**Offical How Much $$$ Should the Spurs Pay Tiago Splitter Thread

[024]

I was examining the Spurs cap space and discovered pretty quickly that everything depends on the contracts of Splitter and Ginobili. However, when I tried to assign a value to Splitter, I still can't peg his value.

How much should the Spurs pay Splitter? He averaged a measly 10 pts, 6 rebounds in the regular season and 6 pts, 3 rebounds in the playoffs. But if you adjust his regular season stats to per 40 minutes, he would be projected to average 16.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, 1.3 blocks. A team that might offer Splitter a large contract is a team that hopes Splitter will average close to these numbers when he plays more minutes and takes on a bigger role.

To better understand what Splitter will receive on the open market, I decided to look in the past at other bigs in similar positions for comparison. They are mostly young bigs who played lower minutes but displayed good production during their limited minutes. I then looked at their stats per 40 minutes to standardize the comparison. All stats were taken the year before the contract offer. For example for Gortat, those stats were from the 2008-2009 season. His contract was up to be renewed in 2009. This shows how productive each player was before their contract offer and how each team judged their value.

Marcin Gortat
Stats per 40 minutes: 12.1 points, 14.5 rebounds, and 2.6 blocks
Contract: Signed with the Magic in 2009 for $5.8 million

Omer Asik
Stats per 40 minutes: 8.4 points, 14.4 rebounds, and 2.8 blocks
Contract: Signed with the Rockets in 2012. The Rockets back loaded the contract but Asik is basically earning $8.37 million a year. Put that in a normal contract and Asik probably makes $7.8 million in the first year.

Marc Gasol
Stats per 40 minutes: 16.3 points 10.4 rebounds, and 1.8 blocks
Contract: Signed with the Grizzlies in 2011 for $12.9 million.

Spencer Hawes
Stats per 40 minutes: 15.4 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 2.1 blocks
Contract: Signed with the Sixers in 2012 for $6.5 million. However, Hawes was injured in the middle of the 2011-2012 season so that may be a reason why his contract is lower. Regardless, he looked pretty decent in the playoffs that year.


And for comparison,

Tiago Splitter
Stats per 40 minutes: 16.8 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 1.3 blocks
Contract: ???

Thoughts:
- Looking at the stats, it looks like Splitter's pre contract production most mirrors Marc Gasol and Spencer Hawes. However, all 3 are different players. Marc Gasol has an all around game while Hawes is a jump shooter. The production is similar but Marc Gasol can easily start on a bad team and score in a variety of ways. Can Splitter? Marc Gasol also had great defensive potential, resulting in a DPOY, which Splitter will never touch. Splitter doesn't have a jump shot either. Also, isolating Splitter for post ups is a disastrous move even all much smaller players. So to think that Splitter deserves anything close to Gasol's offer would be ridiculous.

- From the list, Splitter's strengths and role most resembles Asik's. They both get the majority of the offense through rolls to the basket and catching the ball in traffic. Their post games both require a lot of work although I doubt Splitter will ever develop an effective NBA post game due to his mechanics. Asik's hook shot looks way better than Splitter's weak flip shots. Asik is also a better rebounder and rim protector but I would give Splitter the edge in pick and roll defense and moving his feet. Asik has a usable short range jumper that Splitter lacks but Splitter's free throw shooting has been more consistent. Asik also seems tougher and his production doesn't decrease in the playoffs.

- I think a fair offer for Splitter would be a contract similar to Asik's, starting at $7.5-$8 million in the first year with a length of 3-4 years. Even though I think Asik is the better player with more potential, Splitter is flashing more production than Asik when he was first offered his contract. That might warrant the same type of contract.

- Lastly, if Splitter receives a $9-10 million offer, should the Spurs even match? For that money, they could get Paul Millsap, which would just as good of a fit for the Spurs, maybe even better.




Sources:
Salaries: spotrac.com
Statistics: draftexpress.com

[phxspurfan]

It was good (contract wise) for the Spurs that Splitter shat the bed so bad and got benched for the stretch of the playoff run. If he performed like regular season Splitter, Spurs would have almost no shot of retaining him. But give what happened, he could be retained for probably Spencer Hawes type money from the choices above. He's tall but doesn't have heart or toughness.

Millsap would be a better fit. He would be like Oberto. Kind of reliable as a 4th banana on offense, a great rebounder and post defender to put next to Tim, and a guy who can do simple post ups if left with a mismatch (which probably happened a lot next to Al Jefferson). Splitter has none of those qualities.

