This should be up for a pulitzer, great got damn analysis.
thanks timvp (its more like 11 points)!
believe! we will beat them... and I dont care how many games it will take us to do so!
This should be up for a pulitzer, great got damn analysis.
'Bout damn time. It's getting annoying that most of us here are afraid of the thunder to the point that they are slobbering over their asses. I am afraid of them too, but for God's sake have faith on our team.
Believe.
The addition of Diaw and Jackson can not be underestimated here. Both of them are difference-makers on D.
Parker also improved his D a lot at the start of the playoffs (see the quotes from him and Pop re: his effort with the French NT). He seems possessed on that end.
The transition defense is probably the most crucial key to this series. Putting myself in Pop's shoes, I trap Durant every time he touches the ball. I'll treat Westbrook like cp3, rotating defensive players on him (tony,danny,kawhi). Force others to beat me. Nothing frustrates a team more than having to force up shots from their fourth or fifth options. Also, If the spurs can figure out a way to close the passing lanes and force turnovers, this series could be over a lot quicker than people realize.
Awesome write-up as always John err I mean timvp.
I think Tony and Westbrook will equal each other, and Tim will outplay their frontline. If Manu rises his play I'm very confident in this team.
I think SA should actually go over the screens and force westbrook to drive
his drives are so out of control
he just jumps high and throws his body into defenders hoping he draws fouls, im amazed hes so durable which you would never believe watching him play
hes not very good at the drive kick game
imo the reason hes averaging career low in turnovers in the playoffs is because he hasnt been driving as much
teams are giving (not that they can really stop it) the midrange shot and it works in his favor since hes hitting it at a decent clip
he gets in trouble and turns the ball over when he drives and the teams dont foul or he throws bad bailout passes on his drive kick attempts
and SA is one of the best at contesting without fouling and the new guys on the team seem to have good hands at contesting/deflecting/covering passing lanes
I don't know if he's trying to set himself up against disappointment, but timvp's tone in his Thunder preview seems way too pessimistic, to the point that even fans in Oklahoma City seem to be more inclined to believe that the Spurs will win (as evidenced by their predictions in their forum). Granted, I'm aware that the latter point seems a tad ironic considering he states that the Spurs are the favorites in this series -- not to mention, the thread le explicitly states "Why I Believe," -- but time and again throughout his post, he seems to hedge his belief in the Spurs, to the point where one can't help but get the impression that he feels these two teams are absolutely evenly matched, and that the series will ultimately come down to what essentially amounts to a coin flip.
Consider the following points:
A. The Spurs are the better team.
1. The Spurs' point differential of +7.17 for the regular season is over a full point better than the Thunder's +6.12. That difference was even more pronounced in the last quarter of the season, wherein the Spurs' point differential was an astounding +12.71, making the Thunder's +6.12 pale in comparison.
2. It's already been established that the Spurs are better offensively than these Thunder: their offensive efficiency of 108.5 is again over a full point better than their counterpart's 107.1. But what makes this even more glaring is that even though the Thunder's defensive efficiency was better than that of the Spurs by the slimmest of margins -- 100.6 to 100.0 -- as timvp himself and many others pointed out, much of that was registered earlier in the season when the team still featured Jefferson and Blair prominently in the rotation. When you consider the significant improvement that's come since then, it really isn't a stretch to say that the Spurs are better BOTH offensively AND defensively than the Thunder.
B. The Spurs match up well with the Thunder.
1. The Spurs and Thunder met thrice in the regular season. In all three matchups, Manu Ginobili did not play due to injury, and all occurred prior to the arrival of Stephen Jackson and Boris Diaw. In spite of this, and the fact that 2 out of the 3 meetings were in Oklahoma City, the Spurs managed to win 2 out of 3 of them, with a point differential of +2.67. And it's not just this season: the Spurs are a combined 8 - 2 over the Thunder over the last 3 seasons. So if the Spurs have consistently shown that they match up well with the Thunder, how much wider will the disparity then be when the Spurs are at full strength, and when 4 out of the 7 games will be played in San Antonio?
To win in the playoffs, you either have to be better than your opponent, or you have to match up well with them. The Spurs are both. To be sure, this series will be more difficult than the last two, but barring injury, it's really difficult to conclude anything other than the Spurs being definitive favorites to win.
