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By definition, polls that are voluntary are not accurate.
Historically, Exit polls are accurate within 2%
The deviation is the difference in percent between the first exit polls and the vote.
All the following states final results agreed with the exit polls
THEY ALL HAD PAPER TRAILS.
State...% voting deviation from exit polls
+2B means the change was + 2 for Bush
AZ 0
LA +2B
MI 0
IA +1B
ME 0 <no BBV
NV 0 < paper trail
MO -1B
IL 0 paper ballot
.................................................. ............
Now look at the states that were in play where there was NO paper trail. They ALL had Bush doing MUCH better than the Exit polls indicated.
They were ALL WAY OUTSIDE the 2% MoE.
NONE OF THESE STATES HAVE PAPER TRAILS
WI +4B
PA +5B
OH +6B
FL +7B
MN +7B
NH +15B
NC +9B
CO +4B
NM +3B
ALL RESULTS WERE SKEWED TO BUSH!
IS THAT JUST A COINCIDENCE? HOW COME THE SHARP DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE BBV PAPER TRAIL AND NON-PAPER TRAIL STATES?
Any deviations above 5% have a probability of 0 to 1%.
Deviation = 4% has a probability of 2%.
Deviation = 3% has a probability of 4%
The JOINT COMBINED probability is VIRTUALLY ZERO that these were just random deviations!
THIS HAS THE MAKINGS OF A CLEAR CIR STANTIAL CASE THAT THIS WAS A MASSIVELY TAINTED ELECTION.
By definition, polls that are voluntary are not accurate.
Do the exit polls have paper trails?
Did you even bother to read the analysis? These pro-bush deviations are statistically impossible unless some sort of fraud occured. What we have here is cir stantial evidence that in a court of law can be used to garner a conviction.
I think you mean improbable.statistically impossible
But do carry on.
Thanks, your right Sperminator, I will carry on...
Look at this excel file:
http://www.geocities.com/flfraud04/flVoting.xls
I got the number directly off the FL elections website:
http://enight.dos.state.fl.us /
First, look at the numbers in red font / yellow background. For example, Palm Beach county. 542,835 votes for president were casted, but only 452,061 voters turned out, a difference of 90,774. Does this mean that there are 90 thousand EXTRA votes?
Secondly, look at the numbers in green font. For example, Escambia county. 142,990 votes for president were casted, but 161,183 voters turned out. So, 18,193 people did not vote for president? Thats a high number. Thats 11%.[QUOTE]
Exit polls conducted by partisan pollsters are more accurate than the official election process? Dan I just did a survey. My results say Bush won 99% to 1%. Therefore, I have evidence the national election was rigged for Kerry. So now your argument is mute. Fight bull with bull .
Where is your sta ical analysis then? Are you telling me that if Kerry had won under the same scrupilous cir stances that W supporters would just shut up and take it?
I asked people all over the place who they voted for . 99% wanted Bush as president. 1% wanted Kerry. Therefore, the national elections are rigged for Kerry since they didn't match my own.
The election was not that close. Don't think if it were even a remote possibility for Kerry to have won, you would have heard something by now? Don't you think Kerry would have known this before he threw in the towel.
Acceptance in the last step, denial is the first.
George Bush's 8 Million New Votes Found – STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
By Alastair Thompson - Co-Editor http://scoop.co.nz
In an earlier thread I discussed the issue of Where Did * Suddenly Get 8 Million New Voters.... To recap this is important because:
"If you think about it , had the Bush Cheney campaign really signed up 8 million odd new republican voters... wouldn't they have been telling us about it for the past six months. Yelling it on the front page of every newspaper. Somewhere in the election statistics is the answer to a simple question. Where were Bush's 8 million new voters..-. find them and you find where this election was stolen.
WHAT I DID
Noticing that nobody was really taking a lot of notice of my ramblings I decided to take a closer look. The raw data is below and I will post an excel spreadsheet of this online soon so people can fill in the gaps (this is really a bit of a work in progress as is the DU tradition). I picked and chose my states on the basis of where I thought it likely that the votes came from and stopped when I got to 90% of the vote difference this only took 31 states.
FINDINGS
1. Bush did not pick up any vote at all on the West Coast.. in fact he lost ground in both Washington and California. This is interesting as this is arguably where the BBV machine manufacturers have been receiving the most heat. However it could reflect a relative lack of interest in so-called "moral issues" out west.
2. The five states I picked on the basis that they are known to have lots of voting machines (and particularly Diebold machines) had a significantly higher percentage increase in bush voters than average… 25% compared to 17% nationally.
