To be honest, what's your confidence level for Game 6

[Mugen]

I crunched some numbers and all I could come up with is:

ax^2 + b -c = Matt Bonner is a got.

[Russo21]

I crunched some numbers and all I could come up with is:

ax^2 + b -c = Matt Bonner is a got.

[Mugen]

I said Spurs in 7...I still have a chance to be right (albeit slim)

, it's happenin!

[Man In Black]

50-50

Why not the Spurs?

The support team has to play much better, they need to show us 2 good games. That's it and the Spurs can win this.

[clambake]

I agree that's how they played, but it's a byproduct of the rotations. Pop goes small, Pop inserts guy who hasn't played in 2 months, Pop benches starter, Pop plays fourth big first off the bench, Pop plays fourth big first off the bench alongside guy who hasn't played in 2 months.

he did it for a reason. the only option was to find a matchup that could work. their play forced his hand.

not on pop. it happens.

[DubMcDub]

You really think 20%? Thunder haven't lost at home all playoffs, have all the momentum in the world, and even if the Spurs have a lead at any point, have shown they have the poise to withstand any runs the Spurs go on, and oh yea--they have the best closer on the court in Kevin Durant. 2% seems about right.

Problem for the Spurs is that their role players are disappearing. Even if Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, Jackon have big games--they still need a role player or two to step up--and Bonner, Splitter, Green, Neal have not shown that. Meanwhile, the Thunder role players are going to play even better at home which is guaranteed and scary for the Spurs. I don't think Ibaka and Perkins and Collison will for 21-22 or whatever they made in Game 4, but they will play better.

Spurs had a chance--actually more than a chance, 3 chances in fact, to put away the Thunder and they couldn't. No one to blame but themselves--and Pop, at this point.

20% is completely fair. You'll see the Vegas odds even higher than that--probably closer to 30% or 35%.

[jestersmash]

too many gnsf in this thread.

where are the regulators?

It's a Spurs forum and we're upstairs. It's to be expected.

I'm sure the mods will clean up the GNSF-filth (if necessary) for the gameblog downstairs during Dallas' 1st round Game 5, so I wouldn't worry too much.

[Tuddy]

Have to go with Splitter on the block. He has to get it out of his head that the guards are going to flop everytime they switch. He is the one who can get his shot whenever he wants outside of the big 3.

Believe

[emanueldavidginobili]

50% Spurs win, 2% is just ridiculous..Spurs lost 3 games in a row do you really think this team cant go out there and win a game, come on now

[Cant_Be_Faded]

30%


Thunder stole our mojo. They look like the team of destiny now. Durant is a bigger, clutcher Kobe, their scrubs are hitting clutch shots, they are suffocating us in defense, they are getting 50-50 calls on the road.

And prime factor number 1 IMO, is that after playing career low minutes
After having a full week to rest coming into the series

Duncan looks slow and tired, and looked scared to shot open jump shots in the clutch.

The spurs interior defense is Duncan,.and Duncan was slow to every rotation for the last 12 quarters

[clambake]

It's a Spurs forum and we're upstairs. It's to be expected.

I'm sure the mods will clean up the GNSF-filth (if necessary) for the gameblog downstairs during Dallas' 1st round Game 5, so I wouldn't worry too much.

no cleaning is needed.

where are the people that fought tooth and nail for years?

i miss the gang that would drop the hammer.

[spurraider21]

honestly, i'm more sure we will take game 6 then i was we would win game 5. seeing the way the boys played in the second half (minus the run to close the third), i was as proud as i ever have been of the spurs. they will not lose game 6. they will not.

timvp, you started this thread, and you of all people should...

Believe.

[SA210]

I agree that's how they played, but it's a byproduct of the rotations. Pop goes small, Pop inserts guy who hasn't played in 2 months, Pop benches starter, Pop plays fourth big first off the bench, Pop plays fourth big first off the bench alongside guy who hasn't played in 2 months.

This in right here.

WTF POP!

[Obstructed_View]

he did it for a reason. the only option was to find a matchup that could work. their play forced his hand.

not on pop. it happens.

The Spurs were up at the end of the first quarter of game three. Pop then went nuts with "adjustments" and the offense has gone completely to ever since.

[gameFACE]

Confidence level is 50/50. The rational part of me thinks history is totally against the Spurs and the Spurs have shown throughout the years they are a safe team that doesn't break any pre-established patterns. They can plan their vacations on Thursday. The irrational part of me knows the Spurs pulled of a great late season and playoff run. And they're so typical of the old idea that "it gets worse before it gets better". So I'm going with the latter and say they will pull off a comeback.

[siraulo23]

I crunched some numbers and all I could come up with is:

ax^2 + b -c = Matt Bonner is a got.

x= + or - sqrt [[(Matt Bonner is a got) + c - b] / a]

your welcome

[Bruno]

You really think 20%? Thunder haven't lost at home all playoffs, have all the momentum in the world, and even if the Spurs have a lead at any point, have shown they have the poise to withstand any runs the Spurs go on, and oh yea--they have the best closer on the court in Kevin Durant. 2% seems about right.

1Parker1 is back.

I agree with everything you said but it's still basketball. It isn't rocket science. A big part of the game is based on hitting jumpshot and there are a lot of variability in it. Spurs can easily get hot and Thunder get cold. Even if you think that only a miracle or a fluke will allow Spurs to win game 6, this miracle or fluke has a greater than 2% chance to happen. That's just the nature of the game.

[eyeh8u]

100% spurs in 7.

[ElNono]

No chance. Too many players folded, tbh, and this was at home. This was the game to win and put the pressure on them. It's ok... we can look back at a great season.

[100%duncan]

Confidence level (head says) - low.

Hope level (heart says) - very high.

Have been vaccinated with too much Duncan, Manu and Parker to give it up so soon.

This. 2% sounds stupid tbh.

[clambake]

The Spurs were up at the end of the first quarter of game three. Pop then went nuts with "adjustments" and the offense has gone completely to ever since.

to be honest, the worm was turning. he could see it in their eyes and gate.

[SPurs206]

50% I feel better now than I did game 5. I see some fight left in them.

[Richie]

Personally I didn't start watching til just a few years ago, but how can you compare this to 2004? I'd take a Game 6 vs this Thunder team over the reigning (3-peat) Lakers with two Top 10 all time players

[angelbelow]

50-50 for me.

Unfortunately, I've missed most of the past three games so I don't really have a good reason as to why.

[SPurs206]

1Parker1 is back.

I agree with everything you said but it's still basketball. It isn't rocket science. A big part of the game is based on hitting jumpshot and there are a lot of variability in it. Spurs can easily get hot and Thunder get cold. Even if you think that only a miracle or a fluke will allow Spurs to win game 6, this miracle or fluke has a greater than 2% chance to happen. That's just the nature of the game.

I also believe probablity has a lot to do with a game. Its like blackjack.