Thirty years ago, the European Union’s passport-free
Schengen zone came into being. At the time, the International Monetary Fund estimated that the abolition of border controls on the continent would add 1 to 3% to the area's GDP growth. In the most conservative estimate the pact has brought an additional 28 billion euros in economic growth; the sum could realistically be as high as 50 billion.
This is the scale of the kinds of economic benefits that would be lost if more countries were to re-impose border control, thus ending the three decades of free movement in Europe. And even a partial collapse of the zone could harbor significant costs for all.
In this tense and tumultuous time for the European Union as a whole, Schengen is in real danger of disappearing. Buckling under the pressure of the wave of migrants fleeing war and seeking better lives, six nations have “temporarily” reintroduced border controls with other EU members. While allowed for under exceptional cir stances by
the agreement, this is the first time in two decades that such a closure has occurred. In the absence of Europe-wide solutions decided at minister-level meetings, more countries could follow suit to protect their security.
Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who holds the rotating presidency of the EU for the first half of 2016, has warned that the eurozone has but a few months left to save the treaty from oblivion. He has also proposed a so-called “Schengen Plan B” — a last resort in which the zone could shrink to a core of five or six countries: the Netherlands, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, Austria and perhaps France. Amsterdam needs open borders with Germany to maintain the viability of the important port of Rotterdam, but could favor ejecting Italy from the treaty, which it deems too hesitant in its border enforcement.
On the other hand, EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker has warned that
any move to end Schengen would also spell the end of the euro. He may be exaggerating, but simple math tells us that the return of border controls would impose heavy costs on all member countries.