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You win.like me arguing with you on how to be a moron:
There is absolutely zero proof that la Nina is causing the drought..
The tool is the person claiming "polar winds" are shifting due to climate change with no studies to back it up. You arguing with me on climate and weather is like me arguing with you on how to be a moron: I don't try to act like I know more about your specialty.
If you have academic studies showing that the west Texas drought has anything to do with "polar wind shifts" by all means post them.
You win.like me arguing with you on how to be a moron:
There is absolutely zero proof that la Nina is causing the drought..
Yeah, none.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf/?n=research_laninaResults
Evaluation of the data sets used in this study does indeed show an overall decrease in precipitation for La Niña years. Figures 1-3 display a comparison of the seasonal averages with the seasonal precipitation totals for each of the moderate to strong La niña events. Table 2 displays the precipitation totals and percentages of normal for moderate to strong La Niña events while Table 3 shows identical information for weak La Niña events. When combining both the weak (Table 3) and moderate to strong (Table 2) La Niña events it was found that 23 out of the 33 seasons (70%) had below normal precipitation. On average, precipitation received during any one of the three seasons was 69-80% of normal when normals computed with all the years inclusive of this study were used. Interestingly enough, during the spring season (MAM) of both weak and moderate to strong La Niña events, 9 out of the 11 spring seasons (82%) had below normal precipitation. With an average of just below 70% of normal precipitation, the spring season showed the greatest decrease in precipitation out of all three seasons studied.
A comparison of the seasons used in this study shows that winter (DJF) holds the greatest variability in rainfall received. This would not be totally unexpected since the average precipitation was the least for the winter and the distribution of the observations would be further from a normal distribution that the other two seasons involved in this study. Winter percent of normals ranged from a high of 315% in 1938 to a low of 5% in 1970. Besides the high of 315% in 1938, precipitation received in any one of the seasons during all the La Niña years was greater than 141% of normal only one other time.
The results of this study demonstrate that La Niña has distinct effects on Midland, Texas precipitation. Overall, the moderate to strong La Niña events (Tables 2) showed a greater likelihood to be below normal (75% of normal) for all three seasons when compared to the weak La Niña events (87% of normal).
Conclusions
Analyses of past La Niña studies and past precipitation records for Texas and the southern plains show there has been a negative effect (decrease) on precipitation totals during most La Niña years. From this study, the most decisive finding is that the precipitation totals in any given season for a La Niña year are likely to be below normal. The autumn and spring seasons are more likely than the winter season to have below normal precipitation with the spring season being the most likely. However, in rare cases, precipitation totals may exceed 315% of normal during a La Niña episode.
http://wap.weather.com/outlook/weath...ral_2011-04-20The worst drought in 45 years has turned the state of Texas into a tinderbox, the scene of more than 5,300 wildfires so far this year.
The drought is being aided by moderate to strong La Nina conditions this winter, according to a report on climatecentral.org. More than 1 million acres have burned, with few signs of rain to bring relief.
Nope, none.
Wish I could find some proof.La Niña conditions, which are characterized by cooler than average conditions in the eastern equatorial tropical Pacific Ocean, are associated with drier than average conditions in the southern tier of the U.S., including Texas. While this does not hold true during every La Niña year, it has played out this year, as storms bypassed the southern tier of the country.
“The moderate to strong La Niña event of 2010/2011 is certainly one of the primary factors in the dryness across Texas. Normal day to day weather swings and serendipity play a lesser role, but current studies tell us that on average Texas is more apt to receive below normal precipitation during La Niña winters,” Murphy says.
The drought followed a very wet summer and early fall, rounding out a boom and bust cycle of precipitation in the Lone Star State, which has provided plenty of dry vegetation to fuel wildfires. From October 1, 2010 to March 31, 2011, Texas received just 5.07 inches of rainfall as a statewide average. This is 45 percent of the 100-year statewide average of 11.35 inches. March was Texas’ driest such month since records began in 1895.
http://www.climatecentral.org/blogs/...-scorch-texas/
Maybe SOMEONE in the meteorological community believes La Nina is a huge factor in this. MAYBE.A quick look at some climate statistics for Midland, TX reveals that the forecast of warmer and drier conditions than normal for West Texas this past winter of 1998-1999 verified quite well. Specifically, meteorological winter (the months of December, January, and February) had high temperatures above normal nearly 70% of the time while the drought from last year continued into the new year with only 58% of the average precipitation occurring in these winter months.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/maf/?n=research_ensoreview
Although exact conclusions are always tricky, as is the case with large-scale weather patterns and long range forecasts, there are some trends that can be noted across the South Plains that are correlated with La Niña. In general, La Niña episodes favor below normal precipitation and above normal temperatures for the region. Below are some observations made from previous La Niña episodes as compiled by Lubbock Warning Coordination Meteorologist (WCM) Jody James. The information is broken down by the strength of the La Niña episode as defined in the table below. The Oceanic Niño Index (ONI) is defined as the 3-month running mean of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the Niño 3.4 region (5oN-5oS, 120o-170oW).http://www.srh.noaa.gov/lub/?n=news-20101015-laninaFrom the above tables we can see that:
La Niña events favor a decrease in total precipitation at Lubbock, with strong to extreme episodes having a stronger signal.
