How do McCain or Obama get to 270?

[boutons_]

538 .com is saying HUSSEIN's win probability is 98%+

The election will be a real test of 538's/Nate Silver's accuracy and reputation.

[Nbadan]

Obama is thumping McCain in the early vote, so it's not only likely voters that would have to be 'miscounted' but those who have already voted...

CBS News Survey Shows Democratic Ticket With 19 Point Edge Among Early Voters, 13 Point Lead Among Likely Voters Overall

(CBS) With just three days left until Election Day, a new CBS News poll finds that the Democratic presidential ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden leads its Republican counterpart by 13 points among likely voters, 54 percent to 41 percent. That margin reflects an increase of two points in the Obama-Biden ticket's lead from a CBS News/New York Times poll released Thursday.

About one in five voters say they have already cast their vote, either in person or through the mail, and these early voters prefer the Democratic ticket by an even greater margin. Obama leads among early voters 57 percent to 38 percent, a nineteen point advantage.

The economy is by far the issue of top concern to voters, and they continue to view Obama more favorably on the issue than they do his Republican rival, John McCain. Fifty-one percent of registered voters say Obama would make the economy better, while just 29 percent say McCain would.

On the question of who will raise taxes, the candidates are roughly even: Forty-seven percent say Obama would raise their taxes and 48 percent say McCain would do so.

CBS News

[boutons_]

aka, how Zogby outlies in McNasty's favor:


Zogby Poll Showing McCain Lead Interviews Fewer Democrats Than All Other Surveys

On Saturday morning, Drudge trumpeted the latest one-day finding in John Zogby's latest three-day tracking poll on the presidential race. While Zogby's three-day average still shows a 5-point lead for Barack Obama over John McCain, the pollster notes on his site today that McCain led Obama by one point, 48 to 47, in the last day of surveys.

More cautious than Drudge, however, Zogby says that it's too early to declare that McCain has made decisive gains over Obama. "If McCain has a good day tomorrow, we will eliminate Obama's good day three days ago, and we could really see some tightening in this rolling average. But for now, hold on," Zogby writes.

But as the Huffington Post reported on Thursday when discussing the latest Fox News poll, Zogby has a unique methodology in his polling. He fixes -- or "weights" -- the partisan balance of his respondents, unlike most pollsters. While his admirably transparent and stable practice guarantees a certain methodological sameness from day to day, therefore making any new lead for McCain worth reporting, Zogby's partisan weighting can also raise other questions.

Asked earlier this week what the partisan weighting of their poll currently is, a Zogby aide told the Huffington Post: "Party ID remains at 38 Democratic - 36 Republican - 26 Independent. We have added a point for 18-29 [year old voters], 1.5 for African Americans, and 2 for Hispanics."

Earlier this year, Zogby told me that "party ID is a lead variable, and a major determinant in how people vote. I apply a weight to party ID, and if I see a reason for it to change, I will."

Still, Zogby's two point party ID advantage for Democrats is the smallest of any polling firm. The last four days of the Hotline/Diageo poll show anywhere from a four- to six-point advantage for Democrats -- and a simultaneous seven-point lead for Obama. Gallup's latest surveys indicate that Democrats have an 11-point advantage over Republicans in party ID (including what the firm describes as partisan "leaners").

Zogby's partisan makeup gives even less of a partisan advantage to Democrats than Fox's latest poll, which earned some skepticism, as well.

As for the day-to-day fluctuations in tracking polls, Emory University political scientist Alan Abramowitz says they are "almost entirely due" to random statistical error, or "noise."

"The trackers don't move in sync with each other -- one goes up, another goes down," he tells the Huffington Post. "This is what we are seeing today in fact. Already we see that Obama is down in Zogby but up in DailyKos and Rasmussen. No doubt we'll see more of the same in the next three days. There is no evidence here of any real trend toward McCain in either the national polls or the state polling as smart analysts like Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com and Mark Blumenthal and Charles Franklin of Pollster.com have shown."

For what it's worth, McCain lead pollster Bill McInturff sees things Zogby's way. In a Friday conference call with reporters, McInturff said "I don't see how you have party ID at negative 8 [percent for Republicans]. That's not America ... anywhere in the last generation and a half."

Aside from determining the next president, Tuesday's election might be used to settle a few scores in the polling profession, as well.

[whottt]

Whottt - google is your friend. Your research ing sucks dude. I mean its so easy to
refute you it should be criminal.

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/htm...count01m0.html

That article refutes nothing...by the way, I'm happy to know that a Republican nearly won the Governorship in Washington State...that'd have been the first one since 1981.


