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That makes sense, but I still don't see it playing that way. I see more mines started anyway, and this as a probable loss for JPM. Part of me hopes I'm wrong.
Yes, I agree, but not when you cause an artificial rice in price by buying a substantial share of a reserve.
That makes sense, but I still don't see it playing that way. I see more mines started anyway, and this as a probable loss for JPM. Part of me hopes I'm wrong.
It's not very academic, and mighty little debate happens. Posters mostly talk past one another.
( the pic echoes "bandwagon")
It's still a small chunk of the copper reserves.
Electric motors, generators, electrical transmission, contacts on SD chips, solar panels, wires, cables, etc...nothing is going to replace copper anytime soon...
True, but copper isn't so rare that more mines wont be built to cover demand as the price slightly increases. I just don't see it being a win for them. Yes, I could be wrong. Time will tell.
It's a hit and run. Make 10% in a month and it's a 120% annualized return.
It could still backfire if they hold most of it and the price drops.
Who lost when the housing market bubble burst? JP Morgan?
I thought the political class made clear enough that JPMorgan is too big to fail...
I'm pretty confident they did their homework on risk/reward. JPMorgan/Chase are also thinking globally and this may give them somewhat of an advantage in competing with BOA in China.
JP Morgan was eaten by Goldman with the collusion of the fed in a blind short squeeze. Then the Fed arranged the shotgun wedding between the corpse of JP Morgan and Chase.
And us taxpayers paid for the honeymoon...
You are. Don't lose hope on that.
More mines will be started, but remember this is a finite resource and current mines deplete and need to be replaced. Remember to increase amount of new supplies requires that you find new sources faster than you use old ones up.
China and India are sucking up vast quan ies of stuff, and that demand grows exponentially each year. 1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1=2.59.... Ten years of 10% growth adds up. At that rate, all things held equal, you double underlying demand every 7 years.
Although we are starting to see the glimmers of inflation in China, and that will act to crimp things somewhat.
I don't expect to see the torrid growth of China's economy continue indefinitely. They are getting too old too fast and, as we have noted, are going to be really sick from the nasty pollution. I give it another 10 years of solid growth, then they will start to slow down at an accelerating pace.
ewww, leave your first date out of this. TMI.
I only wish you would use your same logic into considering who needs to curtail their soot emissions. China's use of fossil fuels has been increasing something like 18% annual. Put that into your compound percentage formulation.You are. Don't lose hope on that.
More mines will be started, but remember this is a finite resource and current mines deplete and need to be replaced. Remember to increase amount of new supplies requires that you find new sources faster than you use old ones up.
China and India are sucking up vast quan ies of stuff, and that demand grows exponentially each year. 1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1*1.1=2.59.... Ten years of 10% growth adds up. At that rate, all things held equal, you double underlying demand every 7 years.
Although we are starting to see the glimmers of inflation in China, and that will act to crimp things somewhat.
I don't expect to see the torrid growth of China's economy continue indefinitely. They are getting too old too fast and, as we have noted, are going to be really sick from the nasty pollution. I give it another 10 years of solid growth, then they will start to slow down at an accelerating pace.
I get what you're saying. I don't just believe copper is as rare as claimed. i think this whole this is being hyped.
You are a believer in peak oil. How about peak copper?
That's still a long way off, so I don't see a strain making the price rise much, happening.Demand for copper, the only other metal Graedel has studied, shows no sign of levelling off, and based on 2006 figures for per capita consumption he calculates that by 2100 global demand for copper will outstrip the amount extractable from the ground.
World's 5th largest gold, copper reserves found in Pakistan
Copper isn't all *that* rare, you are entirely correct.
Fossil fuel usage in China is accelerating as they change their lifestyles, i.e. electricity and cars, faster than their economy grows.
China desperately needs to curtail their soot emissions, their economy depends on it, if nothing other than the smog and health risks, not to mention acid rain and the like.
Chinese coal miner.
As has been explained to you previously, long before the point where projected demand exceeds supply, you get disproportionate price increases.
