Pop can improve the defense by limiting the amount of time multiple poor defenders are on the floor together. I think the Spurs can survive defensively if either Duncan is the big defender on the PnR or Manu/Beli/Mills is the perimeter defender. But having both of those things for long stretches creates a major weakness even Brooks is smart enough to see. Splitter needs to play more with the second unit, meaning Duncan shouldn't play as much with it. I think Pop should consider reversing Tim's and Tiago's sub patterns. I mean, it's one thing if Duncan is destroying OKC offensively. But if he's not, Splitter is a better option to hide the bench's defensive deficiencies.
I don't see rotations changing much after a win. That is generally Pop's modus operandi. I do think there are areas where he'll ask for more attention to detail and extra effort.
About Tim with the 2nd unit, I think Diaw getting poked in the eye and Timmy having a great 1st quarter were contributors to that. In general, I think Diaw or even Tiago will get more of those minutes.
excelling write-up dude. would love to compare this with Barkley's notes tbh
All right, guys, let’s knock out the numbers for Game Two:
Durant Game 2 Makes Misses Fouls Turnover PPP Series Makes Misses Fouls Turnover PPP Leonard 3 4 1 0 0.857143 Leonard 10 8 1 1 1.15 Green 2 1 1 0 1.333333 Green 2 4 1 1 0.571429 Parker 0 1 0 1 0 Belinelli 0 1 0 0 0 Duncan 0 0 1 0 2 Duncan 1 0 2 0 2.5 Splitter 1 1 0 0 1 Splitter 1 2 1 1 0.8 Diaw 0 0 1 0 0 Ginobili 2 3 1 2 0.857143 Ginobili 0 3 0 1 1 Baynes 0 0 0 2 0 Total 6 10 2 2 0.75 Parker 0 1 0 1 0 Diaw 0 0 1 0 0 Total 16 19 7 8 0.914894
I liked Leonard’s defense on Durant even better than his PPP allowed suggests. He needs to stop wasting fouls on other players, though. I do think it’s interesting that KD seems to be most unfazed about playing Kawhi. Manu’s numbers are helped by him guarding two half-court Durant heaves to end quarters.
Westbrook 7 Game 2 Makes Misses Fouls Turnover PPP Series Makes Misses Fouls Turnover PPP Leonard 0 0 1 0 0 Leonard 1 1 1 1 0.666667 Green 3 7 0 0 0.7 Green 5 9 1 2 0.764706 Parker 0 5 0 0 0 Parker 2 7 1 1 0.636364 Belinelli 0 1 0 0 0 Duncan 2 1 2 0 1.75 Mills 0 2 0 0 0 Splitter 1 2 0 1 0.25 Duncan 0 1 0 0 0 Diaw 1 2 0 0 0.666667 Splitter 0 0 0 1 0 Ginobili 4 1 1 2 1.142857 Diaw 1 1 0 0 1 Baynes 0 1 0 0 0 Ginobili 3 0 1(0) 2 1.2 Mills 0 2 0 0 0 Belinelli 0 1 0 0 0 Total 7 17 0 3 0.555556 Total 16 27 6 7 0.714286
Russ was awful no matter who was on him (except Manu), but I don’t want to read that Parker can’t defend him anymore. Tony was awesome keeping Westbrook away from the basket. If the Spurs can force Westbrook to shoot jumpers, OKC is completely at the mercy of Russ’ streakiness. Oh, and Reggie Miller had a horrible take about allowing Westbrook to drive to contest jumpers, but that’s not surprising. That man’s inability to be correct is part of the fundamental fabric of the Universe.
Jackson had a strong game when he could avoid Splitter. He needs to play more if the Thunder want to have any chance to winning. I still don’t see that being enough, because Jackson hasn’t been able to figure out Green all year, and Danny hasn’t been needed on contain Westbrook. Foul trouble could change things, though.
Jackson Game 2 Makes Misses Fouls Turnover PPP Series Makes Misses Fouls Turnover PPP Green 1 1 0 2 0.5 Green 1 3 0 2 0.333333 Parker 1 0 0 0 2 Parker 1 1 0 0 1 Belinelli 1 0 0 0 2 Belinelli 3 0 0 0 2.333333 Splitter 0 2 0 0 0 Mills 0 0 1 1 0 Ginobili 1 0 0 0 2 Duncan 1 1 0 0 1 Total 4 3 0 2 0.888889 Diaw 1 0 0 0 2 Ginobili 3 1 0 0 1.5 Splitter 0 2 0 0 0 Total 10 8 1 3 1
ButlerMakes Misses Fouls Turnovers PPP Leonard 0 0 0 1 0 Green 0 2 0 1 0 Parker 1 0 0 0 2 Diaw 3 2 0 1 1.166667 Total 4 4 0 3 0.818182
I decided to cover Butler this game, since Fisher was ineffective. The only thing to take away is that Diaw is having a hard time trying to check Butler. Not enough that the Spurs should really be concerned. Not yet, but Boris is going to have to step it up. Caron shouldn’t be a hard assignment.