[spurraider21]

the spurs should do their due diligence by sending out a feeler to dwight and his camp before agreeing to anything with splitter

[Knoxxx]

If we could somehow sign Jack/Mills/Splitter now that's one heck of an offseason!

[TrainOfThought5]

If we could somehow sign Jack/Mills/Splitter now that's one heck of an offseason!

Jack wont come here. mills is below average PG. splitteris soft as charmin and cant take advantage of post mismatches. 2 of the three are gpne. and maybe all three.

[TheGreatYacht]

OP you need to change your last option to "Nothing, go after a better big" and take Millsap out of there because a lot of us like myself don't want that midget. He will be Malik Rose V1, Dejuan Blair V2, and Paul Millsap V3 all over again.

[Brunodf]

Let him walk tbh

[Kidd K]

Damn Gortat is cheap. I wish we had him instead.

Splitter is probably going to get offered 6.5-8m from some idiot team. Using those other guy's salaries as a measuring stick I'd say he's worth about 5-5.5m depending on if you think he won't improve or will improve some.

When you look at those stats, you think he look at Splitte'rs points! Then if you realize most of those are on cuts while playing against 2nd string guys and that it doesn't work in the postseason, it stops being very impressive.

Then you're left with rebounds and blocks. . .and whoops, worst of everyone listed.

[sexinthatsx]

Damn Gortat is cheap. I wish we had him instead.

Splitter is probably going to get offered 6.5-8m from some idiot team. Using those other guy's salaries as a measuring stick I'd say he's worth about 5-5.5m depending on if you think he won't improve or will improve some.

When you look at those stats, you think he look at Splitte'rs points! Then if you realize most of those are on cuts while playing against 2nd string guys and that it doesn't work in the postseason, it stops being very impressive.

Then you're left with rebounds and blocks. . .and whoops, worst of everyone listed.

OP's salary numbers for Gortat was when he was in Orlando when he was playing behind D12. I think his salary is way up since then.

[chazley]

Tiago is an excellent fit on this team because he can play the 5 on offense and the 4 on defense - the opposite of Tim. If you pick up a guy to replace him, it has to be a guy who is a good finisher around the rim and can defend the pick and roll with quick feet/hands. We had the best defensive lineup in the league this season when Tiago started, and Tiago was a huge reason for that because he fit so well next to Tim.

[chazley]

^That being said, he has to get better. There were times in this Miami series, and you can go back and watch the tape, where they would get Tiago in screen/pick n roll situations and Miami would have a guard as the rotator from the weakside under the basket, and they wouldn't even look Tiago's way. No matter how poor he looked, you have to give him the ball there.

[baseline bum]

My guess is Splitter will cost somewhere from $7.5 million starting to $10 million starting, and I'd rather have him than Millsap. The Spurs already have an undersized bench PF in Diaw. Not saying Diaw is a better player than Millsap, but you get your role players for where you have holes needed to be filled, and Splitter's possible departure would leave an enormous hole at the 5. Meanwhile, Millsap wouldn't plug a hole.

[baseline bum]

Tiago is an excellent fit on this team because he can play the 5 on offense and the 4 on defense - the opposite of Tim. If you pick up a guy to replace him, it has to be a guy who is a good finisher around the rim and can defend the pick and roll with quick feet/hands. We had the best defensive lineup in the league this season when Tiago started, and Tiago was a huge reason for that because he fit so well next to Tim.

Quality post. I don't think the grass is greener at all on the other side of the fence, and hope Tiago is back.

[apalisoc_9]

Splitter is useful against 95 percent of the teams in the nba. It's unfortutnate that he sucked on the most important series.

Splitter's numbers should be enough to put him in the 6-9 dollars million range. Maybe 10, but nothing above that.

[Captivus]

I think the Spurs need rebounds, off and def.
Thats the main reason I would get any of the listed here instead of Tiago, he has the fewest rebounds.
Now if the Spurs didnt had TD than thats another story, because he is the big that scores. (In my humble basket knowledge, if you have 2 bigs, 1 of them has to score and the other has to rebound...unless both do both things...doh).
The problem with this contract is that if the Spurs cant get a 27+- years old big, by the time TD retires the Spurs could have problems...
Then again...are we in WIN NOW mode?
Not an easy choice, and I assume the Spurs FO are having problems making a decision also.

But...on topic! I would be comfortable paying him $7, but he might get $9.

[3 Legged Dog]

I would say, "we'll NEVER win a le with ter getting significant minutes." But, if Manu hadn't completely imploded in game 6...... We would have won a le with ter getting significant minutes.

what would I offer ter? Money for bus fare out of San Antonio.

[johnpaulwall21]

He folds under pressure. Plain and simple. We don't need anymore bigs that do that. We need someone with balls to compete on the big stage.
his regular season contribution. We could get 50 wins without him. Playoffs are what counts and he just cant take it up to the next level.
Even if his shot wasn't falling, providing rebounds, defensive pressure, and hustle would be enough, but sadly he doesn't bring anything.

[therealtruth]

Tiago is an excellent fit on this team because he can play the 5 on offense and the 4 on defense - the opposite of Tim. If you pick up a guy to replace him, it has to be a guy who is a good finisher around the rim and can defend the pick and roll with quick feet/hands. We had the best defensive lineup in the league this season when Tiago started, and Tiago was a huge reason for that because he fit so well next to Tim.

^That being said, he has to get better. There were times in this Miami series, and you can go back and watch the tape, where they would get Tiago in screen/pick n roll situations and Miami would have a guard as the rotator from the weakside under the basket, and they wouldn't even look Tiago's way. No matter how poor he looked, you have to give him the ball there.

Good posts. The defensive numbers with Splitter and the starting 5 on the floor were the best in the NBA. They've just got to learn to improve the ball movement. The Spurs averaged 13 APG in the last 2 games.

[BatManu20]

Splitter will be back, unfortunately.

[ElNono]

Couple of things that come to mind... how many teams are out there that can realistically start a bid war for him? Mavs, Cavs, who else?

I also think Tiago has room to grow. Sometimes people gets stuck with the last impression, but he did improve considerably from last season to this one. He definitely has more work to do. The question is what do the Spurs think his ceiling is, and what's the limit they're willing to pay for that.

I think if the Spurs can get him back for around 7-8/season, it would be a good deal. I just suspect some teams might think he's worth much more.

[spurraider21]

I want Tiago back but only at a fair price. if we're expected to pay upwards of 9 million per year, i don't want any part of that. i'm in the camp that wants to wait and check out that 0.1% chance of landing dwight before talking to splitter though

[spurraider21]

Couple of things that come to mind... how many teams are out there that can realistically start a bid war for him? Mavs, Cavs, who else?

I also think Tiago has room to grow. Sometimes people gets stuck with the last impression, but he did improve considerably from last season to this one. He definitely has more work to do. The question is what do the Spurs think his ceiling is, and what's the limit they're willing to pay for that.

I think if the Spurs can get him back for around 7-8/season, it would be a good deal. I just suspect some teams might think he's worth much more.

he is rumored to be atlanta's fall back plan if they fail to land dwight. they would start splitter at center and finally slide Horford to his natural position of power forward

[AFBlue]

MLE...that's the max we should pay limited role players who can't carry a team on either end of the court. Sign-and-trade that sum for a prospect and use the cap space to acquire a legit talent that deserves the $10M/yr he's gonna get.

[J_Paco]

Good posts. The defensive numbers with Splitter and the starting 5 on the floor were the best in the NBA. They've just got to learn to improve the ball movement. The Spurs averaged 13 APG in the last 2 games.

Umm, Splitter was removed from the starting line-up during the last 2 games, actually I believe it was 4 games, when the ball movement was poor. Splitter could garner a $6-9 million a year deal, but he's been exposed in consecutive playoff runs. He really needs to regain his jumpshot (didn't he have one in Europe), get a lot stronger and rebound the ball like a 6'11'' man and not a pansy (3.1 rpg in the playoffs). I'm afraid he's nothing more than a system who looked good being spoon feed by Parker and Ginobili (cough*DeJaun Blair*cough).

[024]

OP you need to change your last option to "Nothing, go after a better big" and take Millsap out of there because a lot of us like myself don't want that midget. He will be Malik Rose V1, Dejuan Blair V2, and Paul Millsap V3 all over again.

Eh the choices are fine. That choice doesn't imply you want Millsap specifically, just another big. As for whether Millsap is a good fit for the Spurs, that might be a discussion for another thread. However, I would say I would rather have a small player that plays big rather than a big player that plays small.

Millsap is a better rebounder who can score in more ways that Splitter can ever hope to. He's also capable of guarding both PFs and slower SFs. He's nothing like Diaw or Blair. He plays controlled compared to Blair and is always active compared to Diaw. He goes strong to the rim and doesn't shy away from contact.