3. Likewise the swing states also had a higher average rate of new bush voters at 21%. This however might be expected as they also had much more active campaigns.
4. Among the 31 states I examined were three big democratic states NY, NJ and IL. I selected them on a hunch because a) they are unlikely to be suspected of being used in a vote rigging exercise, but b) necessary to include if you want to achieve a large across the board popular vote gain that does not look too su ious. These three states averaged a 21% vote gains for Bush and NJ and NY achieved around 25%. However between them they contributed 1.7 million new bush votes, or nearly 20% of Bush's total vote gain.
5. The remainder of my selection of states is broadly defined as "red states", they averaged 20% in terms of voting gain for bush. Notably both Kansas and Utah achieved % gains for bush below the national average. I am guessing here but I would have thought both states were "moral issue" based voter heavy.
DISTRIBUTION OF THE VOTES
6. In sheer numeric terms Bush gained far and away the most votes in Texas and Florida, 900k and 700k respectively.
7. 60% of all Bushes new votes, 5.2 million votes, were gained in just 11 states…FL, TX. NY, OH, PA, GA, MI, NJ, TN, NC, IL
8. Add in another 8 states and you get to 82% of all bush's new votes or 7.1 million… the states are WI MN IND AL OK KY AZ LOU & MD
9. Put another way 7.1 million votes or 82% of bushes gain was achieved in states totalling 65% of the popular vote. Within these states he achieved an average vote gain of an astonishing 23%.
10. 92% of the vote gain is found in the 31 states I selected data for.
11. The rate of bush vote growth in the remaining 20 states was just 5% on average.
12. In percentage terms Florida and Georgia (both heavily Diebold equipment using states) were the standouts with 32% gains respectively.
13. In percentage terms five other states showed more than 25% growth in the bush vote, in ascending order they were Arizona, New Jersey, New Mexico, Oklahoma and Tennessee. Of these AZ, NM and OK both recently upgraded their machines to new tech machines. NJ and TN also both use computerised voting machines, albeit older models.
CLICK HERE TO SEE WHICH MACHINES ARE USED WHERE – VerifiedVoting.Org\'s Verifier
RAW DATA FOLLOWS
SOURCES
2000 Results Via CNN
2004 Results Via C-Span
2004 --|-- 2000 --|-- difference --|-- % --|-- increase --|--
GWB'S TOTAL VOTE INCREASE
National --|-- 59117523 --|-- 50456169 --|-- 8661354 --|-- 0.171660952 --|--
WHERE THE NEW VOTES CAME FROM BROKEN DOWN
Diebold & ES&S States (where the equipment is – i.e. because you can)
GA --|-- 1867988 --|-- 1416085 --|-- 451903 --|-- 0.31912138 --|--
OK --|-- 959655 --|-- 744335 --|-- 215320 --|-- 0.289278349 --|--
AZ --|-- 905379 --|-- 715112 --|-- 190267 --|-- 0.266066015 --|--
MD --|-- 936505 --|-- 770911 --|-- 165594 --|-- 0.214803006 --|--
TX --|-- 4495797 --|-- 3796850 --|-- 698947 --|-- 0.184086019 --|--
SUBTOTAL --|-- 1722031 --|-- 0.254670954 --|--
Big Democratic States (where no one will look – and where you can pad the popular vote)
NJ --|-- 1587494 --|-- 1253791 --|-- 333703 --|-- 0.266155204 --|--
NY --|-- 2780749 --|-- 2235776 --|-- 544973 --|-- 0.243751163 --|--
IL --|-- 2313415 --|-- 2019256 --|-- 294159 --|-- 0.145676923 --|--
SUBTOTAL --|-- 1172835 --|-- 0.218527763 --|--
Swing States (logical place… where campaign was & where you want to win)
FL --|-- 3838376 --|-- 2909176 --|-- 929200 --|-- 0.319403157 --|--
NM --|-- 364569 --|-- 286417 --|-- 78152 --|-- 0.272860899 --|--
OH --|-- 2796147 --|-- 2294167 --|-- 501980 --|-- 0.218807088 --|--
PA --|-- 2748900 --|-- 2264309 --|-- 484591 --|-- 0.214012752 --|--
MN --|-- 1345168 --|-- 1110290 --|-- 234878 --|-- 0.211546533 --|--
NH --|-- 330848 --|-- 273135 --|-- 57713 --|-- 0.211298442 --|--
WI --|-- 1477122 --|-- 1235035 --|-- 242087 --|-- 0.196016307 --|--
MI --|-- 2306259 --|-- 1947100 --|-- 359159 --|-- 0.184458425 --|--
IO --|-- 745734 --|-- 634225 --|-- 111509 --|-- 0.175819307 --|--
CO --|-- 1017322 --|-- 884047 --|-- 133275 --|-- 0.150755559 --|--
SUBTOTAL --|-- 3132544 --|-- 0.215497847 --|--
(not really a swing state.. but with odd exit poll and VP candidate )
NC --|-- 1919903 --|-- 1607238 --|-- 312665 --|-- 0.194535595 --|--
CONTROVERSIAL BBV STATES (remarkable because of an absence of new bush votes – too risky)
(BevHarris's)WA --|-- 921543 --|-- 1101621 --|-- -180078 --|-- -0.163466383 --|--
(KevinS ey's)CA --|-- 4403495 --|-- 4437557 --|-- -34062 --|-- -0.007675845 --|--
SUBTOTAL --|-- -214140 --|-- -0.085571114 --|--
RED STATES (Loosely where you might expect to find more fundamentalist christians and moral issues based voters.)
