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  1. #126
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Russia isn't on the decline if they keep claiming the oil fields in the Arctic.
    Case in point about cost of remaining oil, and how it will be more expensive than what we have drilled so far.

    They put a nice little flag and a marker saying 'here is our stuff' on the bottom of their Arctic, or what they regard as "theirs".

    That little flag ain't gonna get the oil.

    You will need special, massive drilling rigs that can deal with the weather, ships to suck it off the platforms, and ports to unload the ships.

    None of that is present now, and will have to be built.

    Sure there is a lot of oil.

    But it won't come easily.

    That is the other problem for Russia. They treat their oil industry like a piggy bank, for the kleptocrats and give aways to pensioners.

    They have been under-investing in their oil infrastructure, and it is starting to cost them, as it is starting to cost Mexico, and Venezuala as well.

    BP went in and got its investment seized on some trumped up bull contract dispute. The Western oil majors are leery as about going back in.

    Sure there is a lot of oil out there and capacity to get it.

    But look at the places where that oil is, and you will see these nationalized oil firms, all in similar situations.

    Do you really think these creaky, state-owned piggy banks are going to be able to keep up with demand, as their technical capacity dwindles and their oil fields deplete?

  2. #127
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Cosmic Cowboy makes a good point. Giving the government more money to squander on green energy is foolish.
    The carbon tax is still the least most intrusive way to do it.

    You don't have to subsidize renewables, but I would be all for blanket R & D grants or something similar to any energy sector.

    Maybe we will get your magic oil shale technology out of it.

    I grew up in Wyoming, and heard all the claims about how much oil there is in the shale in the rockies. There was always some sucker who would invest in a "sure fire" technology promoted by some company.

    The oily rock is still there. The companies are gone, and the investors...

    Feel free to invest in oil shale. Please. You let me know how your ideology fares against the physics of oil shale.

    , use the tax to pay down the debt. I don't care, as long as we reduce our oil dependence, and get our economy further to where it is going anyway.

  3. #128
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    RG, I'm NOT saying we should just hang our hat on oil...and as you know from PM conversations I like to explore conservation and living off the grid.

    At the same time a carbon tax is a TERRIBLE solution. It ends up being a tax on manufacturing and production and makes US products and manufacturing even LESS compe ive globally...and on a personal level, it is a terribly regressive tax...The people who can least afford the cool energy saving technology end up taking it right up the ass because they have to consume more energy because they can only afford the outdated technology.

  4. #129
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    A carbon tax applied fairly would KILL plug in electric cars...Power plants are terribly inefficient as far as BTU in at the plant vs. BTU out at the plug. Electric rates would be off the charts.

  5. #130
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    RG, I'm NOT saying we should just hang our hat on oil...and as you know from PM conversations I like to explore conservation and living off the grid.

    At the same time a carbon tax is a TERRIBLE solution. It ends up being a tax on manufacturing and production and makes US products and manufacturing even LESS compe ive globally...and on a personal level, it is a terribly regressive tax...The people who can least afford the cool energy saving technology end up taking it right up the ass because they have to consume more energy because they can only afford the outdated technology.
    How is that going to be different when oil/coal gets more expensive?

    It is a cost, to be sure, but in the end you will get industries that use less of the kinds of energy that are certain to get more expensive anyways.

    You are citing the costs of the tax, but forgetting the alternative, letting the market raise the prices, does the same thing.

    When comparing alternatives, you really only should consider things that are different between the alternatives.

    The only thing that would change would be *when* oil/coal gets more expensive, and how much disruption that causes.

    One other difference is that letting the market do that in the future means that the extra costs go to the people we import oil from as a trade deficit.

    At least with a carbon tax, it hangs around.

  6. #131
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    A carbon tax applied fairly would KILL plug in electric cars...Power plants are terribly inefficient as far as BTU in at the plant vs. BTU out at the plug. Electric rates would be off the charts.
    Unless of course you built a distributed renewable power grid.

