Reply With Quote
The problem with Matt has always been the playoffs. Nobody here cares about the regular season, tbh.
That's all the options we have...This is actually getting pretty funny.
Just because you present two options doesn't mean they have to be 50/50.
Not worth it. Winning the regular season doesn't win you a trophy.Good thing people can't play matchups and plan against him in the regular season!
A strawman argument is when someone makes a point unrelated to the argument and guns it down, and pretends he refuted the original point. That is not what I did. Learn what logical fallacies are if you want to play in that space.KeepAlso, the 1,000 number I chose was arbitrary, and that he's taken 1,471 shots in the playoffs shows nothing about sample size without the proper context.that...
Maybe we should ask Bernoulli to take 3s in the playoffs...If I dust off the binomial distribution and come up with some confidence intervals and hypothesis tests that show the sample size is way too small, would knuckleheaded you even be able to understand it?
The problem with Matt has always been the playoffs. Nobody here cares about the regular season, tbh.
Dislike. Envy. Same thing.
People need a scapegoat. Bonner never has and never will determine the fate of the Spurs in the playoffs. He can help or hurt, but the Spurs will only go as far as the stars take them, series after series (or just one). Unless, of course, you guys expect the Spurs to have great players up and down the roster.
Manu getting hurt every year. Tony getting outplayed by the opposing PG. Duncan getting older. Those are the serious problems. Complain about that if you want. The Spurs didn't get swept by the ing Suns, and they didn't get beat by an 8th seed, because of Matt Bonner.
The Spurs need the Big 3 to play BIG. They need more depth up front. They need better team defense. But continue focusing on Matty while he chows down a hoagie and takes another dump.
You lost me when you compared the game of basketball to roulette. The game of basketball is far, far different than a flip of a coin or a spin of a roulette wheel. Emotions (which include fear, confidence, trepidation, etc.), chemistry, experience and other intangible elements play a sizable role in the eventual outcomes. Regarding basketball, considering that the past is very likely to have been influenced by such intangibles, it's not much of a logical leap to say that the past can give you a hint of what will come in the future. And when the exact patterns are viewed on multiple occurrences, the ability to chalk everything up to variance decreases greatly.
There has been very little study on clutchness and the role it plays in the NBA. In fact, I bet you can't even point me to one study that supports your statement that clutchness has no bearing on the future. The studies you are referencing most likely are regarding baseball, which I believe is not fairly comparable.
Moreover, recent studies prove that pressure has a measurable affect on NBA players (click here if interested). With baseball, even that has never truly been proven. So the fact that pressure undeniably changes how an NBA player performs begins one on the road to understanding that pressure affects different players more than most.
I mean, I hope you can show me the light and point me to studies that back your claim. It'd be much easier if I believed in Bonner's biggest bugaboo simply being variance. But as the studies come out about pressure and its relationship to NBA players, the less I can believe it's simply been a glorious fluke.
Anyways, thanks for responding and hopefully you respond again
Meh, I pointed out when the Memphis series was over that Matt wasn't the sole reason we lost...
His production (or lack thereof), however, does exacerbates the difficulties the team has, simply because of the system we use. And this is what timvp was pointing earlier on the Blair vs Bonner argument. The system puts a lot of weight on the stretch 4 creating the spacing for the guards and Tim to play inside. When your designated shooter can't deliver, you really are screwed.
On the defensive end, Tim has aged and physical basketball like the brand you see in the playoffs does take a toll on him. He needs help, and a soft, poor rebounder like Matt hardly provides much help. Thus, seeing Tiago getting an emergency appearance in the last few games of the series was hardly surprising.
All that said, let me point it out again: He was not the sole reason.
In general, alot of the hate is that Bonner does not conform to the traditional skills of his position, and a lack of understanding of the value of his play, misinterpreting the extra missed shots from shooting 3's as fast break points/opportunities(He shoots 40%, which means he misses 60%, and lots of fast breaks from long rebounds), where the majority of statheads view them as extra opportunities to rebound, and the longer shots increase the probability of an offensive rebound(There was a paper at Sloan about this effect this year.) His defense is occasional poor, and he s up, but if he was a great defender as well as a 40% shooter, he'd get paid a ton more. People just expect the defense to be great here, as the players who've traditionally been here at PF/C have been great defenders. Could call this a cultural legacy of D-Rob/Tim.