TN --|-- 1381852 --|-- 1056480 --|-- 325372 --|-- 0.307977434 --|--
AL --|-- 1174278 --|-- 943799 --|-- 230479 --|-- 0.24420348 --|--
KY --|-- 1064504 --|-- 869946 --|-- 194558 --|-- 0.223643766 --|--
SD --|-- 232545 --|-- 190515 --|-- 42030 --|-- 0.22061255 --|--
AK --|-- 566676 --|-- 472120 --|-- 94556 --|-- 0.20027959 --|--
MISS --|-- 657920 --|-- 549426 --|-- 108494 --|-- 0.197467903 --|--
LOU --|-- 1101710 --|-- 924670 --|-- 177040 --|-- 0.1914629 --|--
NB --|-- 486025 --|-- 408719 --|-- 77306 --|-- 0.189142173 --|--
UTH --|-- 608851 --|-- 512168 --|-- 96683 --|-- 0.188772044 --|--
IND --|-- 1474475 --|-- 1242372 --|-- 232103 --|-- 0.186822465 --|--
KS --|-- 711083 --|-- 616829 --|-- 94254 --|-- 0.1528041 --|--
WY --|-- 167129 --|-- 147674 --|-- 19455 --|-- 0.131742893 --|--
SUBTOTAL --|-- 1692330 --|-- 0.162328753 --|--
NEW --|-- VOTES --|-- FOUND --|-- 7818265 --|--
REMAINDER --|-- 843089 --|--
RANKING LIST OF NEW VOTE STATES… BY TOTAL VOTES GAINED
STATE --|-- 2004 --|-- 2000 --|-- NEW VOTES --|-- % --|-- Incr --|-- ulative --|-- Gain --|--
FL --|-- 3838376 --|-- 2909176 --|-- 929200 --|-- 31.9% --|-- 929200 --|-- 10.7%
TX --|-- 4495797 --|-- 3796850 --|-- 698947 --|-- 18.4% --|-- 1628147 --|-- 18.8%
NY --|-- 2780749 --|-- 2235776 --|-- 544973 --|-- 24.4% --|-- 2173120 --|-- 25.1%
OH --|-- 2796147 --|-- 2294167 --|-- 501980 --|-- 21.9% --|-- 2675100 --|-- 30.9%
PA --|-- 2748900 --|-- 2264309 --|-- 484591 --|-- 21.4% --|-- 3159691 --|-- 36.5%
GA --|-- 1867988 --|-- 1416085 --|-- 451903 --|-- 31.9% --|-- 3611594 --|-- 41.7%
MI --|-- 2306259 --|-- 1947100 --|-- 359159 --|-- 18.4% --|-- 3970753 --|-- 45.9%
NJ --|-- 1587494 --|-- 1253791 --|-- 333703 --|-- 26.6% --|-- 4304456 --|-- 49.7%
TN --|-- 1381852 --|-- 1056480 --|-- 325372 --|-- 30.8% --|-- 4629828 --|-- 53.5%
NC --|-- 1919903 --|-- 1607238 --|-- 312665 --|-- 19.5% --|-- 4942493 --|-- 57.1%
IL --|-- 2313415 --|-- 2019256 --|-- 294159 --|-- 14.6% --|-- 5236652 --|-- 60.5%
WI --|-- 1477122 --|-- 1235035 --|-- 242087 --|-- 19.6% --|-- 5478739 --|-- 63.3%
MN --|-- 1345168 --|-- 1110290 --|-- 234878 --|-- 21.2% --|-- 5713617 --|-- 66.0%
IND --|-- 1474475 --|-- 1242372 --|-- 232103 --|-- 18.7% --|-- 5945720 --|-- 68.7%
AL --|-- 1174278 --|-- 943799 --|-- 230479 --|-- 24.4% --|-- 6176199 --|-- 71.3%
OK --|-- 959655 --|-- 744335 --|-- 215320 --|-- 28.9% --|-- 6391519 --|-- 73.8%
KY --|-- 1064504 --|-- 869946 --|-- 194558 --|-- 22.4% --|-- 6586077 --|-- 76.1%
AZ --|-- 905379 --|-- 715112 --|-- 190267 --|-- 26.6% --|-- 6776344 --|-- 78.2%
LOU --|-- 1101710 --|-- 924670 --|-- 177040 --|-- 19.1% --|-- 6953384 --|-- 80.3%
MD --|-- 936505 --|-- 770911 --|-- 165594 --|-- 21.5% --|-- 7118978 --|-- 82.2%
CO --|-- 1017322 --|-- 884047 --|-- 133275 --|-- 15.1% --|-- 7252253 --|-- 83.7%
IO --|-- 745734 --|-- 634225 --|-- 111509 --|-- 17.6% --|-- 7363762 --|-- 85.0%
MISS --|-- 657920 --|-- 549426 --|-- 108494 --|-- 19.7% --|-- 7472256 --|-- 86.3%
UTH --|-- 608851 --|-- 512168 --|-- 96683 --|-- 18.9% --|-- 7568939 --|-- 87.4%
AK --|-- 566676 --|-- 472120 --|-- 94556 --|-- 20.0% --|-- 7663495 --|-- 88.5%
KS --|-- 711083 --|-- 616829 --|-- 94254 --|-- 15.3% --|-- 7757749 --|-- 89.6%
