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Despite being the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference last season, the aging San Antonio Spurs were left for dead after their first-round loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. Tim Duncan was too old, Manu Ginobili was too injured and the supporting cast was too weak. After a five-game win streak bookended by victories at the Grizzlies, however, it's looking like it's time to rethink things.
Here's how the TeamRankings.com future projections see the season turning out for Gregg Popovich's crew:
Chances of making the playoffs: 98.1 percent
Chances of winning the Southwest: 76.3
Chances of making the NBA Finals: 17.0
Chances of winning the NBA le: 6.0
As things stand, even with Ginobili's injury, the Spurs don't have terrible odds. Last season the Dallas Mavericks went into the playoffs with roughly a 6 percent chance of winning the le; just because a team isn't a big favorite doesn't mean it can't win it all. If Ginobili can return and then stay healthy, he might be enough to make San Antonio a strong contender.
Counting on all three Spurs stars to be 100 percent for the playoffs is risky business, however, and even if they are healthy, there are some holes in San Antonio's lineup. Here is a look at those weaknesses and some trades that would improve the Spurs' le odds.
Weaknesses
Wing scoring -- Richard Jefferson may be hitting 3s, but he's making barely 40 percent of his 2s and has a player efficiency rating well below the league average. Ginobili's return probably will make a difference, but a little more firepower off the bench still wouldn't hurt.
Defense from the 4 -- DeJuan Blair is great on the boards, but he's a bit undersized. Matt Bonner is a great shooter, but he's a little slow. Between the two of them, they are allowing opposing power forwards a PER of 17.6 (from 82games.com), a serious weak point for a team currently 13th in overall defensive rating. In their previous four championships, the Spurs were first, second, third and first in defensive rating, so improvement in this area is necessary.
(In)consistency -- Every season since their last championship in 2007, the Spurs have been in the top 10 in TeamRankings.com's consistency ratings, including being fifth this season. Consistency sounds like a good thing, but for a dark horse contender, it can actually be a detriment to pulling off playoff upsets.
A great example of why this is can be found with VCU in last year's NCAA tournament -- if you're a wannabe Cinderella, the numbers will tell you that your best strategy is to be a streaky team and just pray that you get hot at the right time. (For more of an explanation, click here.) The Spurs could use a hot-or-cold player who has the chance to catch fire and help deliver a key playoff win over the Oklahoma City Thunder or Miami Heat.
Deals
Fortunately for Spurs fans, they have a few tradable assets. Blair, Kawhi Leonard, Daniel Green, James Anderson, Gary Neal and Tiago Splitter are all skilled, young players who are expendable given the right deal. Here's a look at three deals that might help Tim Duncan win one for the thumb.
Bonner, Anderson and a first-round pick to Memphis for O.J. MayoMayo would solve the wing scoring issue for the Spurs, and when Ginobili returns, Mayo would add firepower off the bench. His addition might not help the defense but could turn San Antonio into the league's best offense.
Mayo also provides the variance that could help the Spurs score an upset in the playoffs. His career high in points, for example, is more than Bonner's and Anderson's combined; when he's hot, the guy goes off. He may keep the ball from Tony Parker and Ginobili more than desired, but that's the risk San Antonio may need to take to win it all.
Green and Anderson to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Anthony RandolphRandolph doesn't get much playing time behind Kevin Love and Derrick Williams, but he's only 22 and has had a PER over 16 during all four seasons in the league. He blocks shots, rebounds and finishes at the rim. Even if Popovich has to get him to focus on defense, Randolph could cheaply become the power forward of the present and future for a Spurs team that needs a long and athletic player at the 4.
Bonner, Leonard and Anderson to the Cleveland Cavaliers for Anderson Varejao
If there's a perfect player to address the Spurs' immediate defensive deficiencies, it's Varejao. His mediocre offense is paired with the length, quickness and intelligence needed to check the elite power forwards out West. That list is long, with LaMarcus Aldridge, Blake Griffin, Pau Gasol, Dirk Nowitzki, Zach Randolph, Paul Millsap, and even possibly Love on the horizon as playoff foes. Varejao could be the defensive stopper to follow in Bruce Bowen's footsteps.
Make no mistake: With the West still looking for a group of strong favorites, a seemingly minor addition to the Spurs, when paired with Ginobili's return from injury, could vault them to the top of the conference. It would still take some luck once the Finals rolled around, but the Spurs' le hopes are more than just a distant dream.
