Earl

[Cry Havoc]

934. Intensity continuing to fluctuate, but he's definitely not weakening significantly.

[Cry Havoc]

12z ECMWF has two direct hits, in eastern NC and near Cape Cod. That is actually similar to its 00z run.

This model has been among the best indicator of storm paths in recent tracking, and is now showing a direct or near direct hit on North Carolina.

Not sure how many we have on ST, but anyone on the NE coast, especially those along or near coastlines, should now begin monitoring and prepping for possible evacuations and/or loss of power over an extended period of time. There is a strong chance that some of the Eastern seaboard will feel at least tropical storm force winds with Earl, as models are continuing to trend westward as the trough in the center of the country continues to move too slowly to push Earl out to sea.

[Cry Havoc]

Earl from the ISS.

[MannyIsGod]

Awesome picture in the true sense of the word.

[JoeChalupa]

[MannyIsGod]

Earl looks ragged but still has a pressure of 940 mb so he's not really that weak.

[Cry Havoc]

Even better picture here, IMO. This is my current laptop background:



I think Earl is definitely strengthening right now. Cloud tops are cooler, and he's redeveloped outflow to his Western quadrant.

[benefactor]

I don't really see it strengthening much, if any. The shear(10-20 knots) that is being produced by the upper level southwest winds from a trough west of Earl is predicted to continue through Friday. Earl is strong enough and is over warm enough waters to possibly maintain its current intensity, but it's not going to get stronger in those conditions. If anything the shear could push some of the very dry air that is to the northwest into the storm and weaken it some before it brushes the EC.

[IronMexican]

Goku could do what this thing is doing by just going Kaioken.

[MannyIsGod]

I don't really see it strengthening much, if any. The shear(10-20 knots) that is being produced by the upper level southwest winds from a trough west of Earl is predicted to continue through Friday. Earl is strong enough and is over warm enough waters to possibly maintain its current intensity, but it's not going to get stronger in those conditions. If anything the shear could push some of the very dry air that is to the northwest into the storm and weaken it some before it brushes the EC.

Yeah I don't see much strengthening either. That low to its west is actually enhancing its outflow though. Its really the dry air to the north that is affecting it poorly.

[MannyIsGod]

Actually, looking at the latest water vapor Earl is looking much better. The low to its west has done wonders for the outflow to the north and I think it might have managed to fight off the dry air. We'll see what it does with the dry air to the West and SW now.

I didn't think it was going to get stronger but the WV situation looks really really good now.

[benefactor]

The eye is peeking back through on the latest satellite images. Looks like the EWRC is just about done.

[Sisk]

Great pictures Cry Havoc

[gospursgojas]

When manny posts to watch a storm...I listen.

Dude totally called Katrina before anyone thought it was gonna be what it became

[Cry Havoc]

When manny posts to watch a storm...I listen.

Dude totally called Katrina before anyone thought it was gonna be what it became

I wasn't on ST then, but I had a bad feeling about Katrina as soon as she headed for the gulf.

[benefactor]

Earl is back to a Cat. 3 now.

Couple this with 5 out of 6 models(GFS,UKMET,NGFDL,NOGAPS,GFDL,HWRF) predicting that Earl will not make a direct hit on SC and things are looking much better than they did when Earl exploded into a Cat. 4 in a matter of hours.

Earl should still be pretty problematic though. Anyone living within 50ish miles of the coast should probably consider heading further inland. Earl still has hurricane force winds that extend 90 miles out from the center and tropical strom force winds that extend 200 miles out. At the very least much of the EC could see 12 - 15 hours worth of TS force winds and lot of flooding from the rain.

[MannyIsGod]

I wouldn't take much solace in the classification as a cat 3. Its all of a 5 knot drop in wind speed.

[Cry Havoc]

Earl looks to be on his way back to Cat 4 status, his Dvorak classification is rising right now.

He is heading due NW. Forecast models are carrying him out to sea missing the coast, but I don't necessarily think they're correct, just yet. I could still easily see a landfall or a very close brush for NC in store.

[MannyIsGod]

What I hate about people and forecast models is how they focus on the line. This is the reason why the NHC removed the center line from their cones in the recent past. The storm isn't a small feature - its pretty large to either side of that line. Also, those forecasts and models have margins of error. As we get down to within a few days it drops to about 200 miles but when the model is predicting the storm to be within 50 miles of the coast then you can see why that is pretty much forecasting a hit.

Up until this storm actually passes the Eastern seaboard people should just pay attention. The models have been in the same swath of ocean for days now but they've moved back and forth a couple of hundred miles as they usually do.

[Cry Havoc]

First warnings out:

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED
STATES FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

[BlackSwordsMan]

those pictures are so beautiful

[BlackSwordsMan]

I hope opie is ok =[

[Cry Havoc]

Earl now has a Central Dense Overcast, and looks to be redeveloping his outflow to the south. He's accelerating as he puts the dry air behind him and reaches the prevailing westerlies.

Models are now shifted back West of where they were this morning/last evening, when it looked like a clear miss. NC is definitely still in the scope of Earl's cannon, if they aren't in the crosshairs.

[Cry Havoc]

One model's run for Friday. Earl is right off the coast of NC, with a central pressure at that point of 979.

[Cry Havoc]

The GFS is now putting Earl over Cape Hatteras, NC, then moving right off the coast of Long Island!

This would be an absolute worst case scenario for the East Coast. Damage would likely run well into the billions and would give Earl a real chance to be a top 5 hurricane as far as damage goes.