NM --|-- 364569 --|-- 286417 --|-- 78152 --|-- 27.3% --|-- 7835901 --|-- 90.5%
NB --|-- 486025 --|-- 408719 --|-- 77306 --|-- 18.9% --|-- 7913207 --|-- 91.4%
NH --|-- 330848 --|-- 273135 --|-- 57713 --|-- 21.1% --|-- 7970920 --|-- 92.0%
SD --|-- 232545 --|-- 190515 --|-- 42030 --|-- 22.1% --|-- 8012950 --|-- 92.5%
WY --|-- 167129 --|-- 147674 --|-- 19455 --|-- 13.2% --|-- 8032405 --|-- 92.8%
TOTALS --|-- 44364378 --|-- 36331973 --|-- 8032405 --|-- 21.7% --|--
RANKING LIST OF NEW VOTE STATES… BY % INCREASE
STATE --|-- 2004 --|-- 2000 --|-- NEW VOTES --|-- % --|-- Incr --|--
FL --|-- 3838376 --|-- 2909176 --|-- 929200 --|-- 31.9% --|--
GA --|-- 1867988 --|-- 1416085 --|-- 451903 --|-- 31.9% --|--
TN --|-- 1381852 --|-- 1056480 --|-- 325372 --|-- 30.8% --|--
OK --|-- 959655 --|-- 744335 --|-- 215320 --|-- 28.9% --|--
NM --|-- 364569 --|-- 286417 --|-- 78152 --|-- 27.3% --|--
NJ --|-- 1587494 --|-- 1253791 --|-- 333703 --|-- 26.6% --|--
AZ --|-- 905379 --|-- 715112 --|-- 190267 --|-- 26.6% --|--
AL --|-- 1174278 --|-- 943799 --|-- 230479 --|-- 24.4% --|--
NY --|-- 2780749 --|-- 2235776 --|-- 544973 --|-- 24.4% --|--
KY --|-- 1064504 --|-- 869946 --|-- 194558 --|-- 22.4% --|--
SD --|-- 232545 --|-- 190515 --|-- 42030 --|-- 22.1% --|--
OH --|-- 2796147 --|-- 2294167 --|-- 501980 --|-- 21.9% --|--
MD --|-- 936505 --|-- 770911 --|-- 165594 --|-- 21.5% --|--
PA --|-- 2748900 --|-- 2264309 --|-- 484591 --|-- 21.4% --|--
MN --|-- 1345168 --|-- 1110290 --|-- 234878 --|-- 21.2% --|--
NH --|-- 330848 --|-- 273135 --|-- 57713 --|-- 21.1% --|--
AK --|-- 566676 --|-- 472120 --|-- 94556 --|-- 20.0% --|--
MISS --|-- 657920 --|-- 549426 --|-- 108494 --|-- 19.7% --|--
WI --|-- 1477122 --|-- 1235035 --|-- 242087 --|-- 19.6% --|--
NC --|-- 1919903 --|-- 1607238 --|-- 312665 --|-- 19.5% --|--
LOU --|-- 1101710 --|-- 924670 --|-- 177040 --|-- 19.1% --|--
NB --|-- 486025 --|-- 408719 --|-- 77306 --|-- 18.9% --|--
UTH --|-- 608851 --|-- 512168 --|-- 96683 --|-- 18.9% --|--
IND --|-- 1474475 --|-- 1242372 --|-- 232103 --|-- 18.7% --|--
MI --|-- 2306259 --|-- 1947100 --|-- 359159 --|-- 18.4% --|--
TX --|-- 4495797 --|-- 3796850 --|-- 698947 --|-- 18.4% --|--
IO --|-- 745734 --|-- 634225 --|-- 111509 --|-- 17.6% --|--
KS --|-- 711083 --|-- 616829 --|-- 94254 --|-- 15.3% --|--
CO --|-- 1017322 --|-- 884047 --|-- 133275 --|-- 15.1% --|--
IL --|-- 2313415 --|-- 2019256 --|-- 294159 --|-- 14.6% --|--
WY --|-- 167129 --|-- 147674 --|-- 19455 --|-- 13.2% --|--
TOTALS --|-- 44364378 --|-- 36331973 --|-- 8032405 --|-- 21.7% --|--
REMAINING STATES --|-- 14635622 --|-- 627595 --|-- 4.3% --|--
YES, that's what I am telling you. Scrupilous is in you and your scorn libs eyes only.Are you telling me that if Kerry had won under the same scrupilous cir stances that W supporters would just shut up and take it?
Figures don't lie, but liars can figure.
Go take STATISTICS and then you will know that it isnt even improbable considering the flawed nature of voluntary polls.
I actually heard on the radio that the Kerry camp put out fake exit poll numbers early on in the day and the rest of the news networks picked them up and perpetuated the myth. I doubt this will be investigated except by those who refuse to accept reality.. *ahem* Anyway, I wasn't able to find the article referenced by the radio guy but I did find this little blurb...
