I believe both the Spurs and the Lakers would be worse off. However, there is one glaring flaw in this debate which seems to prove this. You don't just replace them with each other and assume what would happen. The only way to do this is if a trade had been made, straight up, Tim for Kobe.
Now, what does this trade mean for these franchises?
For the Spurs, they suddenly lose a lot of size and defensive intensity. True, they have a quick scorer in Kobe, but they can already get that from Parker and Ginobili. Most important is the hit team chemistry takes. (See Boston losing Kendrick Perkins last year for a reminder). No more Duncan is just that, no more Duncan. And his replacement plays a different position; this part seems to also prove how hard it is to determine who is the greater player. I would have been very hard for the Spurs to win as many games as they have since, let alone two les.
For the Lakers, this is also devastating. First Shaq goes, now Kobe? True Tim is a great replacement, but not for both! Kobe was able to score a lot of points simply because no one else could or should be trusted. Now, pressure is on Tim to fill that role, and that isn't his game. Odom isn't a legit second option, so this Lakers team is not going to score many points. This Lakers team will feel beaten when they come onto the court.
Hope you liked my points above.

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let me see if you can find the last player who averaged 24.7PPG/15.4reb/5.3ast/3.3blk or better in a le-winning playoffs.