There is a strong signal for a significant decrease in snowfall during La Niña episodes.
What does this all mean?
According to the current computer model forecasts it appears the ongoing La Niña episode will persist through this upcoming winter. Thus, there will be a greater than average chance that the South Plains region is drier and less snowy than normal this winter. The official long range forecast for the United States reflects this, and can be found at the Climate Prediction Center by CLICKING HERE.
The development of La Niña is also well correlated with warmer than normal conditions across the southern United States during the winter. The current long range forecast from the Climate Prediction Center for the South Plains calls for a high likelihood (50 percent or greater) of winter temperatures being above average.
manny.......breathe....
Its not like anyone in NWS or NOAA saw this coming.
November's drought forcast.
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/product...011_text.shtmlSoil moisture that was plentiful across much of the southern Great Plains following the early September passage of Tropical Storm Hermine has dwindled as much drier weather has occurred the past 45 days. An exception to this has been extreme southern Texas where ample mid- to late September rains have maintained wetness. With the exception of heavy rains during the next 5-days (from HPC) in northern Texas and Oklahoma, all forecasts from the short to medium range through the seasonal outlook indicate enhanced chances of below-median precipitation and above-normal temperatures. And with the likelihood of little or no "bonus" tropical cyclone rains (such as from Hermine) in the western Gulf Coast due to decreased tropical cyclone formation and southward-displaced mid-la ude troughs that tend to recurve any tropical cyclones eastward away from the region, drought persistence is maintained in Oklahoma and northern and southwestern Texas. In addition, development was extended across most of south-central Texas, northern Texas and Oklahoma, and parts of eastern New Mexico where La Niña conditions are strongly associated with decreased precipitation and increased temperatures.
Forecast confidence for the southern Plains is moderate to high.
Ok I'm done. I'm sure NBA head will come back and remind us that he's a great mathematician who makes great future forecasts with some mysterious models.
2+0+1+2
Lol @ nbadan getting his ass handed to him again.
Manny's meteorlogical brainpan ftw.
5????
Oh are you referring to the prophecy that the end of days is in May??
Perry, obviously a deeply religious, good-faith, honest, empathetic man (all politicians are) pandering to the TX Bible-thumping bubbas and sheeple.
I never believed the rumors, Manny is a over-educated ass-hat...Why is Manny showing maps from 2010? ...because El Nina has been easing for the last three months..the rains in west TX...not so much
...I also never said that El Nina does not a effect on the drought in West TX, what I said is that we may also be seeing the effects of global climate change at work here....even many of Manny's weather geek friends have no idea what causes a La Nina or even how to predict a La Nina year.....evidence the lack of long-term predictions of for a La Nina forecast this spring and summer....
....like always, Manny blew his load to early....probably why he has no GF and spends so much of his time defending pseudo-science like weather prediction..
Last edited by Nbadan; 04-23-2011 at 01:28 PM.
Lol @ nbadan getting his ass handed to him again.
Manny's meteorlogical brainpan ftw.
at TB sucking Manny's ...
Really, dan?
what?
Weather prediction is a pseudo-science...the rest is true..
this thread delivers the lulz
...get a rope...
TBH knowing when you lost is a good way to earn props around here. It would be a useful skill for NBADan to master.
Yes, (oh and LOL @ El Nina) La Nina has been easing and will likely transition into a neutral phase in the coming months and perhaps even back into an El Nino phase later this year.
That doesn't change the fact that La Nina is the primary climatological reason for the drought.
Just admit you're wrong, Dan. Jeez.
I really should work on getting a gf. Maybe I can start looking for one on Spurstalk.
This girl looks pretty cool!
http://www.spurstalk.com/forums/member.php?u=459
Furthermore, ENSO predictions are quite good. NBADan arguing that we don't know what causes it or how it forms is pretty laughable.
Dude's gonna end up in China by tomorrow at the rate he's digging.
What? So TBH is never wrong?TBH knowing when you lost is a good way to earn props around here. It would be a useful skill for NBADan to master.
Only time will tell....but West TX does not avg much yearly rainfall in a normal year....That doesn't change the fact that La Nina is the primary climatological reason for the drought.
...my feeling is we are witnessing both the effects of La Nina around the equator and shifting polar wind in the northern hemisphere because of melting polar cap...
Why haven't you married that?
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