In retrospect, if Manu doesn't suffer a broken arm, and if Duncan doesn't twist his ankle late in the season, you see a different result. I would say the series would go 7 games with the Spurs winning. That game one really screwed the Spurs.
You can say that the stars aligned for Memphis, which I won't argue against because they were very playoff ready, but Manu is the driving force behind this team. He just wasn't himself in the playoffs. You get a Manu in game shape and devoid of injury, you have a shot against anybody. Furthermore, despite Pop's effort to micromanage Tim's minutes, the ankle injury really ed him up after that, he just wasn't the same.