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Based on regression to the mean probabilities in the 2008 draft, he never will.
Kobe is bulletproof. Playa needs to drama queen from time to time to pretend he's not indestructible. He'll easily top Kareem.
Based on regression to the mean probabilities in the 2008 draft, he never will.
Based on my opinion.
You can refer to Reggie Miller, but I don't think it's a good comparison. Throughout his career, 37% of his field goal attempts were three pointers. By comparison, only about 17% of Durant's field goal attempts have been three pointers. Durant actually takes it to the basket, gets out in the open court, takes hits way more than Reggie would. Reggie averaged 5 free throw attempts per game in his career, only twice averaging more than 7 free throw attempts per game in a season. Durant already averages 7 for his short career and averages 10 FTA this season. I think there's a stark difference.
Now if you can find a skinny 6'10 small forward who was a 25-30 PPG scorer for his entire career as the main option on a team who lasted well into his mid 30s, I'm all for making the comparison.
And if you really believe that Durant will be that type of player, be a 30 point scorer over the next 13-14 years and still be healthy enough to play about 80 games each of those 13-14 seasons, well then more power to him and to you. I don't see it happening. It's just an opinion, but I just don't.
You can refer to Reggie Miller, but I don't think it's a good comparison. Throughout his career, 37% of his field goal attempts were three pointers. By comparison, only about 17% of Durant's field goal attempts have been three pointers. Durant actually takes it to the basket, gets out in the open court, takes hits way more than Reggie would. Reggie averaged 5 free throw attempts per game in his career, only twice averaging more than 7 free throw attempts per game in a season. Durant already averages 7 for his short career and averages 10 FTA this season. I think there's a stark difference.
That is a good point but I doubt he will drive as much as he does now as he ages almost all perimeter (wing) players move their games out as they get older ...Lebron will as well ...
Yep he sure had the physique of Lebron
Well I was more arguing against the notion that Durant can play 17-18 full seasons scoring at that clip. While I do think his slight frame could lead to some injuries over the course of his career, I'm really more skeptical that he'll play long enough period. While some like to bring up Reggie Miller, he's really the only example you can bring up. How many slender perimeter players not only played 17-18 NBA seasons, and not only remained relatively healthy for those 17-18 NBA seasons, but also did both while also being the main option on a team averaging 25-30 PPG?
Perhaps Durant won't get any major injuries and be relatively healthy for his entire NBA career. Sure, I guess it's possible. When I first responded in this thread, I guess I should have clarified not only questioning his ability to stay healthy but his ability to score at this level for another 14 or so seasons. That admittedly is not necessarily the same argument.
IMO Durant's physiqe is irrelevant because he doesn't drive to the rim constantly like Lebron drawing contact in the process. Physiqe is an important factor only when you play like Lebron who puts his body on the line everytime he drives to the rim. Having played 2 seasons with barely any injury reinforces that physique is not significant.
Kome will break the 30k plateau but thats it. I think Bron has the best chance of them all. He's at 15k points already and I can see him easily scoring an additional 25k points for the next 11 yrs.
The difference though is Durant and Kobe have shown they can thrive in games where they get 2-4 ft's a game. Lebron has never shown that. And he shouldn't given what he is able to do now.
This, most of those guys depend on athleticism to achieve volume shots and eventually teams are not going to want them taking 25+ shots a game. Centers with skills last long because...
1. They're tall, don't have to jump as much.
2. They have moves that don't take athleticism, hook/bank shots.
3. They don't need to sprint on breaks, less wear.
Duncan has bank/hook shots. (Duncan is a Center!!!)
Kareem had the ultimate hook.
However one X factor is these 3 guys may get more special treatment from refs than say Kareem which may pad their scoring.
i don't think that record will be broken in my lifetime to be honest.. and i'm 25 years old.. lebron however.. would come the closest to it i believe..
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