I agree with a lot of what Drz has said. Sample size is small, and from a statistical POV, we're far better off using the regular season to predict playoff performance, if we assume each shot is an independent trial(as most people would model it.) We don't know whether the poor performance is just random deviation from long run performance(in which case, he's as likely to underperform in the playoffs again as any other player), or if there are specifics to Matt Bonner that explain the failing. For this, you'd look at style of play(e.g, Shooting big men/Role playing shooting bigs etc) and find a group of players similar in style to Bonner, then test for performance in the playoffs vs not in the playoffs. If, as a group, their performance suffered in the playoffs(on a per minute basis, adjusted for usage etc) then you predict a falloff from Bonner.
The other unknown, which you can't look at past statistics for, is performance under pressure, using a psychological profile of Matt, and how a person with that profile tends to perform under high(er) stress situations.
Simply saying Bonner has sucked in the playoffs before, so he will again is not really a valid argument. It's an opinion, and there is data of a sort to support it, but you're taking a bucket of data and ignoring the ocean.
Bonner is a dark cloud hanging over the team. Even the departure of RJ and the return of SJAX does not dispel the despair of an impending Bonner playoff appearance.
Especially when you realize there's better cards that should be played.
Someone in this thread said that, the hate for Bonner is irrational, but there is no need for Popovich to play him so much more minutes than Tiago Splitter.
I completely agree. I don't see the reason for the excessive hatred for a bit player like Bonner who is paid sub-par money for a big in the middle of his career (just past his peak?) and he certainly does not typify or explain the Spurs' lack of championships (unlike their tremendous success generally).
For me, Bonner is a great situational player, helpful against certain matchups, against certain teams that are dullards in defense and don't respect his 3-shot, and against certain coaches. And he is paid par money for a situational player.
I don't however think that he deserves his excessive minutes over Splitter. It is only because the Spurs have a very skewed bigs roster - a Duncan whose minutes have to be managed in his evening of his career, a undersized big in Blair - and because Pop has skewed the minutes in favour of Bonner over Splitter that we see what we see today.
I hope the Spurs quickly get Diaw (most favourable) or Turiaf (less optimal but a decent addition) to address this skew. Once they do that, I think the skew in favour of Bonner over Splitter will be lessened. And Bonner's abilities can be better maximised as a situational player.
Doesn't take a rocket scientist (ha-ha) to see that the more pressure packed a game is, the more Bonner starts to panic out on the floor. He'll start rushing shots, making mental miscues, etc. He also plays very timidly. I think he could break out of this negative pattern if he focused on playing more like Brian Cardinal "the Custodian" and quit worrying about everything and just start playing tough basketball. I think once he laid somebody out on the floor his confidence would shoot through the roof. He has the physical tools to be a hard nosed defender out there if he wanted to be. Officials tend to respect those types more. I think he's just plain scared of getting chewed out by Pop over something dumb. Which is a crying shame.
Excuse the interruption, but if you're really a professional statistician and you come up with such an incredibly false comparison, then I can't believe you're making your money out of statistical analyses.
For someone who keeps telling many different people how stupid they are, you sound pretty dumb yourself, tbh.
He has determined the fate. That happens when he's getting 20+ minutes in crucial playoff games at a crucial position. Remember game 6 last year when Dice reinjured his neck and Bonner had to play instead? The game was pretty much lost during that time period. When Dice came back in Randolph was on fire and couldn't be stopped.
Exactly Bonner at best is situational. Remember when Stojakovic was getting abused by Bosh in the Finals? Carlisle made the adjustment and realized that wasn't a good series/matchup for him. If he had continued to play the Mavs probably lose the Finals. It's the exact same thing with Bonner. There are some matchups that are just bad for him.
The problem is Bonner plays like he's 6 ft. I've never seen a guy so big play so small. At 6'10 he should be able to get his shot of against most guards. With his bulk he should be able to muscle his way in the post.teams respect his shot after OJ Mayo makes him put the ball on the floor
33% on 3's is bad for a guy who only takes wide open 3's. In the playoffs most players take 3's with defenders just about to block their shot. Bonner only takes the wide open kind.