Takeaways:
-Duncan had a better game last night. He didn’t silence the criticism, like some posters seem to think, but he was no longer a minus on that end. His hedges were still half-hearted, but he didn’t sink nearly as far. His best PnR defense came at the 8:50 mark of the second quarter, where he hedge so hard in almost doubled, driving Westbrook all the way to the far wing. It ended up being a Butler (I think) score, but I loved Tim’s effort there. The reality is that Tim is going to have to make that commitment more often. OKC for some reason decided to iso more this game, which meant that Duncan was near the basket when the Thunder attacked. Tim knew what to do then, and guarded the rim very well.
-I can’t stress enough how awesome Splitter’s team defense is. It’s been awesome all post-season, but without him having to worry about an elite offensive big to check, he’s taken it to a new level. At the 9:30 mark of the second-quarter, Tiago and Green absolutely hounded Jackson, chasing him around the perimeter in sort of a moving double. It was amazing to watch. Splitter also protected the rim extremely well. For any Spurs fans who underrate the loss of Ibaka, losing Splitter would nearly as devastating.
-When so many Thunder players shoot so badly, it’s hard to appropriately give credit to individual defensive players. Green was still awesome in the safety role. Ginobili did a fine job defending Durant in Kawhi’s stead. I just want to give a shout out to Mills and Beli (and especially Parker, but I already talked about them). They both brought much better efforts on D last night, at least Beli did outside garbage time. That gave OKC’s stars no refuge. As I said after Game One, if Durant and Westbrook can’t score on the others, they have absolutely no chance of winning this series, , even a game.
-I charted the three-point shooting as I did for Game One. I don’t think I am going to post the numbers, though, since the post is getting long already. The Spurs pretty much closed out hard on every three with three exceptions (two soft and one no-close). OKC only made one of those hard-closes, a Westbrook three after Green helped Leonard and Duncan after botch PnR defense at the start of the game.
Instead, I’ll use its space to cover what I consider to be the most interesting aspect of Game Two.
Durant on Defense
DurantPost Screens Drives Pull-ups Break Threes Amount 2 4 3 1 2 5 PPP 1 1.5 1.33 0 1 3
There’s no real way to sugarcoat this: Durant had an abysmal defensive game. As much as we rag on Beli for not being able to stop anyone, I’m not sure he could ever do this poor of a job. The Spurs attacked Durant in every way possible, and despite the headlines KD made about him stepping up on that end, he completely folded. What’s most sad is that Durant wasn’t even put in bad match-ups very often. The only big Durant guarded was Diaw, and Boris missed two free throws in two post-up attempts.
Durant was absolutely powerless to stop Parker’s penetration, not even being able to use his length to obstruct. I consider that sort of inexcusable, but I understand people wanting to give KD a break for that. The thing is, calling Parker and Diaw understandable mismatches only explains 5/16 possession, and 7/29 points Durant gave up. The rest came from players at his own position, Leonard and Ginobili and especially Green. It was kind of disturbing to see any player get picked on so much, actually. I know it was the team’s plan to make Durant work at both ends, but I doubt they’d ever imagine that KD would give up twice as many points as he scored.
All in all, it was a game both teams are best to put behind them. While the Spurs should definitely keep using last night’s gameplan, they have to expect Durant and Westbrook to shoot better. Also, the Spurs got lucky with whistles during the last 36 minutes. I expect to see more quarters like last night’s first as the series shifts to OKC. The others’ defense on OKC’s Big Two is very encouraging. It’s very possible that the team is going to have to depend on that continuing, as Kawhi and Danny may well be in extended foul trouble in subsequent games.
Solid writeup. Thanks
Thanks
Thanks Chin.
KD's being asked to do a lot but his lapses on Green were Harden-esque. As anticipated, the big lineup for OKC just doesn't work. It clogs the paint and allows Tim/Tiago an easier avenue to cut off drives and help at the rim.
If Leonard picks up an early foul, then I'd want to see Pop switch Danny onto Durant in the 1st and have Leonard on their 3rd wing. Just from the eye test alone, I thought Green/Manu have done a solid job when matched with KD and I guess the numbers reflect that for the most part.
That was actually a very interesting time. When I first watched the game, I thought Green had picked up his second foul. In reality, Duncan got called for hitting Durant, which is why he drew the tech in the first place. So Danny was never in foul trouble. I don't know if Pop knew this, however, and just decided that it was time for Manu to come in or if he was also confused. Either way, you're right. After the Spurs survived that stretch, I wasn't worried about the outcome of that game.Thanks
Boris is struggling with Caron which is surprising seeing that he did a pretty admirable job on Lebron.
Tony is an underrated defender. He's made a lot of progress in the last few years.
