Summer 2012: State of the Spurs

[polandprzem]

[Slippy]

Excellent read.

Defensively, I think the Spurs should rely on growth and tweaks. Kawhi Leonard, Danny Green (if re-signed) and Tiago Splitter should be much better defensively in their second full year in the rotation

Fingers crossed Tiago is healthy when pre-season comes around.

[Cane]

Good stuff. Kind of depressing that we're talking about needing another PF/C, it's been that way for far too long.

It'll be interesting to see if the Spurs gamble on old vets again like Kevin Garnett for the PF/C and Jason Kidd as the backup PG. That'd be one of a veteran last stand

[Russo21]

, Kidd would be awesome as a backup PG here!! Don't get my hopes up mate lol

[benefactor]

You can try and pretend I didn't say it, but that wouldn't be fair.

lol RMJ

Please post me a quote where you said that the Spurs would get rid of RJ for Jack, sign Diaw and go on three double digit win streaks including one with 20 wins that spilled over into the playoffs.

I'll wait.

[Horse]

With all due respect cause you do a great job, blah blah blah. If we dont have stern screw us we're still playing and I think we matchup better with miami than okc does. End of story.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

With all due respect cause you do a great job, blah blah blah. If we dont have stern screw us we're still playing and I think we matchup better with miami than okc does. End of story.

Get real. OKC was a better team. And Miami is a better team then them right now. Miami would have kicked the Spurs butts too.

[Dr. John R. Brinkley]

if Lorbek can in fact be brought in - and all signs indicate this - the Hill for Leonard plus Lorbek rights trade will go down as one of the best moves of the last 10 years.

Spurs FO gambled on this one much more than they usually are willing to do.

sacrifice a solid young player for a pick is always a gamble. you never know if the player makes the transition and they also couldn't know if Lorbek will ever leave Europe, where he is a star and plays and lives in one of the greatest cities in the whole world.

they pulled the trigger. and won big time.

why I write this? one year ago I wouldn't have seen the option of trading a solid rotation player like Splitter for a pick as a possibility. this year, with the experience from the Hill trade, this looks different.

I think the FO has tasted blood and they do know that this can be a successful strategy to either build for the future and improve the current roster. I do hope the Spurs play this card and wouldn't be disappointed, if this time it doesn't work out as well as last summer. I would be disappointed, if they didn't try.

I agree about trading Splitter if the right deal and player come along.

What is your opinion of Lorbek's game and how it will translate to the Spurs?

[Ocotillo]

You make mention of it in the original post but I would amplify it more than you did and that is this years team was blessed without any injuries and it is just a long shot that next years team will have the same luck.

This was the first playoffs in years that Manu has been healthy and with the other guys healthy as well, it was easy to get excited about our chances.

I just don't see us entering the playoffs next year with the entire roster healthy.

I see why you put the chances of a at 1 to 3%, everything has to go just right and for the most part, it did go just right this year and it still wasn't enough.

[dylankerouac]

Thanks for the article Timvp. I like the potential of this new direction and I hope the franchise continues to gives it another shot, they really got so close this year especially after considering the expectations at the beginning of the season. I look forward to your scouting report of Lorbek.

[024]

honestly, this was the year the spurs could have won the championship in the twilight years of the big 3. the lock out season rewarded consistency, spurs suffered no great injuries nearing the playoffs (with the exception of ford), they miraculously landed the perfect role players, and met teams in the playoffs that they matched up well against. yet they still could not make it. who knows what injuries will come next season, how much better other teams will become. the spurs core will be another year older and another year slower.

the stars don't align any better than this season. they could not make it to the finals even with such fortunate events. this is the end of the big 3 era and the spurs management would be stupid to let their sentiment overpower their logic. they have to break up the big 3 and most likely trade ginobili. you can sit there and ponder over the ifs but the truth is the spurs had most of the balls bounce their way this season and it still was not enough.

[Horse]

Get real. OKC was a better team. And Miami is a better team then them right now. Miami would have kicked the Spurs butts too.

Nonsense we got f'd by the ref in gm 4,5 and even you can't deny gm 6. And just cause miami is beating okc doesn't mean they would beat us. Miami's weaknesses are the Spurs strengths. However you may be right considering stern would certainly sodomize us in the finals against miami.

[timtonymanu]

With all due respect cause you do a great job, blah blah blah. If we dont have stern screw us we're still playing and I think we matchup better with miami than okc does. End of story.

Hey donut boy.

[timtonymanu]

Great analysis, timvp and I agree. As long as Duncan, Ginobili, and Jack are around, rebuilding shouldn't be an option. Yes a few tweaks to the roster and we possibly are the NBA champions right now but there's no Durant or LeBron type of player coming in.

I did enjoy the season and might as well sit back and enjoy the ride like benefactor said.

[timtonymanu]

You can try and pretend I didn't say it, but that wouldn't be fair.

You also said Bonner would be valuable in the playoffs. How did that work out for you?

[polandprzem]

If we want some offense we can go for it and trade for Nowitzki

Clutch superstar who is tough cover.


We do not have guys that can go unstoppable.
We had Ginobili and Duncan previously but the time has passed.

I do not see spurs getting any better. Even if, it's still far more difficult to be in such comfortable situation next year as it was this.

The window is closed!

