General 2013 Free Agency Discussion

[Richie]

Richie, the higher the cap, the better, for the simple fact that it would give them even more financial flexibility. And even at $70M, that still wouldn't open up cap space for any of the glamor teams.

I'd have to wonder whether the Spurs could afford to pay $70m, or more since they will still be able to offer up to the cap and then re sign Splitter. Also, it would mean Splitter getting closer to $15m than $10m with so much more money available to teams.

[Pop]

I'm not sure why most of you seem set on a starting PF. Splitter is at his best at PF where his suspect rebounding is less of an issue, sure his PER took a hit but the starting lineup as a whole is very successful. So the best move could be to look for a backup center if they don't believe Baynes is going to be a game changer.

Someone like Dalembert could be good, gives you rim protection and great rebounding when Tim is sitting.

I'd love to get Jack back if money is not an issue tbh.

Also something I don't see mentioned is the longer term strategy, they should think about having flexibility the year Manu retires. I talked about Evans because I see someone who could fit well with both TP and Green. Then next year Bledsoe and Hayward are gonna be RFA, pretty sure it'll be impossible to steal Hayward obviously and I don't think Bledsoe is all that realistic either but he could be a terrific fit in a 3 guards lineup with TP and Green, shooting over 40% from 3 this year and one the best PG defender in the league to switch the D when he'd play SG next to TP...

I think they have to think about the bench production and still optimize to get significant upgrades and players that can play 30+ minutes because they complement what we have already well.

The best option this summer could be to overpay a backup center on a short deal.

[Chinook]

I'm not sure why most of you seem set on a starting PF. Splitter is at his best at PF where his suspect rebounding is less of an issue, sure his PER took a hit but the starting lineup as a whole is very successful. So the best move could be to look for a backup center if they don't believe Baynes is going to be a game changer.

I understand why you say that, but I disagree. I think the starting lineup is better with Splitter as the power-forward because Splitter is better than Diaw. It's not because Splitter is a natural fit there. On the flip side, the bench is awful because Splitter fit best with that unit. He gave Ginobili an elite pick-and-roll partner, and Splitter himself operated better when he had Bonner spread the floor for him. Even though the Spurs' defense has been better this season, I don't know if I'd say the whole team is better.

A starting-caliber power-forward would help the Spurs by allowing them to put Splitter back where he belongs. It's also possible that this player would be a more versatile scorer than Splitter is, which would only help the starting unit. Also, if this player is a better rim protector than Splitter, the unit's defense may get better than it is right now.

Even if you don't believe that Splitter should be on the bench, getting a starting-caliber player is still a good idea. With Ginobili's decline, it's hard to see how the bench is going to survive without at least one really good player. Even if you bring a player like Milsap off the bench, he's be worth a hefty deal. That's even more of a concern if Ginobili goes to the starting unit next season. I think Pop needs to commit to playing one of Duncan and Splitter at all (important) times. This decreases the need for a backup center. A rotation of Duncan, Splitter and starting-caliber power-forward, with a little Diaw thrown in and Baynes for scrub minutes seems more than solid to me.

Obviously, we could compromise on an elite scoring center like Al Jefferson. He has enough offense to buoy the bench while also providing the back-up center you covet. I'd have major concerns over Jefferson's fit with Duncan and Splitter, though. In general, I don't see an impact bench big on the market right now. I like Dalembert as a back up if Splitter left in free agency, but I don't really like him as the player on whom the Spurs blow their cap space.

[Pop]

Well I want a starting caliber player as well, I just want that player to be a guard.

Like you said, with Manu declining, then it's TP and... No one good enough basically in the backcourt...

On the other hand I think our frontcourt is simply lacking in the rebounding departement and might not need a huge change, I even think Baynes could be enough to give the much needed rebounding boost backing up TD.

Tbh I wouldn't feel very confortable betting everything on Millsap when I got completely owned by Boris last year, maybe that's not completely rationnal but that's a big part of it.