Bonner is pretty much a casualty of game planning in the playoffs. Playoff opponents can look at the plus/minus numbers and realize how important Bonner is. As a result they gameplan to take him out of the game. Usually you gameplan against the star players but because of how Bonner is used it's a unique situation. He's a crutch for the big 3 that hurts the team when taken away.
I'm no Bonner hater, but if that plan you're talking about consists of constantly leaving him wide open and attacking him when he's defending the post, then yea, I guess you're right.
+1
Funny thing is, the Memphis Grizzlies not only took him out of every game, they did it using an assortment of guards so they could continue to stuff the paint with bigs.
I can only imagine that Lionel Hollins must have spent many nights leading up to the playoffs game planning every little detail on how to shut down Pop's
little 3-ring circus/dog and pony show.
Maybe this year he will finally get to 150 3PA. Sorry but using a small sample size to try and claim it is a good predictor and discount the notion that there could be a progression to the mean just doesn't hold water.
I'm with you on Bonner being a pussy in crunch time. You can watch him and see it in his body language but putting up 18 shot attempts as if its meaningful doesn't posit anything.
The funny thing is I've always wondered why team don't just come down the court and shoot 3 pointers every time when they are behind big. It's one of the most efficient shots and with enough attempts you will progress to the mean. Remember McGrady's 13 points in 35 seconds? I think that could happen more often if teams used that strategy.
Yes, one of those guys plays his position: Duncan.
The quote you posted didn't say he was below the median on defense, it said he's below median of everyone at his position. That his great shooting percentage doesn't bring him into the top half of the league is a condemnation of his horrible defense and lack of rebounding.
Funny how you only include one side of the game if it suits your argument. Bonner took Horry's spot, on both offense and defense. With Horry the Spurs went to at least the conference finals. With Bonner the Spurs have been upset three years in a row in humiiliating fashion. Sorry you refuse to do the ing math.
The Dallas Mavericks tried that about 15 years ago. It doesn't work.
Wow Drz really does only come out when Bonner's honor is at stake. Your hostile approach makes it more comical, is that what you're going for?
Why would looking at his regular season statistics raise our confidence in his playoff performance when the two are so different? Bonner tends to do well against teams who are average to below average defensively. Looking at his regular season statistics vs. playoff caliber teams would be a better way to go about things IMO. Against teams like Orlando, Philly, Chicago, Miami, Bonner has either shot poorly or shot very little (he did play well against Dallas 3 times though). Against OKC, hes shot well at 50% from the 3 (38.5% overall), but his makes and attempts are fewer compared to his season averages (1.3M down from 1.8 and 2.7 A down from 4.1A.) Bonner has a averaged 3+ 3pointers makes vs. teams like Utah, Washington, Charlotte, Detroit and Atlanta. None of those are great defensive teams and only the Hawks are currently in playoff standings. Its not strictly one way or the other but more often then not he struggles against playoff teams as opposed to playing very well against teams who are less disciplined.
Additionally, Bonner has a very specific quality that he brings to the team. Minimizing that quality only reveals that he does very little else well. But I don't dislike Bonner the player. It's actually pretty fun watching Bonner (or any player) light up teams from downtown. But Pop has to make the adjustment when Bonner is ineffective.
Drz...with the effective Bonner support troll goods, tbh.
What a bunch of garbage disguised as a polite argument.
Shoulda' known you were a troll when you initially posted.
" There are three kinds of lies;lies, damned lies and statistics."
Color it any way you want....or you could just watch a in' game.
Lame troll, but I'll give you credit for duping us into playing...
Why Bonner is disliked?
Because he sucks, plain and simple. No defense, no rebounding and has feet of cement so when Timmy needs help guarding he's not where he's needed so Timmy has to guard the paint by himself! When needed to shoot or make shots, nothing but bricks! He nowhere to be found in the playoffs, therefore he's overpaid and worthless! For all that, he get's minutes at the expense of others who play a whole lot better! Too bad they didn't trade his worthless ass!
There are currently 1 users browsing this thread. (0 members and 1 guests)
Posting Permissions