    Then plug in electrics would make a lot of sense.

    Add that to the fact that 25% of all electricity generated is lost in transmission, and those losses would be avoided.

    Any renewable distributed scheme would have a built-in 25% efficiency gain.

  7. #132
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    Unless of course you built a distributed renewable power grid.

    Then plug in electrics would make a lot of sense.

    Add that to the fact that 25% of all electricity generated is lost in transmission, and those losses would be avoided.

    Any renewable distributed scheme would have a built-in 25% efficiency gain.
    I'm all about a distributed grid, but that is totally counterintuitive to the current policies pushing renewable master grid energy. You know that and I know that. The solution can't come out of Washington.

  8. #133

  9. #134
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    Whistleblowers: Software Monitoring Keystone XL Pipeline's Safety Contains Deliberate Errors

    Whistleblowers have told Britain's "Dispatches" that the safety software on major US pipelines contains deliberate errors - and so pipelines can - and have - busted, leaked, exploded ... and killed.

    Congressional Republicans are holding extended unemployment benefits hostage until President Obama agrees to speed up approval to build the XL Keystone pipeline. XL Keystone will slice down through the entire width of the USA, moving tar-sands oil from Canada to Houston.

    The oil industry promises that the pipeline will be safe. But the pipe is only safe if the PIG inside it can squeal.

    Federal law requires the industry to run a diagnostic robot PIG, a pipeline Inspection Gauge, that will squeal when something is wrong: a crack, dangerous corrosion, anything that might lead to a spill or explosion.

    But PIGs are only as good as the software that tracks and analyzes their signals. And the software used by Big Oil has been compromised - deliberately.

    Insiders told this reporter that the software was designed to fool the safety inspectors.

    "The software feeds them incorrect information about the state of their pipeline."

    http://www.truth-out.org/whistleblow...iberate-errors

  10. #135
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    What?

    Obama is going to sign a bill that funds the tax cut by adding 10 basic points to Fannie/Freddie mortgage loans instead of taxing the 'rich" and agrees to tentatively approve the Keystone pipeline?



    *sound of cheap lawn chair folding*

  11. #136
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    As I said before, the links to wiki were for your benefit not mine.

    You seem to be missing a key concept when thinking about global oil supply and that is fungibility.

    If you and I each pour a bucket of water in a bathtub, after they are poured in, you can't tell which gallon of water is which, as they have intermingled.

    Global oil markets work the same way. Regardless of where it is produced, it is in the "global tub" and subject to global supply and demand. The only way to avoid this is to totally prohibit domestic production from being sold on the global market, AND to prohibit the importation of any oil.

    The concept applies to domestic production in this manner:

    We produce more oil. We have added to global supply. The producer of that oil can and will sell to the highest bidder, either here or export it, possibly a mixture of both, depending on the geographical position of that oil.

    Prices drop a little, given that we supply only about 10% of the global market.

    Say we triple our production instantly (physically impossible) and now produce 25% of the global total. (yes, that is the way it works out mathmatically). We now import NO oil, and export a little.

    We have made ourselves energy secure from supply disruptions from Iran, right?

    Nope. Not unless you completely wall off your economy and prohibit oil producers from exporting.

    Say in this new scenario, Iran snips a good chunk of global supply. People who were buying from the Iranians, are now buying from whoever will get them oil, US domestic producers included.

    Domestic producers then export to the highest bidder, reducing what they sell in the US until a new equilibrium price is reached. Prices in the US rise accordingly even though we don't import any oil at all.

    This is why producing more oil will not protect us from global supply disruptions. We would still pay more in this scenario.

    In fact, since we lowered the overall price of oil to begin with, more of our economic infrastructure gets built around this energy source. We depend on, demand, and consume more units.

    That means when the price goes up, we are consuming/demanding MORE units of oil, at the new higher prices.

    This is what OPEC talks about when they say high prices leads to "demand destruction" and why they don't like high prices. People make long term decisions, like living closer to work, driving smaller cars etc, when prices are high.