The price is the intersection between supply and demand CURVES. You seem to be trapped in thinking of things in straight lines. It is possible to not have the price point move much in the shallow end of a curve, then move up markedly with much smaller demand increases towards the top, depending on the shape of the curve.
LOL...As has been explained to you previously, long before the point where projected demand exceeds supply, you get disproportionate price increases.
The price is the intersection between supply and demand CURVES. You seem to be trapped in thinking of things in straight lines. It is possible to not have the price point move much in the shallow end of a curve, then move up markedly with much smaller demand increases towards the top, depending on the shape of the curve.
We are still talking small changes, and trust me. Investors will look for more resources knowing the demand is increasing. Now that we have a known two year tax system, investors will start investing again. there will be lots of capital available now for new ventures since capital gains taxes are remaining log, and not in fear of increasing for another 2 years.
I have to laugh, because you will use known mathematical models when it suits your needs, but disregard the same effect they don't. Do you realize you are a hypocrite in these manners? Do you realize how the cap and trade fits your supply and demand pricing, and not being a small change, it will be very costly? Do you realize the same known theory proves out as the Laffer curve, in economics?
Thanks for the laugh.
They could easily be buying into a market already run up, and ready to burst. They did real well predicting housing...
This one is real promising:
Nothing spectacular here:
I read some things that in essence say that copper has not increased in production capacity because it doesn't respond to short term changes. There is still plenty of production capacity, and the profit is in smelting. Not mining. Increases in production capacity only follow foreseen need, which we have with Asia growing as it is. I still see this as a very risky investment. Too much money to allocate into one basket.
According to rampant rumors, Morgan has a huge (possibly multi-trillion dollar) short position in silver. Not sure if that relates, but I thought I'd throw it in there.
http://www.nypost.com/p/news/busines...#ixzz1815fLr5J"JPMorgan acts as an agent for the Federal Reserve; they act to halt the rise of gold and silver against the US dollar. JPMorgan is insulated from potential losses [on their short positions] by the Fed and/or the US taxpayer," Maguire said.
In the gold pits, Maguire sees HSBC betting against the precious metal's price without having any skin in the game in the form of a naked short.
"HSBC conducts an ongoing manipulative concentrated naked short position in gold. Silver is much easier to manipulate due to its much smaller [market] size," Maguire added.
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...#ixzz1816Fs8nMBy selling massive amounts of paper silver in the futures market, JPM has been able to suppress the price of the precious metal. It is believed that these short positions are naked (i.e. they are not backed by any physical silver). In fact, reports indicate that JPM is short more paper silver than physically exists in the world.
An article by Max Keiser which appeared in the Guardian on December 2, 2010 claims that the size of the short position is 3.3 billion ounces of silver.
In recent days, rumors have been swirling on the internet that JPM's massive short position is about to blow up in their face in the form of an almighty short squeeze and potential COMEX default as large traders demand physical delivery of silver that COMEX does not have in their vaults.
J.P. Morgan is currently under investigation by the CFTC for allegedly manipulating the price of silver. The investigation into the bank can be traced back to November 2009 when London metals trader and whistleblower Andrew Maguire contacted the CFTC to report market manipulation prior to it actually occurring.
Maguire had been told by J.P. Morgan commodity traders that the bank was manipulating the price of silver and subsequently reported this to the CFTC. He also gave the CFTC two days' notice about an impending silver manipulation that would take place around the Nonfarm payrolls number on February 5, 2010.
The manipulation played out EXACTLY as Maguire had predicted. You can find the emails between Maguire and Ramirez here. Shortly after this information came to light, the whistleblower was involved in a bizarre hit and run accident in London which caused him and his wife to be hospitalized.
The price of silver has absolutely exploded in recent months as these reports have surfaced and it is clear that blood is in the water. The predator (J.P. Morgan) has now become the prey. Every tick higher in the price of silver brings more pressure on the bank to cover their short position. This in turn puts more upward pressure on the silver price.
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