[Richie]

Well I want a starting caliber player as well, I just want that player to be a guard.

Like you said, with Manu declining, then it's TP and... No one good enough basically in the backcourt...

On the other hand I think our frontcourt is simply lacking in the rebounding departement and might not need a huge change, I even think Baynes could be enough to give the much needed rebounding boost backing up TD.

Tbh I wouldn't feel very confortable betting everything on Millsap when I got completely owned by Boris last year, maybe that's not completely rationnal but that's a big part of it.

We need another big so we can rest Tim more. Drop his minutes to 27min/game and sit him on all back to backs.

Also, the only way we get this kind of cap space is by letting go of Bonner and Blair. That leaves us with Timmy/Tiago/Diaw/Baynes. Without another legit big, that would mean Baynes getting a regular 10 min/game and with any injury or rest (for Timmy) we would be forced to play Baynes 25+ min. That's just too much, you can't win games with a scrub playing that many minutes regularly IMO.

I can see the argument for another back court player, but Manu is almost certain to come back and if we want to go away from him I think we'd be better served giving Kawhi those touches. and still have Green giving us elite 3 point shooting for 30+ min/game

[Chinook]

Well I want a starting caliber player as well, I just want that player to be a guard.

Like you said, with Manu declining, then it's TP and... No one good enough basically in the backcourt...

On the other hand I think our frontcourt is simply lacking in the rebounding departement and might not need a huge change, I even think Baynes could be enough to give the much needed rebounding boost backing up TD.

Tbh I wouldn't feel very confortable betting everything on Millsap when I got completely owned by Boris last year, maybe that's not completely rationnal but that's a big part of it.

I don't think the Spurs need another starting-caliber guard unless Ginobili retires. That would give them four starting guards, two back up points to go along with one starting small-forward and only two legitimate bigs (and Diaw). That seems really unbalanced. If Manu comes back, he'll get his minutes. Green's going to get his minutes, and obviously Parker will get his. That really doesn't leave a lot of room for a player like Re (although in a vacuum, Monta Ellis would not be a bad fit next to Ginobili, especially if Diaw is also there to handle that ball some). If the Spurs really will have about $10 Million to spend in the summer, I'd much rather use it on someone who can play with Duncan and Splitter and not be a liability against mobile fours the way Splitter is now. I'd take Millsap or West over Re or Ellis any day.

[Pop]

I don't think the Spurs need another starting-caliber guard unless Ginobili retires. That would give them four starting guards,

Ok I guess you meant shooting not starting, because there one and a half starting caliber guard.

two back up points to go along with one starting small-forward and only two legitimate bigs (and Diaw). That seems really unbalanced. If Manu comes back, he'll get his minutes.

Yes he will, when he's healthy. Betting a season on Manu's health if we can help it does seem borderline irrational tho.

Green's going to get his minutes, and obviously Parker will get his. That really doesn't leave a lot of room for a player like Re (although in a vacuum, Monta Ellis would not be a bad fit next to Ginobili, especially if Diaw is also there to handle that ball some).

Well I think we could move Green to move up in the draft, maybe send him to Minnesota for the 25th pick or something if we can get a significant upgrade in free agency. It's like saying that Diaw is gonna get his minutes no matter what, I don't know how you can say that about a Danny Green. But yeah the three main guards are TP, Manu and Green right now, the problem is that Manu is declining quickly and he has priority over Green for obvious reasons.

If the Spurs really will have about $10 Million to spend in the summer, I'd much rather use it on someone who can play with Duncan and Splitter and not be a liability against mobile fours the way Splitter is now. I'd take Millsap or West over Re or Ellis any day.

I hear you, I agree that Re and Ellis are not huge upgrades, but it's not that simple, if we can pursue Bledsoe next year or instead be stuck with Millsap who is on a downward spiral, it doesn't sound as clear cut. The only thing that's for sure is that it's a very important choice since it'd be the last time we'd have any flexibily in the Duncan era.

