The Spurs will be playing their 4th game in 6 days by the time they travel to OKC for a nationally televised game on Thursday night against the Thunder. Thursday's game will be the second game of a back-to-back, on the road against their most likely Western Conference Finals opponent.
With Golden State having to travel to San Antonio the day after an emotional 122-120 overtime victory over Dallas, I would suspect that their shooters legs will be a little heavy, and that the Warriors will be susceptible to a letdown. We'll probably see Steph Curry and company shoot very well to start the game and then cool off as the exhaustion factor starts to set in.
If I'm Pop, I'm going to play my full roster tonight and treat it like a playoff game. Golden State is trying to hold off Memphis for the 6 seed, but I believe tonight's game is the Spurs to win, and so I'm going to try to dismantle the Warriors in similar fashion to the previous 18 games.
Thursday night's game is a different story. On Thursday the Spurs will potentially be the team with tired legs against an OKC team that will have had 3 days to rest and prepare. Having lost 7 of our last 9 against OKC, and both meetings this season, I know the Spurs would love to get a statement win. Truth is, I don't know how important that is. There's not a lot to gain from a win on Thursday. If the Spurs win tonight they'll have a 4 game lead on OKC with 7 to play. The Spurs won't relinquish the top seed in that situation, regardless of the outcome tomorrow. Would a win in OKC be a nice confidence booster? Maybe, but this Spurs team is so professional in their approach that I don't think the outcome will impact them much either way once the real season starts in a few short weeks.
If I'm Pop, I'm sitting Parker, Leonard, Duncan and Ginobili tomorrow night. I might not even put them on the plane. Miami Heat regular season road game Part II. If I'm the FO I'll have my $250,000 penalty check ready to stick in the mail. Why risk injury when your team is tired from a busy week's schedule? Pop should just stay in San Antonio, too, and let the assistants work that game. I wonder how much that would increase their fine?
The flip side of that argument is that this team has been playing so well lately that the Spurs should just test that mettle against the other top team in the West. A second game of a back-to-back this late in the season against your well-rested top compe ion will give the team a chance to operate under game 6 or 7 gut-check conditions. If the Spurs beat the Warriors by double-digits and then can fly to OKC and do the same thing, it sends a message to the Thunder and the rest of the league that this Spurs team, and their current run of invulnerability or no fluke and that the rest of the league doesn't stand a chance in the post season.
Of course, I think that last strategy is too overt for Pop...not CIA enough, and ultimately not the smart move. As it is, I think Pop shudders a bit about the attention the current winning streak is giving to his team. My guess is that he'll rest at least 2 of the big 3 tomorrow, and hopefully Leonard. Leonard is this team's X-Factor during this winning streak. His game has evolved as of late, and if I'm trying to be CIA with the Thunder, and not let the Thunder practice against the Spurs' complete capabilities, and the impact Kawhi is having on this team, I'm certainly sitting him tomorrow night. My predication is that OKC will get challenged by our reserves but ultimately will win by 15. After the game the Thunder players will grumble, and won't know how to feel about themselves.
A 19 game winning streak is pretty darn good. Seeing the Spurs play zone D for 38 minutes will be stupendous. Watching Cory Joseph dribble the ball 22,000 times will be stupendulous. Watching Austin Daye and Jeff Ayres each play 45 minutes tomorrow night will be stupendulicious. Denying ESPN the opportunity to break the game down into all the reasons the Thunder are better than the streaking Spurs will be stupenduliciousexpialidocious. I can't wait.