I agree it's mostly about winning. If the Cavs can win a ring in the next two years, LeBron will probably stay.
But if the Cavs DON'T win a ring this year, or put a strong early showing next year, I wouldn't be surprised if LeBron gets traded before the trade deadline as the Cavs try to get some trade value out of him.
LeBron doesn't want to be the next Charles Barkley.

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