[Pop]

And of course there's number where the Spurs won't feel it's worth matching the offer for Splitter since he's not even close to a max player so that could change everything as well.

[Chinook]

Ok I guess you meant shooting not starting, because there one and a half starting caliber guard.

I meant starting, meaning I was counting Parker, Green, Ginobili and whichever guard the Spurs bring in under your scenario as the four starters.

Yes he will, when he's healthy. Betting a season on Manu's health if we can help it does seem borderline irrational tho.

True. But that's less of a big deal if the Spurs can bring in a good young wing like Wes Johnson (I know he's not exactly "good", but you know what I mean), allow De Colo, Joseph, Green and Leonard to take bigger roles, and bring in a good big to fix the bench (by playing with the second unit and/or allowing Splitter to move back to the bench. If the Spurs can become a better, more balanced team, then Ginobili won't be as needed.

Well I think we could move Green to move up in the draft, maybe send him to Minnesota for the 25th pick or something if we can get a significant upgrade in free agency. It's like saying that Diaw is gonna get his minutes no matter what, I don't know how you can say that about a Danny Green. But yeah the three main guards are TP, Manu and Green right now, the problem is that Manu is declining quickly and he has priority over Green for obvious reasons.

If Ginobili is truly in decline (if this is how he's going to be for the rest of his career) then Green is the best two-guard on the Spurs. I know you don't like him, but every metric out there shows he's a great fit in the starting lineup, and he's still young enough to get significantly better. Because he's signed to a reasonable deal, there's little question he's worth more than a mid-20s pick to the Spurs. The Spurs used the 20th pick on James Anderson a few years ago, and Green's a better player. Unless there's a player at 25 they feel can be the Kawhi or shooting-guards, they will not move Green.

I hear you, I agree that Re and Ellis are not huge upgrades, but it's not that simple, if we can pursue Bledsoe next year or instead be stuck with Millsap who is on a downward spiral, it doesn't sound as clear cut. The only thing that's for sure is that it's a very important choice since it'd be the last time we'd have any flexibily in the Duncan era.

Indeed, this is a very important summer. It's possible the Spurs swing for the fences and try to bring in a disgruntled potential star like Cousins or Derrick Williams to pair with Leonard and make Duncan's job easier. I actually don't hate the Ellis idea (not that the Spurs can afford him), because he should be able to work with both Ginobili and De Colo/Joseph. I do think the bench is broken right now, though. Even if Ginobili can come back this season and boost it for the playoffs, something has to be done to avoid this type of lull again. Whichever players the Spurs feel will be the best at doing that, regardless or position, will get the call. We just have to hope they make the right one.

[pad300]

Anybody got access to this?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...e-annual-value

It might be of interest given we should have some cap-space...

[Bruno]

Anybody got access to this?

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...e-annual-value

It might be of interest given we should have some cap-space...

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topi...nts-are-worth/

[jesterbobman]

From the hawksquawk thread, Splitter valued at 3yrs, 21m and Millsap at 9million a year. Both should get more, and if Millsap got 9 and it wasn't from the Spurs, I'd be disappointed(Unless they got someone else good on a similar steal).

[pad300]

http://hawksquawk.net/community/topi...nts-are-worth/

Interesting set of valuations. He's calling splitter at $7M per year, and Ginobili at $5.5M. That implies we are in Max FA territory if we want to be, after signing those two...I'm not sure I believe it.

[Bruno]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...p-restrictions

We don't have firm values for next season's cap and tax levels yet (they're dependent on this season's revenues, which are largely dependent on which teams make the playoffs and how deep they go). At this point we can say the salary cap will be in the $58.5-60 million range next season, and the luxury-tax threshold will be somewhere in the $71.5-73 million range.

If the cap is really that low, it won't be a good news for Spurs.

