Storm Chasing

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Ft Worth NWS just updated their forecast:

[symple19]

yeah today definitely looks like it will be another major tornado outbreak. This is the 4th time they've issued a high risk warning this year. Here are the other three times

Apr. 16: "Carolina Outbreak" (69 tornadoes...32 in NC...13 in VA...26 killed)
Apr. 26: "Mid-South Outbreak" (56 tornadoes....1 killed in AR)
Apr. 27: "Southeast Outbreak" (232 tornadoes...315 killed)

and records keep getting broken

On Sunday, May 22, a devastating tornado hit the city of Joplin, Mo., leaving an estimated 116 people dead and several hundred others injured. This tied the June 8, 1953, tornado that hit Flint, Mich., as the deadliest single tornado to strike the U.S. since modern tornado recordkeeping began in 1950.

The deadliest tornado on record was on March 18, 1925. This “Tri-State Tornado” (MO, IL, IN) had a 291-mile path, was rated F5 based on a historic assessment, and caused 695 fatalities.

Preliminary rating: Powerful EF-4 tornado with winds from 190-198 mph. Tornado was ¾ of a mile wide. A final determination on strength will be available Tuesday, May 24, after our Springfield Weather Forecast Office completes the storm survey.
National Weather Service's (NWS) preliminary estimate is more than 100 tornadoes have occurred during the month of May 2011.

The record number of tornadoes during the month of May was 542 tornadoes set in May 2003.

Deadliest Tornado Years in US History
(Official NOAA-NWS Record: 1950 - present; Research by Grazulis: 1875-1949)

Year Fatalities
1925 794
1936 552
1917 551
1927 540
1896 537
1953 519
1920 499
1908 477
2011 481(365 + 116 estimated Joplin fatalities as of
May 23)
1909 404
1932 394
1942 384
1924 376
1974 366
1933 362

The average number of tornadoes for the month of May during the past decade is 298.

May is historically the most active month for tornadoes.
2011 Year-to-Date (and record annual) Statistics

NWS’s preliminary estimate is that there have been approximately 1,000 tornadoes so far this year.

The previous yearly record number of tornadoes was set in 2004 with 1,817.

The overall yearly average number of tornadoes for the past decade is 1,274.

The preliminary estimated number of tornado fatalities so far this year is 481. NWS records indicate that there were 365 tornado fatalities before the Joplin tornado. Media reports currently indicate 89 fatalities in the Joplin event.

The US tornado death toll is the highest ever through the month of May in the NOAA-NWS official record (1950-present).

The highest recorded annual death toll from tornadoes in the NOAA-NWS official record (1950-present) was set in 1953 with 519 fatalities.
April 2011

April 2011 set a new record for the month with 875 tornadoes.

The previous record was set in April 1974 with 267 tornadoes.

The average number of tornadoes for the month of April during the past decade is 161.

The previous record number of tornadoes during any month was 542 tornadoes set in May 2003.

NWS records indicate 321 people were killed during the April 25-28 tornado outbreak.

NWS records indicate 361 people were killed during the entire month of April 2011.

April 25-28 Preliminary Tornado Tracks Map (Based on NWS Storm Survey Findings)

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/2011_to...formation.html

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Today upgraded to Particularly Dangerous Situation for North Texas / Oklahoma / south Kansas...

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0356.html

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 356
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
NORTHWEST AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 3 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
PONCA CITY OKLAHOMA TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF FORT WORTH
TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 352...WW 354...WW 355...

DISCUSSION...TSTM INITIATION IS ANTICIPATED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM WRN OK INTO W-CNTRL TX. STRONG HEIGHT
FALLS/DYNAMIC FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH NEGATIVELY TILTED
MIDLEVEL TROUGH EMERGING INTO THE PLAINS SHOULD SUPPORT A RAPID
INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WARM SECTOR AIR
MASS IS CHARACTERIZED BY A VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S. WHEN COUPLED WITH STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES...ENVIRONMENT IS MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-4000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STRENGTHENING TO
40-50 KT WILL PROMOTE RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH THE INITIAL
HAZARD BEING VERY LARGE HAIL. INITIAL VEER-BACK WIND PROFILE
OBSERVED IN CURRENT VADS/PROFILERS IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO
LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED HODOGRAPHS BY 00Z WHERE 0-1 KM SRH WILL
APPROACH 400-500 M2/S2. AS SUCH...EXPECT A RAPID INCREASE IN THE
THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING...SOME OF WHICH
COULD BE LONG-TRACKED AND STRONG TO VIOLENT.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW ULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23035.

[benefactor]

Those numbers are staggering.

[MannyIsGod]

Yeah, my buddy and I like our cars. We prefer to hang to the south of storms and come in on the back end of them to stay out of the hail cores. Probably means we miss some action, or end up falling behind trying to chase storms that are hauling ass at like 50-60 miles an hour, but it beats a new windsheld / totalled car...