    Economically, if you want to be more secure from oil prices and supply/demand for oil, you simply use LESS rather than more.

    IF you view Iran as a security threat to our oil energy supply, the only rational response is to reduce your exposure to it.

    Sure a carbon tax is inefficient, but then so is a military, in terms of economics. It doesn't produce much other than security. It is part of the "G" term (government) used to define GDP.

    We think nothing of spending more than half a trillion on our military every year, but get all bent out of shape when it comes to a carbon tax that improves our security?

    This is why I say your ideological blinders keep you from reaching rational conclusions.

    "Drill here, drill now" does not make economic sense if your goal is to make us less vulnerable to a part of the world who has it in for us.

    Do the Iranian threats to our oil supply concern you?

  12. #137
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    http://www.investopedia.com/terms/f/fungibility.asp

    http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/fungible

    http://www.owen.org/blog/3224

    One of the better links:

    http://www.energybulletin.net/node/47019

    Wiki was just the most convenient.

    Read through the links, it is an important concept for many economic or energy issues.

  13. #138
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    As I said before, the links to wiki were for your benefit not mine.

    You seem to be missing a key concept when thinking about global oil supply and that is fungibility.

    If you and I each pour a bucket of water in a bathtub, after they are poured in, you can't tell which gallon of water is which, as they have intermingled.

    Global oil markets work the same way. Regardless of where it is produced, it is in the "global tub" and subject to global supply and demand. The only way to avoid this is to totally prohibit domestic production from being sold on the global market, AND to prohibit the importation of any oil.

    The concept applies to domestic production in this manner:

    We produce more oil. We have added to global supply. The producer of that oil can and will sell to the highest bidder, either here or export it, possibly a mixture of both, depending on the geographical position of that oil.

    Prices drop a little, given that we supply only about 10% of the global market.

    Say we triple our production instantly (physically impossible) and now produce 25% of the global total. (yes, that is the way it works out mathmatically). We now import NO oil, and export a little.

    We have made ourselves energy secure from supply disruptions from Iran, right?

    Nope. Not unless you completely wall off your economy and prohibit oil producers from exporting.

    Say in this new scenario, Iran snips a good chunk of global supply. People who were buying from the Iranians, are now buying from whoever will get them oil, US domestic producers included.

    Domestic producers then export to the highest bidder, reducing what they sell in the US until a new equilibrium price is reached. Prices in the US rise accordingly even though we don't import any oil at all.

    This is why producing more oil will not protect us from global supply disruptions. We would still pay more in this scenario.

    In fact, since we lowered the overall price of oil to begin with, more of our economic infrastructure gets built around this energy source. We depend on, demand, and consume more units.

    That means when the price goes up, we are consuming/demanding MORE units of oil, at the new higher prices.

    This is what OPEC talks about when they say high prices leads to "demand destruction" and why they don't like high prices. People make long term decisions, like living closer to work, driving smaller cars etc, when prices are high.

    Economically, if you want to be more secure from oil prices and supply/demand for oil, you simply use LESS rather than more.

    IF you view Iran as a security threat to our oil energy supply, the only rational response is to reduce your exposure to it.

    Sure a carbon tax is inefficient, but then so is a military, in terms of economics. It doesn't produce much other than security. It is part of the "G" term (government) used to define GDP.

    We think nothing of spending more than half a trillion on our military every year, but get all bent out of shape when it comes to a carbon tax that improves our security?

    This is why I say your ideological blinders keep you from reaching rational conclusions.

    "Drill here, drill now" does not make economic sense if your goal is to make us less vulnerable to a part of the world who has it in for us.

    Do the Iranian threats to our oil supply concern you?
    I'm amazed that such a simple concept takes so many words to make it understandable to the average person.

    Good job. I have a very hard time explaining the in between steps and reason. I always had a hard time showing my work in algebra, because the answer came so readily to me. I always felt like I was being dumbed down to make up the steps I didn't take.