[Richie]

A $60m cap would still give us a shot at a decent free agent as long as Manu took MLE money. Manu for $5m and a free agent for $9m would still give us room to improve.

[Chinook]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story...p-restrictions



If the cap is really that low, it won't be a good news for Spurs.

Thanks for that info. That's a lot lower than I was expecting. Honestly, the Spurs may not really have more than the MLE to use on a player this off-season. It may behoove them to try to trade Bonner instead of cutting him.

[bluebellmaniac]

Sham has updated salary inf on all the teams (just saw his tweet). All hail the great and powerful Sham!!!

Here's a link to the Spurs info:
http://data.shamsports.com/content/p...ries/spurs.jsp

[objective]

I was under the impression that Baynes had signed a 2+1+1 contract for some reason.

But Sham has him only signed through next year before being an RFA.

If true, that's very disappointing.

[Chinook]

I was under the impression that Baynes had signed a 2+1+1 contract for some reason.

But Sham has him only signed through next year before being an RFA.

If true, that's very disappointing.

It was reported that that was the case for the first few days of that ordeal. It eventually got clarified to be a two-year deal with nothing added on.

Technically, that reported deal was impossible anyway. Baynes could only have one option in his deal. It was possible for those last two years to be non-guaranteed, but that's different than what was reported.

[objective]

I don't see why it would have been impossible. It would just be the kind of deal that Blair and Parsons have. And like Blair it would have been possible because the full MLE wasn't spent that summer, only the majority (McDyess with Blair and Diaw with Baynes).

[Chinook]

I don't see why it would have been impossible. It would just be the kind of deal that Blair and Parsons have. And like Blair it would have been possible because the full MLE wasn't spent that summer, only the majority (McDyess with Blair and Diaw with Baynes).

According to the CBA, each contract can have no more than one option (except for rookie-scale contracts). The deals you mentioned (at least Blair's) didn't actually have options; they had non-guaranteed years. As I said, in some ways those are functionally equivalent. But there are ways in which they're not. The biggest thing I can think of is that the player gets a little more freedom in contracts with options. A team has to decide to pick up a player's option before the off-season (except for first-round picks on rookie-scale deals), so the players can't be traded and cut in an option year for salary relief like they can when they just have non-guaranteed contracts. And some contracts with options give the player veto rights (not in any case we're talking about, but in general like with Diaw and Mills).

So if I were a player, I'd rather get option years (even team options) because I'd have a better grasp on what's going to happen to me. The only players who sign for two or three non-guaranteed years are players who have no leverage (like second-round picks). Baynes was not that desperate, so it didn't make sense for him to agree to that.

[Richie]

Bruno, I've noticed Shawn Marion doesn't have a free agent thread. He has an early termination option, and might opt out to sign with a contender.

[Bruno]

Bruno, I've noticed Shawn Marion doesn't have a free agent thread. He has an early termination option, and might opt out to sign with a contender.

Well, I didn't make one because I think he won't opt out but I'll made one if you want.


More globally if someone want to talk about a somewhat relevant draft prospect/free agent/international player/trade target... don't hesitate to ask for a thread about him.

[CGD]

Other than the Spurs, who are the teams with a decent amount of cap-room this off-season? Trying to figure out who will even be a player in the market, with many teams already trying to shed salary.

[Mal]

PG Parker/De Colo/Joseph
SG Green, Manu(3mil)
SF Leonard, SJax (2mil)
PF Duncan, Diaw
C Splitter(11mil),Ozi dude.
+ 1st rounder

Needs - 3pt shooter sg/sf (Red , Korver), PF/C with 3pt range (Millsap ??)

Can Spurs afford resigning Manu, Jax, Tiago and add Korver(way cheaper than Red ) and PF (Smith, Sap, Big Al) ?? Assuming Manu, Jax and Korver would be signed for 7mil at largest ? Pretty stucked team, with a lot of weapons, and players without possiblity of playing heavy minutes.