And it's funny you think you do a good job of refuting me...since I can't remember you doing that...


What I rememer is you telling me how stupid I was to think that 700 billion was a factor in McCain's bailout plan, and then getting that point stuck up your ass.


Other than I can't think of anything you refuted...I did read a chart incorrectly a couple of days ago...something I didn't spend a whole lot of time arguing btw.


Did anyone ever figure out how the number of eligible voters decreased in 2006?

Early voting or Absentee voting? How much of the county votes by mail? When will those ballots be counted?

Did you read the Early voting web page I linked? It's right there at the bottom. The majority of the county votes early by mail...they only have one in person early voting location in the county...


As someone who is now experienced at early voting having spent the last 2 weeks doing just that, including the last week at an extremely large early voting center...I can tell you that the in person early voting is not going to be that great of a factor in this county if they have only one place to do it at...I don't care if they've been doing non-stop business.

It's the absentee early voting that is greatly down from 2004...and I could have counted the total they have recieved so far, by myself, in about 4-5 days.


Incidentally...the Republicans are running neck and neck with the Democrats in CA in early voting....and that is something that hasn't happened since Reagan won the state.

[whottt]

As a professional mathematician I have to say that if 08 is an honest election, and at this point that's a big IF, then McCain doesn't have a chance of winning...

As a unprofessional mathematician...I think you if you place blind faith on anything with as small of a sample size as the average poll, then you much suck as a professional mathematician.

Just like Hillary Clinton before him, John McCain is learning the harsh reality that is Barack Obama. The race could be 50-50 nationally, and it wouldn't matter. Obama is playing chess, not checkers. McCain has to win every single toss up state, and he'll still come up short.

It is now mathematically impossible for Obama to lose this election. The probability of the polls being so wrong is so incredibly small that the only explanation for a McCain win on Tuesday will be rigged voting machines, period.

As an unprofessional mathematician, I'd like to inform you of the number 4 as in today is November 1st and November 5th is 4 days away, and even if your unfounded belief in the soundness of the mathematical probabitly of the average poll was actually founded...you'd still be making a miscalculation by juding what will happen on November 4th by what polls are saying on November 1st and earlier...

[MannyIsGod]

Whottt - they aren't counting them fast enough and thats why it looks like its lower. If that doesn't refute your notion that it shows a bad trend then I don't know what will.

[whottt]

Whottt - they aren't counting them fast enough and thats why it looks like its lower. If that doesn't refute your notion that it shows a bad trend then I don't know what will.

That article has next to nothing to do with counting total ballots received early and just about everything to do with tallying votes on Election night...and beyond. It's essentially got nothing to do with the point I made...


A better point would be to just say they probably haven't received all the early absentee ballots yet...a valid point, but the early votes are still lagging substantially compared to 04.

That total is 100% absentee ballots btw....the in person early voting might be around 100k based on my experience in early voting in Travis County(which had literally dozens and dozens of early voting locations), and it's already factored in.

[MannyIsGod]

New Mexico in 2004 had 775,000 (roughly) votes counted for the entire election. Early Voting numbers for the state this time are 450,000 or so with a 54-33 Democrat edge at the polls (rest Ind).

The number of doors knocked in this state today by the Obama campaign are absolutely amazing. The GOTV machine is incredible and the plans for the 4th are blowing my mind.

This is so ing awesome I can't even begin to tell you how pumped up the volunteers and office staff where tonight here in Las Cruces.

Everyone was looking really tired after months of long hours, but when Senator Obama called on a confrence call tonight it really reinvigorated the entire office here. No one feels tired now.

[MannyIsGod]

That article has next to nothing to do with counting total ballots received early and just about everything to do with tallying votes on Election night...and beyond. It's essentially got nothing to do with the point I made...


A better point would be to just say they probably haven't received all the early absentee ballots yet...a valid point, but the early votes are still lagging substantially compared to 04.

That total is 100% absentee ballots btw....the in person early voting might be around 100k, already factored in.

Sigh

Ammons said the new machines should be ready to go by spring. In the meantime, the county is relying on its old machines, which were designed to count poll ballots, not mail ballots. Two-thirds of King County voters now vote by mail.

Whottt. Read. .

[MannyIsGod]

http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/local/...ml?source=mypi

[MannyIsGod]

BTW if you really believe what you're saying predict that Washington goes Red and make a bet with me about it. Man up, pussy.

[whottt]

Sigh



Whottt. Read. .

Manny. Comprehend. .


At least when I am ing up I catch it.

They're talking about tallying votes on Election night, which is when they will open and count those absentee ballots, using machines that weren't designed to count them.