  14. #139
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    Fact Check: Keystone XL Would Ship Foreign Oil To Foreign Lands


    The fact that Canada has excess pipeline capacity is well known. In a Department of Energy report evaluating Keystone XL’s impacts on U.S. energy supply over the next twenty years, the agency found that it will take decades for Canada to produce enough oil to fill existing pipelines. On page 90, the report concludes that the United States will import the same amount of crude from Canada through 2030 whether or not Keystone XL is built.

    From Canada’s perspective, the problem with existing pipelines is they all end in the U.S. Midwest and only allow one buyer – the United States. As Canada’s Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver recently said, “we export 97 percent of our energy to the U.S. and we would like to diversify that.” However, the Canadian government has put the brakes on the two pipeline proposals to export tar sands through its provinces due to the need to take more time to listen to its own public’s concerns about water and safety.

    Keystone XL would be Canada’s first step in diversifying its energy market. The pipeline would divert large volumes of Canadian oil from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast, where it would be available for the first time to buyers on the world market. To sweeten the deal, many of the refineries on the Gulf Coast happen to be located in foreign trade zones, where they can export Canadian oil to the world market without paying U.S. taxes. Oil Change International investigated this issue in a report that found the Keystone XL pipeline was part of a larger strategy to sell increasing volumes of Canadian crude on the international diesel market.

    In fact, TransCanada refused to support a requirement that oil on Keystone XL be used in the United States in a recent Congressional hearing. Earlier this month, Representative Edward Markey asked TransCanada’s President Alex Pourbaix to support a condition that would require the oil on Keystone XL to be used in the United States. Mr. Pourbaix refused, saying that a requirement to keep oil on Keystone XL in the United States would cause refineries to back out of their contracts. That very well may be the case as Valero, one of the largest prospective purchasers of Keystone XL’s crude, has already told its investors the its future business is in international export.

    Simply stated, Keystone XL is a way to get Canadian oil out of the United States, not into it.




    http://thinkprogress.org/green/2011/...foreign-lands/

  15. #140
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    thinkprogress rebarf ad nauseum...

  16. #141
    Alleged Michigander ChumpDumper's Avatar
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    thinkprogress rebarf ad nauseum...
    Is it factually untrue, CC?

    The thing of it is, the US refineries are already exporting gasoline out of the country while running well below capacity.

    What does the pipeline really do for the US?

  17. #142
    Veteran Wild Cobra's Avatar
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    What does the pipeline really do for the US?
    My take is that i don't have a solid position.

    A pipeline is probably the safest way to transport oil to refineries. However, I don't know that for certain.

  18. #143
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    "thinkprogress rebarf ad nauseum..."

    excellent rebuttal

  19. #144
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Fact Check: Keystone XL Would Ship Foreign Oil To Foreign Lands


    The fact that Canada has excess pipeline capacity is well known. In a Department of Energy report evaluating Keystone XL’s impacts on U.S. energy supply over the next twenty years, the agency found that it will take decades for Canada to produce enough oil to fill existing pipelines. On page 90, the report concludes that the United States will import the same amount of crude from Canada through 2030 whether or not Keystone XL is built.

    From Canada’s perspective, the problem with existing pipelines is they all end in the U.S. Midwest and only allow one buyer – the United States. As Canada’s Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver recently said, “we export 97 percent of our energy to the U.S. and we would like to diversify that.” However, the Canadian government has put the brakes on the two pipeline proposals to export tar sands through its provinces due to the need to take more time to listen to its own public’s concerns about water and safety.

    Keystone XL would be Canada’s first step in diversifying its energy market. The pipeline would divert large volumes of Canadian oil from the Midwest to the Gulf Coast, where it would be available for the first time to buyers on the world market. To sweeten the deal, many of the refineries on the Gulf Coast happen to be located in foreign trade zones, where they can export Canadian oil to the world market without paying U.S. taxes. Oil Change International investigated this issue in a report that found the Keystone XL pipeline was part of a larger strategy to sell increasing volumes of Canadian crude on the international diesel market.