[polandprzem]

When TP takes over it's all about him and team does not matter. That's why you can shut him down and he cannot crate for others.
But still he is top3 PG

[Keepin' it real]

We were all waiting for this one...thanks timvp!

Great writing, as always.

Excellent read.

Good stuff.

Thanks for the article Timvp.

Great analysis, timvp and I agree.

Jesus, what a huge load of man-on-man fellatio. I'll make this quick so you all can get back on your knees in no time.

I agree about continuing to improve the offense. It's fun to watch and really the only legit shot the Spurs have to be compe ive, given their aging, or should I say aged, nucleus. Here's what I'm hoping for:

• Duncan retires. May he leave us with his legacy intact and still playing at a decent level. Think about it: even with all the coddling and days off from Pop during the regular season, and even with a week off between series in the playoffs, Tim had almost nothing left in the tank in the WCF. Honestly, how bad do you think he will look next season? Let's not go there. Ride into the sunset, big man! And thanks for the memories!
• Bonner jettisoned. 'Nuff said.
• Green shown the door. His collapse (not a slump, a total COLLAPSE) in the WCF is unforgivable, regardless of his youth. If he'll play for the minimum, keep him, but on the bench. As a consequence of his WCF choke, he should not be allowed to start next season.

Beyond this, let the front office do their stuff. I look forward to seeing who we have next season.

That took longer than I expected. Sorry, back on your knees, fellas.

Spit or swallow???

[polandprzem]

keep it real

[timvp]

... Let's throw expectations out the window yet again and see what happens. Worked out pretty well last season.

Pretty well said.

The Spurs entered this season with a low amount of expectations and were pretty darn close to going on a run for the ages. It probably won't happen again next year ... but maybe.

With Kawhi added to the mix and some other intriguing options, at least this time the Spurs have some sort of blueprint.

You can't say this is always true if there is a single exception. The 2004 Pistons come to mind. I'm sure there are other examples (perhaps I'm too young to know of them), but even one exception is enough to break a rule.

I think you misread what you quoted. I said teams with the best players are the favorites ... not that teams with the best players always win the championship.

Why do you attempt to estimate a priori probabilities? It makes no sense when the phenomenon in question (i.e. winning an NBA le) is so dynamic and dependent on so many variables. The probability could change on a daily basis, so what's the point of declaring it now?

My point was to assess the current situation of the Spurs. I thought that estimating their chances of winning a championship next year was an appropriate part of that assessment. Apologies if you think otherwise.

Here, I disagree slightly. I think the Spurs need to get better defensively and not just go for offense. As Pop said during one of his miked time outs during the playoffs, "Don't worry about offense, it will come. Just concentrate on D."

IMO, the 2012 Spurs were so good offensively that they never really had to worry about offense. But I think that was due to having personnel that was so talented on offense. The danger is if you shift too far back to defense, the Spurs will again have trouble scoring like 2008 thru 2010.

The way I see if, the Spurs have a much better chance of becoming overwhelmingly elite offensively than defensively. In fact, I don't think it's possible to become elite defensively when 40% of your clutch-time lineup is Duncan and Ginobili.

I agree with most of what you've said, LJ (what a change from last summer, lol), except that you forgot the part about telling Bonner to go play in the middle of I-35.

Bonner being eliminated should be a given, IMO. If Pop doesn't finally give up on him ... I don't even know what to say.

And it's not even enough to try to bury him on the bench. The dangerous part about Bonner is he's so good in the regular season that he'll end up winning a spot in the rotation again. But, of course, he'd end up sucking in the playoffs again.

As for comparing this summer to last summer, this summer is much more clear cut in terms of not rebuilding. Last summer I was a little bit unsure. But in retrospect with what we know now, it would have been really dumb to have blown things up. Much dumber than any one of us could have imagined -- mostly due to the addition of worthwhile youngsters and Parker taking his game up another level.

[baseline bum]

Much dumber than any one of us could have imagined -- mostly due to the addition of worthwhile youngsters and Parker taking his game up another level.

And due to dumping Jefferson. I never figured they'd get out of that contract and it was a huge part of why I wanted to completely blow the team up last summer.

[cheguevara]

Let's face reality. 2012 was a miserable failure for the Spurs. calling a team with Bonner memorable. if the 2005 Suns were not able to win it wall, there was no way in the 2012 Spurs were going to. Yet, spurs office and coach still tried to cram their offense first strategy.

If they continue doing that next year I predict more doom. plain and simple.

[baseline bum]

Spurs just gotta stay the course and hope for health and for Leonard to have a huge sop re campaign. I can't wait to see him with a training camp under his belt and a full-time starting position this coming season.

[ElNono]

One thing I expect is for some teams in the West to play much better next season. Don't forget this was a shortened season, with basically no training camp, and I think that hurt certain teams with new coaches (ie: Lakers) or teams that added/swapped new important pieces (ie: Clippers, Dallas). I thought the Spurs benefitted from the fact that most of their guys were already part of the program going into the season, so there was some continuity there.

[baseline bum]

Let's face reality. 2012 was a miserable failure for the Spurs. calling a team with Bonner memorable. if the 2005 Suns were not able to win it wall, there was no way in the 2012 Spurs were going to. Yet, spurs office and coach still tried to cram their offense first strategy.

If they continue doing that next year I predict more doom. plain and simple.

2011 was a miserable failure. 2012 they weren't that far from winning the West (of course Miami would have mopped the floor with them).