Latest from the SPC:

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day1otlk.html

Yeah - if you position from the SE you get them moving somewhat to you (they usually move NE) and you don't have to fully chase them. But yeah, the hail in these storms will fuuuuuuuuuck up.

[MannyIsGod]

yeah today definitely looks like it will be another major tornado outbreak. This is the 4th time they've issued a high risk warning this year. Here are the other three times

Apr. 16: "Carolina Outbreak" (69 tornadoes...32 in NC...13 in VA...26 killed)
Apr. 26: "Mid-South Outbreak" (56 tornadoes....1 killed in AR)
Apr. 27: "Southeast Outbreak" (232 tornadoes...315 killed)

High Risk days are rare. Usually only a couple a year. I know I mentioned it earlier in this thread, and here we have yet another one. They almost always equal outbreaks. Crazy day.

[MannyIsGod]

Happy hunting AHF. Stream if you can! At least take pictures and upload that .

[MannyIsGod]

The cap is still holding strong. Not a single cell on radar.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

You can see the dry line on the IR (darker green vs. ligher green):



Storms starting to fire in SW Oklahoma.

[MannyIsGod]

Cap starting to go west of OKC. Looks like some nice supercells forming.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

And so it begins.



Cell in SW Kansas just tornado warned.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

LOL

http://chase.tornadovideos.net/pages/full_screen

[Axe Murderer]

[MannyIsGod]

WTF AHF. You'd better be posting from your cell phone in a passenger seat.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Cap is gone. Things are going to start booming now.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY INTO
CNTRL TX THIS AFTERNOON. AS CELLS INITIATE...SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT
WILL LIKELY OCCUR WITH A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND TORNADOES. A
TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY OVER THE NEXT HOUR ACROSS THE
REGION.

A DRYLINE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX AND IS STARTING TO
ADVANCE MORE QUICKLY EWD. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS ULUS
JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM NEAR WICHITA FALLS SWD TO NEAR SAN
ANGELO. THE CAPPING INVERSION IS NOW GONE ACROSS THE MCD AREA AND
STORM INITIATION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY AS CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE DRYLINE. MESOANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG INSTABILITY
IN PLACE WITH MLCAPE VALUES FROM 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. IN
ADDITION...PROFILER DATA SUGGEST 0-6 KM SHEAR VALUES ARE AROUND 40
KT. THE SHEAR SHOULD RAPIDLY INCREASE AS A 65 TO 80 KT MID-LEVEL JET
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST MAKING CONDITIONS VERY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD HAVE A THREAT
FOR VERY LARGE HAIL OF GREATER THAN 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER. IN
ADDITION...STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR LATE THIS AFTERNOON SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN A TORNADO THREAT WITH AN ISOLATED STRONG TORNADO
THREAT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

[MannyIsGod]

I really don't like the streams without audio. I wonder where the TVN crew is positioned today.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

WTF AHF. You'd better be posting from your cell phone in a passenger seat.

Waiting for my buddy (a coworker) to get out of his last meeting of the day. We are leaving at 3:30.

[MannyIsGod]

I was watching cut to the chase but his cell is pretty much dead now. There are 2 cells to the south which look better now.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

I really don't like the streams without audio. I wonder where the TVN crew is positioned today.

Someone on Spotternet said they are in Enid (north central Oklahoma).

But Reed loves to chase, I'm sure they're headed for either SW KS or those storms in west Oklahoma.

[Axe Murderer]

Is there a Tornado Warning for the SW Kansas cell?

It looks like it's starting to develop a strong hook

[MannyIsGod]

Someone on Spotternet said they are in Enid (north central Oklahoma).

But Reed loves to chase, I'm sure they're headed for either SW KS or those storms in west Oklahoma.

Would be stupid to leave central OK right now. Just gotta be patient but now that things are starting to fire best place to be is central OK.

[MannyIsGod]

these guys are such ing nerds man. The stream I'm watching just started blaring prodigy.

[MannyIsGod]

No warnings in OK yet but the cell that this chaser is on looks decent.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

First Texas storm firing up north of Abilene.

T-30 minutes until I'm on the road!

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Is there a Tornado Warning for the SW Kansas cell?

It looks like it's starting to develop a strong hook

Yep -

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
208 PM CDT TUE MAY 24 2011

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DODGE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN HASKELL COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHWESTERN SEWARD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...
NORTHEASTERN STEVENS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS...

* UNTIL 245 PM CDT

* AT 206 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
VERY STRONG ROTATION ASSOCIATED WITH A POSSIBLE TORNADO 4 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF MOSCOW. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS MOVING NORTHEAST AT
25 MPH. LARGE DESTRUCTIVE HAIL UP TO TENNIS BALL SIZE IS ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MOSCOW AND CAVE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
STURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OR
OUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECT
YOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS.