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  1. #476
    Believe. Spur Bank's Avatar
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    Advanced stats suffer from being stats, meaning they follow the basic assumption of being IID (Individual and Independently Distributed). They assume a 45-percent three-point shooter is 45-percent likely to make any given three. But that's not true. There are tons of variables that haven't been accounted for. Stats can only tell you what has already happened. They are NOT designed to predict the future. That's why running an organization using stats will fail if there are no old-school penople in the brain trust.
    Great points on the "IID" thing.
    IID is a problem on Internet message boards, but it's not a problem in NBA offices. There's zero chance any NBA-employed statistician is applying a blanket one-size-fits-all 3P% in his/her analysis.

    That's not only not advanced, it's barely high school level stats. The point of having advanced stats is that they DON'T make boneheaded mistakes like the example you gave.
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  2. #477
    Believe. Spur Bank's Avatar
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    Regarding Hollins, this seems like a straightforward situation. He was a good relationship and personality coach, and a not good matchup/X's and O's coach. I don't think anyone in this thread thinks otherwise... people are arguing two different things, it just comes down to what side you believe is more important.

    Edit: you can quibble about whether Hollins was really a good people person or not, but eh, whatever.
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  3. #478
    Veteran ace3g's Avatar
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    Jabari Young @jabari_young
    So I can confirm there was a scout from the #Knicks at the #Spurs game last night...he may have been scouting Minny, but if not....


    Jabari Young @jabari_young
    #Knicks play Minny on 2/12...kinda early to be scouting them, in San Antonio...just saying


    --

    Moments later he deletes those tweets. and retweets:

    Jabari Young @jabari_young
    So I can confirm there was a scout from the #Knicks at the #Spurs game last night...might of been there to scout Minny tho...or not...






    Last edited by ace3g; 01-13-2014 at 11:57 AM.
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  4. #479
    Don't stop believin' Dex's Avatar
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    Jabari Young @jabari_young
    might of
    ಠ_ಠ
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  5. #480
    Veteran ThaBigFundamental21's Avatar
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    Bring on J.R. Smith for Danny Green and filler.
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  6. #481
    Watching the collapse benefactor's Avatar
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    You all do know that it's been 8 years since the Barry/Smith thing almost happened, right? And what exactly has Smith done to prove he's any less of a headcase?

    Not only is he still a headcase...he's a well paid headcase that will be on the books until the end of 2015/16. He also has a 15% trade kicker.

    Even if no picks were included, the Spurs would not trade Green or even just expirings for Smith. No one is touching a player like him on that contract until next seasons deadline at the earliest.
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  7. #482
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    Bring on J.R. Smith for Danny Green and filler.
    We'd lose a series to GS, then. Green was the only thing that even slowed Curry somewhat. Playing against Parker/Manu/Beli/JR, he'd go WILD.
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  8. #483
    Damn You Commies T Park's Avatar
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    People seem to forget how well defensively Green is against the Oklahoma City's and the Golden States
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  9. #484
    🏆🏆🏆🏆🏆 ElNono's Avatar
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    You all do know that it's been 8 years since the Barry/Smith thing almost happened, right? And what exactly has Smith done to prove he's any less of a headcase?

    Not only is he still a headcase...he's a well paid headcase that will be on the books until the end of 2015/16. He also has a 15% trade kicker.

    Even if no picks were included, the Spurs would not trade Green or even just expirings for Smith. No one is touching a player like him on that contract until next seasons deadline at the earliest.
    Maybe we're just after Bargnani...

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  10. #485
    #21 timtonymanu's Avatar
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    When opposing PGs are torching us, we won't have Danny Green to count on. And Leonard will have to do it instead leaving the 3 guy open.
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  11. #486
    #21 timtonymanu's Avatar
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    Looking at the Knicks roster, the only player I want is Tyson Chandler but he's out of the question.

    I definitely don't want that headcase Smith. He's been on meltdown mode lately. The Spurs don't need that distraction in their locker room again.
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  12. #487
    I may or may not care. monkeypunk's Avatar
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    If the NY package included Shumpert with Smith, would you guys bite?

    Otherwise, I'd say no to Smith...
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  13. #488
    Veteran exstatic's Avatar
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    I would seriously LOL if the NYK exiled JR Smith to Minny.
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  14. #489
    Veteran Sean Cagney's Avatar
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    If the NY package included Shumpert with Smith, would you guys bite?

    Otherwise, I'd say no to Smith...
    Pop would turn SHUMP into a player! I know a Knicks fan at work and he said that would be a match made in heaven and he doesn't want it because Shumpert can play some D and shoot the ball from outside. That would be a very good guy to pick up at his age.
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  15. #490
    Veteran r0drig0lac's Avatar
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    Bonner for Lebron straight up. Otherwise, this team isn't making any (meaningful) trades. Same story, different year.
    lol, this
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  16. #491
    Hello Moto elemento's Avatar
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    I just can't believe some Spurs fans really wanna trade Danny Green for Jr Smith
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  17. #492
    Big Body look_at_g_shred's Avatar
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    I just can't believe some Spurs fans really wanna trade Danny Green for Jr Smith
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  18. #493
    Veteran jermaine's Avatar
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    Smith just isn't motivated! People forget Smith was guarding opposing teams best man also when the Knicks was winning an Shumpurt was hurt! Smith by creating his own shot would open oup sooooo much. All that standing an waitibg for Tony to kick it to you that grewn does. He sucks! Can dribble to save his life or creates a shot. Green aint even near a motivated Smith's level. How quickly some of you dump s forget!
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  19. #494
    Machacarredes Chinook's Avatar
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    IID is a problem on Internet message boards, but it's not a problem in NBA offices. There's zero chance any NBA-employed statistician is applying a blanket one-size-fits-all 3P% in his/her analysis.

    That's not only not advanced, it's barely high school level stats. The point of having advanced stats is that they DON'T make boneheaded mistakes like the example you gave.
    That is the entire premise of moneyball. It assumes that players aren't bigger than they're stats. PER and DRtg are advanced, but that doesn't protect them from IID at all. PER is supposed to be a controlled stat that can be used across teams, but it's entirely based on how good a player's team is. DRtg for individuals is just team DRtg plus steals, rebounds and blocks. It says nothing about how well an individual guards his man.
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  20. #495
    Veteran Proxy's Avatar
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    People seem to forget how well defensively Green is against the Oklahoma City's and the Golden States
    The Miamis too
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  21. #496
    Veteran weebo's Avatar
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    JR Smith . You guys can't be serious.
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  22. #497
    #ThankYouTD smaka's Avatar
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    I can't think of a single rational reason why the Spurs would want this overrated chucker JR Smith. And even Shumpert. He is a typical New-York-overrated type of a player. Just remember Steve Novak, Landy Fields.. Where are they at now, huh?
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  23. #498
    Veteran RD2191's Avatar
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    JR Smith is comedic gold, wouldn't mind watching Pop go WWE on his ass with a chair to the back.
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  24. #499
    Chopper Ed Helicopter Jones's Avatar
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    JR Smith would not improve the Spurs. I didn't like the idea a couple of years ago when the Spurs were considering him, and I don't like it now.

    If SJax can work his way out of favor with Pop in such short order, imagine what it will be like for JR Smith. That will be a lot to spend just to make sure one of the seats doesn't blow away during the ballgames.
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  25. #500
    Gig em ajballer4's Avatar
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    The only player IMO it could possibly be would be Shump especially since he killed us a couple weeks ago
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