They don't tally the votes until the day of the election. That is what they are referring to.

They are not talking about a general count of the number of unopened early mail-in ballots they have recieved.


Like I said...I could have counted 350 thousand unopened absentee ballots in 4 or 5 days...all by myself.

[whottt]

Link from the King County website:

http://www.metrokc.gov/elections/avfaq.htm

Absentee ballots should be postmarked no later than the election day and will be tallied on election day at the earliest. While the County will still require several days to finalize the absentee ballot tabulations, the County is quite excited about being able to provide enhanced reporting of absentee ballot tabulations, such as reporting by precinct.



Their post office probably has a machine that count 350 k envelopes in a couple of hours....

[whottt]

BTW if you really believe what you're saying predict that Washington goes Red and make a bet with me about it. Man up, pussy.

Since voter fraud happened in the last election I'd be a fool to take that bet.

[whottt]

Here's a guy that claims he works for a polling firm that does internal polling for McCain.

You guys obviously won't believe any of this, nor do I expect you to...but it sounds about right to me.



Basically he says McCain is up on Obama in internal polling in New Jersey, Michigan and way way up in Pennsylvania....


He even says McCain is within 1 point in California.


You know why it sounds right to me? Because Obama didn't win any of those damn states in the primary...that's why.


This is what happens when you give the nomination to a guy incapable of winning any major blue states in the primary.


I bet Obama doesn't have voter fraud in place for places like NJ....and that's why I always felt pretty good making my prediction of a McCain landslide, because not even the planned voter fraud would prevent the asskicking he's going to get in this election.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah well I know a guy who does internal polling for Obama and he says that Obama is up 82 in Texas.

[/antiwhottt]

[MannyIsGod]

Whottt do you want to bet on any of those states going red? No right?

Continue throwing that against the wall. SOMETHING will stick.

[whottt]

Yeah well like it or not...Obama didn't win any of these states in the primaries...I know it's difficult for yellowdog to comprehend that not every one votes by party...but the fact that both parties have produced Presidents pretty consistently pretty much proves that in fact, a large segment of Americans do not vote by party.

I myself am one of them...



Who is throwing ? I've been pretty consistent all along...


I have never wavered for one second since the Palin nomination that McCain is going to win this big...


I wish this guy would have provided the NY internal polls.



Obama didn't win the primaries in these states...it matters.

[whottt]

So you would have picked Obama if he picked Webb, EVEN with the Palin pickup by McCain?

Eh...when you put it like that, probably not.


All I know is I was leaning towards Obama until he picked Biden and from that point on I began leaning away until the unfair smears, attacks, clear media dishonety, and doublestandard on Palin clinched that I wouldn't be supporting Obama.


I can't say for certain those other choices would have made a difference, but I never locked into the idea of an Obama Presidency like many of you did, he pickded Biden right as I was in the process of doing that, and I dislike Joe Biden intensely and have said so many times on SpursTalk prior to his selection...if that hadn't happened and I got locked in, I probably would have been loathe to change my mind, Palin or not.


Let me be clear on this...
I dislike Joe Biden much more than I dislike Obama. the second I hear his name dishonesty and a lack of integrity are the first things that pop into my head...his stupidity and the fact that he's a commie are the second.

He's been running for the Presidency in one form or another since 1988...and I've never once considered voting for him for a split second. I dislike this guy more than just about any other politician in the US, as he's got a big stupid mouth and always has.

Never considered voting for him for Pres...

And if you check his performances in elections outside of Delaware...no one else has either.

[boutons_]

If HUSSEIN loses, even a LOT of Repugs will be proved wrong:

"Right now, it's very clearly Obama's to lose, and I think his chances of doing so are pretty minimal," said Republican Armey, the former House majority leader from Texas. He said the possibility of a McCain comeback is "getting down to slim-to-none."

[ChumpDumper]

Whottt do you want to bet on any of those states going red? No right?

Continue throwing that against the wall. SOMETHING will stick.

The fact he hasn't taken any bets says a lot.

[NASCARdad]

I'm calling it now. McCain WILL win the election so all you Obama suckers can get ready to eat a super sized plate of crow.

[Shastafarian]

I'm calling it now. McCain WILL win the election so all you Obama suckers can get ready to eat a super sized plate of crow.

Ok will you hang around long enough to eat yours should McCain lose?

[Cry Havoc]

Ok will you hang around long enough to eat yours should McCain lose?

Sure he will. He'll be watching cars go around in a circle while he eats himself into oblivion.

[boutons_]

Whott, Aggie, Clanny, NASCARdad, have you placed your bets where your mouths are?

http://politics.betfair.com