Bush 2004 states minus Iowa and maybe New Mexico.
Man, McCain's list of States is like reading the inbred portion of this nation's geneology.
It has nothing to do with red/blue. But cmon...
If any state has been hit hard by the economy it's Ohio. You would think Obama's economic message would gain some footing there of all places but he hasn't managed to break through. I say let them rot in their ignorance.
This is why Obama's 50 state campaign is paying off now. He doesn't need Ohio. He has so many paths to 270 he can pick and choose where to spend his incredible war chest in the final weeks.
Remember Obama still has a firewall in the Southwest. NM and CO will go blue due to the incredible 70% Hispanic vote that Obama receives. This is all Obama needs to win the Presidency, this is why McCain is staying in PA. He needs to pick off a Kerry state like PA to have a chance in this election.
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