Thanks chinook. THis is the stuff that makes spurstalk incredible at times. Interesting to see how many adjustments okc can realistically make in the given timespan to get their studs better looks since the isoball really isn't working. Also I might just be speaking for myself but I don't think a longer post is a worse post as long as the content is good. Don't feel bad to post the three point close out figures
These numbers suggest he was the best defender in Game 2. So, "Look at the charts. Green was pretty good but not the best defender for the Spurs" like after Game 1 with Leonard? Danny's best game and the stats say he maybe wasn't the best.
The other guy was in foul trouble? played less? Well...that's the problem with the stats, tell one side of the story.
Don't get me wrong I loved Danny's Game 2, I'm just saying these stats -like others- are not entirely reliable.
Off topic. I don't know if you're being sarcastic when you say the media loves Leonard (too much), but -if it's true- I can't see what is wrong with that.
The media certainly doesn't have a love affair with Spurs players or this kid. McMullen like others can't spell his name, they talk about him only/most in playoffs, they're overlooking Spurs players during the regular season all seasons, even with the best all time PF and the #1 NBA team record.
The kid isn't on TMZ for he impregnated a hoe, for send to another man pics of his , or his teammates girl like the Pacers SF star.
So, a young Spurs player can get some attention media for play well, or for be a freak/half robot/no-emotion/crazy hands guy, or for whatever good and decent reason? Please, just let them...
You shouldn't criticize my use of stats if you misunderstand them. Kawhi didn't have the lowest PPP of anyone on the team. He didn't even have the lowest PPP on Durant. So if you're going to disregard sample size, do it right.
I claimed Green was the best defender in Game One because of the sheer number of players he guarded and for how well he did despite being the primary defender on so many attacks. Leonard was better in Game One than my numbers suggested (I said as much), but he wasn't very good. He left Durant open behind the three-point line inexplicably on several occasions. And , it's not like Green doesn't still have the superior defensive numbers against Durant than Leonard does.
Now does that mean that I disagree with you that stats aren't the end-all, be-all? Of course not. There are lots of qualitative things that go into defense besides what shows up in numbers. That doesn't make the numbers deceptive nor does it invalidate a statistical analysis.
As for your OT: I'm not being sarcastic about the media paying too much attention to Leonard. They overrate the out of him. I like Kawhi a lot. I'm glad he's on the team, and I hope he's around for years. But he's overrated--still. They put out articles about how he's the real MVP of the team, citing that stupid 9-8 stat. You had people pump up his Game One when it was really mediocre on both sides of the ball. People can't seem to root for teams unless they have stars to cling to, so the media creates them to write their stories around. That's what happened to Paul George and Damien Lillard. The difference is Kawhi's smarter than George and is going to stay humble for longer. But it will come back to bite the team eventually.
I didn't say "on the team" or "on Durant" or all series, I said over Danny in Game 2.
About the media creating heroes and villains, I don't have problem with that while the supposed "heroe" is a Spurs player.
I don't even know what to say. My OP's tl;dr said Leonard wasn't the best defender on the team in Game One. I don't even know what you're attacking at this point.
As for your second point, I am fine with the media like Spurs players. I don't like the media to claim certain Spurs are stars when they're not and to overrate they're relative impact.
Chin, what is the 9-8 stat you are referring to?
The record when Kawhi was out.
Great write-ups. Keep them coming Chinook.
I'm a numbers guy, and appreciate analysis like this one. What's important to remember though is that it needs to be kept in perspective.
There's a whole lot more going on that just the simple focus on a certain area (which is what the numbers Chinook compile here are trying to convey). There are things like lineup combinations (which involve more esoteric things such as "chemistry"), offensive contributions, specific round-to-round and game-to-game matchup opportunities, ability to execute, familiarity with the system (the famed corporate knowledge), even the "hot-hand", etc that are also taken into account when making decisions.
I'm pointing this out because it's not uncommon to bring up certain statistical analysis and start hearing "well, why doesn't player X plays more minutes?". Well, because there's many areas that weigh in those decisions, and it just isn't that simple. You don't have to look too far to find a team that relied extensively on cold, hard numbers and underachieved (hi Rockets). Numbers are one extremely useful tool, as long as you understand they only tell you part of the story.
All that said, keep em coming. They're certainly a good read, and especially against an opponent as talented as OKC.
Indeed. I'm definitely not claiming that numbers (especially MY numbers) show inarguable truth. They don't. They're just numbers. They only indicate what happened under the confines I specify. They don't show anything about why something happened, or even something's repeatability (probably the biggest misuse of stats).
So I'm throwing out these numbers with some of my subjective interpretation hoping other people bring their own interpretations so we can all have a discussion. Ideally, other people bring different bases of knowledge (play counts, line-up combos or especially a deeper familiarity with basketball than I have). That way, among us we can get a more-complete understanding of what happened.
This thread is supposed to be my contribution to the discussion, not my attempt to control it.
Damn I'm so proud of Danny.
Manu sux
Chinook do you see any noticeable differences between a potential miami matchup this year compared to how they fared last season?
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