    In fact, TransCanada refused to support a requirement that oil on Keystone XL be used in the United States in a recent Congressional hearing. Earlier this month, Representative Edward Markey asked TransCanada’s President Alex Pourbaix to support a condition that would require the oil on Keystone XL to be used in the United States. Mr. Pourbaix refused, saying that a requirement to keep oil on Keystone XL in the United States would cause refineries to back out of their contracts. That very well may be the case as Valero, one of the largest prospective purchasers of Keystone XL’s crude, has already told its investors the its future business is in international export.

    Simply stated, Keystone XL is a way to get Canadian oil out of the United States, not into it.




    http://thinkprogress.org/green/2011/...foreign-lands/
    Note:

    Valero = refining company that specializes in refining "sour" crude, i.e. high sulfer content. Canadian tar sands = sourest of crude

    Most Venezualan crude is of this variety, btw.

    This is what I mean when I say the oil we are getting now is not the light sweet crude varieties of the past.

    Those Texas gushers you always see in the movies would not be possible, with the heavy thick stuff we are getting out of the ground now.

    Oddly enough, it is the cost of the natural gas used to heat the water and steam we have to inject to soften this heavy oil that adds to the cost of that oil. The recent US natgas boom has helped make this oil more viable.

  20. #145
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    yep, end-to-end processing costs, if fully factored into the pump price, would make tar sands/shale oil very expensive, but much of the costs are externalized to the environment, and Human-Citizens, just like with other carbon crap extractions. (uranium, gold, silver, diamond extractions are also horribly destructive)

  21. #146
    I am that guy RandomGuy's Avatar
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    Is it factually untrue, CC?

    The thing of it is, the US refineries are already exporting gasoline out of the country while running well below capacity.

    What does the pipeline really do for the US?
    A few jobs here and there.

    Hopefully it won't leak into a major aquifer. Of course that would create jobs too, I guess.

    Rainwater capture anyone?

  22. #147
    Veteran scott's Avatar
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    My take is that i don't have a solid position.

    A pipeline is probably the safest way to transport oil to refineries. However, I don't know that for certain.
    In my experience, isn't any more or less "safe" but it is significantly cheaper, if you have the volume to justify the huge upfront capital costs.

    I haven't really followed this debate over this pipeline, but my only concern with a pipeline of this size (like I said I haven't followed this and I don't even know how big it is proposed to be - my guess would be at least 36 to 42" diameter to be able to get the throughput required to justify the project) is that *if* it is underground, the heat of the crude can damage tundra ecosystems as it will literally thaw them out. To avoid this problem, the pipelines are built above ground, which presents its own set of challenges.

  23. #148
    Veteran scott's Avatar
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    It's been many years since my job was to follow the oil market, but my personal opinion is that investments in increased domestic production are not economically justifiable.

    Since I'm not in this industry anymore I haven't looked at a Canadian Crude assay in years, but one interesting dynamic of oil sands production is that the front end processing required makes it possible to "modify*" the crude to the various specs. So, the upstream processor can arbitrage heavy and sour differentials (in layman's terms: ship the most profitable crude). Some processing must already be done simply to get it to flow through the pipeline - some of the crude produced up there can be as viscous (aka, "heavy") as pitch, which doesn't flow through a pipeline.

    *This is done at a huge upfront capital cost, of which I'm not sure how much has actually be implemented. It's entirely possible the answer is none.

  24. #149
    Veteran scott's Avatar
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    And before anyone accuses me of not reading this thread... I readily admit to as much.

  25. #150
    Mr. John Wayne CosmicCowboy's Avatar
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    Look guys...I'm not saying I like oil sands oil production...It's a nasty, ugly way to get oil. That being said, the Canadians are going to produce and ship it somewhere. I'd rather they ship it to Texas.

    And Scott...this isn't the Alaskan pipeline...once it's in the US I really don't think we are gonna have to worry about permafrost...

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