http://electionlawblog.org/archives/002324.html
As I have said before, everytime that this nation takes a wrong direction, intentional or not, we pay for it dearly. In 4 years there will be another million dead, many American GI's. Bank on it.
Do I want this to happen? No, but reality can be a cold slap in the face.
What are the chances of Bush voters being manipulated by Kerry supporters into supporting Kerry in exit polls? All this is is crap by Repug operatives like Morris to help muddy the waters and hide the fraud.I actually heard on the radio that the Kerry camp put out fake exit poll numbers early on in the day and the rest of the news networks picked them up and perpetuated the myth. I doubt this will be investigated except by those who refuse to accept reality.. *ahem* Anyway, I wasn't able to find the article referenced by the radio guy but I did find this little blurb...
Another million dead?
Where is the first million?
What are you talking about now? What million? What was the first million? Is every nut job in the US going to off themselves?
Go through your stats again. Notice the use of words like "guess" in that article? Even if any of that were true, there are many logical explanations. What if the electronic voting is more accurate than paper ballots? What is Bush is getting screwed in every state that still uses paper? If Texas was the second highest location for new votes, wouldn't it seem reasonable that a good majority of those votes were for Bush? Isn't that the same for Georgia?
I don't see how you can complain now about the machines when paper was the devil in 2000. If the Demos handled all the voting regulations and Bush still won, there would still be a conspiracy. Give it a rest. If Kerry is your hero then why did he give up?
Exactly, I was typing that last post out when you posted. Maybe Dan is talking about the million theories he has had shot down in here.
Another million on top of the 101,000+ that have already died in iraq. When w was Governator of Texas he foresaw over the killing of 150 texas inmates. In his first 4 years as President, W has led to the killing of 100,000+ Iraqi citizens and as of yesterday, 1,1016 American GI's. Almost a 1000 to 1 increase. Logic follows that at the end of another 4 years, 1,000,000+ more people will die thanks to the policies of George Walker Bush.
Oh it's crap alright but it aint' comin' form the republican side!!!
I have a question...how many of you who voted were asked to participate in an exit poll? I know I wasn't asKed and the last time I checked the votes counted in the actual election count a whole lot more than any cast in an exit poll.
Dan are you related to knownalien? (those from SR will know what I'm talking about)
My point is that there were fake polls out there so your exit polls mean crap.. Let it go already! Sheesh!
So by your fake numbers, 100,000 have died, and ANOTHER MILLION will die?
You seriously can't be this stupid.
Michael Moore, is that you?
Logic follows
Dan, you ARE a comic GENIUS i tellya.....
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