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Well all but one of them are already wrong
Well all but one of them are already wrong
merge
sack them all. how do you even get one of thsoe jobs, they = less knowledgable than standard internet message board posters.
Hollinger's picks.
CONFERENCE FINALS
Eastern Conference
Cavs (59.4%) vs. Magic (40.6%): The computer retains a healthy respect for the Magic despite their late-season struggles, and we shouldn't gloss over these facts: Orlando had two lopsided wins over Cleveland this season and its lone defeat against the Cavs was by four points. Additionally, if the Magic make it this far, we have to presume that Turkoglu and Lewis will be at or near full strength, so those injuries aren't likely to be a factor.
Chances of winning the East based on computer projections
Team Odds of winning le Cleveland 50.0 Orlando 29.2 Boston 10.0 Atlanta 3.5 Miami 3.3 Chicago 1.6 Philadelphia 1.6 Detroit 0.8
The bigger problem for Orlando is my perception of each team's upside. The Cavs can play LeBron nearly every minute of every game in the playoffs if they have to, which allows them to punch far above their regular-season weight. Meanwhile, I'm wondering if the Magic aren't regular-season overachievers who can't push the elevator to another floor in the postseason.
Perhaps they prove me wrong here; certainly I like how they match up against Cleveland well enough to think they'll win twice. But I can't see them pushing things to a seventh game, much less winning it.
My prediction: Cavs in 6
Western Conference Finals
Lakers (72.2%) vs. Nuggets (27.8%): Having personally witnessed the Lakers' four-game demolition of Denver a year ago, and noting that L.A. beat Denver three times out of four in the regular season this year, I think we can emphatically say that this is a terrible matchup for the Nuggets. They have nobody who can guard Kobe Bryant -- last year they resorted to the likes of Kenyon Martin and even Eduardo Najera -- and the length of Gasol and Bynum gives their front line fits.
Chances of winning the West based on computer projections
Team Odds of winning le L.A. Lakers 35.3 Portland 22.7 Denver 12.8 Houston 9.0 San Antonio 8.8 Dallas 5.8 Utah 3.1 New Orleans 2.5
In fact, the real conference finals matchup is going to be the second round, where either Portland or Houston has a much better shot at beating L.A. than the winner of the mystery bracket. And Denver's chances don't improve much if L.A. is out of the way. Even with home-court advantage, the Nuggets lose 57.0 percent of the pairings to Houston and 65.8 percent to Portland; the numbers for San Antonio (60.2 percent and 68.1 percent, respectively) are nearly identical.
In either of those matchups I'd expect the series to go at least six games. The same can't be said of Lakers-Nuggets: The al ude should get Denver one game, but that's as far as I'm willing to go.
My prediction: Lakers in 5
NBA FINALS
Cleveland (54.4%) vs. Los Angeles (45.6%): Call it David Stern's dream matchup. Kobe versus LeBron, a battle of the past two MVP winners (presuming LeBron wins this year), and one that matches the biggest stars in L.A. and New York (just kidding, Cavs fans). Let's just say there are going to be some deflated-looking people at the TV networks if we get Portland-Orlando instead.
Most common Finals matchups and results
Pairing % of sims % won by East team Cleveland-L.A. 18.1 54.5 Cleveland-Portland 1.5 55.6 Orlando-L.A. 10.0 41.8 Orlando-Portland 6.5 50.5 Cleveland-Denver 6.4 70.4 Cleveland-San Antonio 4.2 79.0 Cleveland-Houston 4.1 66.8 Orlando-Denver 3.9 68.4 Boston-L.A. 3.3 31.3
The Lakers won both regular-season meetings, a positive indicator in their favor, but the Cavs will get the last two games on their home court, where they were 39-1 in games they tried to win. Yes, the Lakers were responsible for the "1", but that doesn't mean they're going to romp through the Q this time around.
Again, the Cavs' ability to play LeBron the whole game makes them a much more imposing team in the playoffs than they are in the regular season, as Boston found out a year ago, when a Cleveland team that gave up more points than it scored in the regular season took the mighty Celtics to the wire in a seventh game before suc bing.
This year, it's time to crown King James. I expect the Lakers to make this not just a compe ive series, but a downright classic one. But in the end, the combination of the crowd at the Q and the best player in the world will be too much for the Lakers.
My prediction: Cavs in 7
John Hollinger writes for ESPN Insider. To e-mail him, click here.
All of this so called ''experts'' are stupid.
lol @ hollinger, ford, sheridan
The same fools who predicted the Lakers in 5 against the Rockets W/YAO
At least none of them predicted a Cavs sweep like some posters on this board
The amazing thing is how so many analysts and basketball minds could overlook the Orlando put Cleveland through in the regular season....like all 3 games were some sort of anomally. They barely lost the 1 game they played at the "Q" to Cleveland.
guaran ing teed!
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