Prediction: Spurs in 5.
Last edited by Uriel; 05-24-2012 at 07:07 AM.
#7
is an especially interesting point.
I think Duncan being double teamed so infrequently is a big plus yet again. Ibaka will join the paratroopers club. He will get his blocks, but Tim can use him. Tim can go over the top or around Perkins.
Imo opinion Tim being doubled so sparingly has opened up so much from the outside along with good penetration from Parker with others. Tim healthy and singled makes it so much easier for him to score and pass. The doubles were really hurting him when he became less capable imo.
Good points and well thought out. Thanks!
I really believe the extra ingredient to this series is discipline. Its how the Spurs have played forever and now they have 10-11 guys who stay within themselves and the game plan. When they bring the energy and focus, that discipline becomes the deciding factor and wears down the opponent.
OKC has a few more playoffs under the belt and may be tougher, but they are still young and susceptible to emotions. Our youngest player does not show emotion, only energy and passion.
OKC has 3 very talented players who can quite frankly get hot in the 4th quarter and win a game or two. The Spurs have 3 of their own and then 8 more guys that are definite threats when they are hot.
I will throw OKC a few games due to their crazy home court games and the possibility of their stars getting hot in the 4th. So initially, I thought it would take 6 games to finish them. On the other hand, I am a Homer and do believe this team will get into the Thunder's heads early and often with their discipline and consistent, never let up offense.
Spurs in 5.
timvp, Do you think that Pop utilizes Blair at all this series as he's had quite the success this year against OKC? Or is that just Fool's Gold thinking that? Can he be effective after sitting a whole entire series practically?
mando
puuuuuuussssssaaayyyyyyyy
About the winning streak, everyone on the team is aware that it means nothing if the final result is not a championship, especially the veterans who have experienced different scenarios. I'm confident they have the "we can lose a game, but we will not blow the series" at ude, and prevail even if the series is long.
I SO second this notion.
Thanks again for the sweep-- *ahem* I mean... sweet write-up again, timvp.
*The above sentence was a joke, btw... hence the "cheeky" icon... But once again, The Spurs are MORE than welcome to keep proving people (myself included) wrong, if they wish to.
- How can a team that swept the reigning champs and went 3-1 vs. Lakers have less momentum that a team that swept the lowly Jazz and the injured Clips? And no I don't count regular season winning streaks. (not to mention Harden's injury)
- As of today Manu is not Spurs best swingman. Far from it.
- Live by the 3 die by the 3
This series will come down to the following:
- can Duncan still dominate opposing bigs?
- can Durant be contained?
- can Manu improve his game to at least match Harden?
I'm sticking with my original prediction, Spurs in 6.
Ibaka to me more and more reminds me of a more athletic Marcus Camby. Gets a lot of blocks, Decent post game, thinks he's a jump shooter when he really isn't.
His defensive reputation IMO comes off his blocking every shot and guys like that are terrible one on one cause you can uptake them out of the gym IE Deandre Jordan.
easy three
1. expose Thunder bigs ->2. force them to play small. -> 3. win transition battle /trans D esp./
Maybe not more athletic but different frame
But good comparison
Duncan hasn't dominated up till now?
I can't call sweep but the Spurs should win this series in 5 or 6. I know it's against the conventional wisdom, but I think Westbrook is overrated. I don't think he's ready to try to outgun Tony Parker in a playoff series and it would make my playoffs so far to see him utterly fail to do that.
This, plus WestBRICK is not the passer and does not have the court vision TP has, imo.
Turnovers in that Laker series were incredible. The Thunder offense was no way that efficient. They played near-perfect IIRC during that big Game 4 comeback that was capped off by Durant's contested 25 footer.
There's just no way in the Thunder do that again.
Thunder's best defenders are negated by Spurs style of play.Perkins can't defend pick n roll.Thabo is wasted by being in starting lineup.They were perfectly built to beat the Lakers.
Thabo on Kobe in iso ball
Perkins on Bynum strictly post ups-Duncan more versatile than bynum.
Too much speed for Lakers
Had no one to go at Westbrook.Sessions was skerred.
Spurs in 5
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