Trump Is Just A Normal Polling Error Behind Clinton

[ducks]

http://www.cnn.com/2016/11/04/politi...ate/index.html

[Reck]

http://dailycaller.com/2016/11/04/ex...d-in-michigan/

"The survey, conducted by Strategic National, a Republican leaning consulting firm based in Michigan"

Does anything else need be said?

You look for a result you want and you get it. Specially if you're the one conducting it.

[pgardn]

I can promise you FL will not be done counting on Nov 8th.

Very good point.

[pgardn]

Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.

I was just hoping it would mean we can still laugh at Britain but they can't laugh back.

[ducks]

So democrat leaning polls are ok but not republics

[ducks]

troit Free Press Poll: Trump Pulls Within Margin of Error

[pgardn]

Trump could pull off a surprise win, but it looks like the wicked witch of Washington, D.C. is coming in with all her corruption, scandals. People in this country that vote her in will regret it because it's such a stupid vote anyway with her obvious corruption, FBI investigation and rising Obamacare costs. This country needs change bigtime, not gonna happen with a Hillary presidency or if indicted Tim Kaine presidency.

Not bigtime, big league.

[DMX7]

troit Free Press Poll: Trump Pulls Within Margin of Error

You're going to have a hard Tuesday. Get the alcohol ready.

[baseline bum]

Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.

No one is excited about a Clinton presidency, but I would be extremely relieved to see her win to keep the house from being able to steer the direction of the country with no opposition.

[baseline bum]

Nate Silver has fallen into the trap he used to accuse the mainstream media of falling into, and that trap is getting lost in the day-to-day drama of the campaign (i.e., the "who won the day" bull ). Ultimately, the math does not make sense for Trump. He is not winning this election. He would have to start by winning the crucial swing states and I doubt he sweeps those, then he has to flip a democrat state and that's unlikely, then he has to keep from losing a dependable red state which is also becoming less likely (think Utah, Arizona or Georgia)... The probability of it all falling into place for him is close to none. It's possible but it's not happening -- he is going to lose.

Nate Silver is pretty clear why he's giving Trump better odds than most others: because a lot of Clinton's strength in the popular vote comes from red states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia that she has no hope of winning and that her firewall is pretty fragile. Silver knows rust belt states votes aren't independent from one another, so if Trump starts picking up steam in Michigan he probably will in Wisconsin and Ohio too. I hate the ing electoral college. This wouldn't be a Buster Douglas beating Tyson level of upset to see that fat piece of win.

[tlongII]

Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.

Except for RG. He's a big fan apparently.

[AFBlue]

I don't think it's fair to say Trump dug too deep a hole, the only reason he has a slight chance of winning is that he is somewhat compe ive in places any other GOP candidate would be getting their ass kicked.

I know popular opinion is that a normal boring white male GOP candidate repeating the same ole losing message would win easily this time but I don't see it. Electorally the GOP has spent 2 decades digging too deep a hole with the standard GOP message imo.

I don't think you can say definitively that a non-Trump candidate would be faring worse in the states where the GOP is less compe ive. Part of the current state may have to do with Trump's grassroots appeal, whatever that may be, but it may also have to do with the lack of enthusiasm for the Democratic ticket.

Not sure there's a way to prove either of us right, but I the conventional wisdom of a mainstream GOP candidate winning this going away seems like pretty sound logic to me based on how flawed of a candidate Hillary is.

[boutons_deux]

Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.

#NeverYourBoyTrump

[DMX7]

Nate Silver is pretty clear why he's giving Trump better odds than most others: because a lot of Clinton's strength in the popular vote comes from red states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia that she has no hope of winning and that her firewall is pretty fragile. Silver knows rust belt states votes aren't independent from one another, so if Trump starts picking up steam in Michigan he probably will in Wisconsin and Ohio too. I hate the ing electoral college. This wouldn't be a Buster Douglas beating Tyson level of upset to see that fat piece of win.

I'm not even taking into consideration the national popular vote. She could lose every old confederate state (sans Virginia) and still win.

[Reck]

Nate Silver is pretty clear why he's giving Trump better odds than most others: because a lot of Clinton's strength in the popular vote comes from red states like Texas, Arizona, and Georgia that she has no hope of winning and that her firewall is pretty fragile. Silver knows rust belt states votes aren't independent from one another, so if Trump starts picking up steam in Michigan he probably will in Wisconsin and Ohio too. I hate the ing electoral college. This wouldn't be a Buster Douglas beating Tyson level of upset to see that fat piece of win.

Nate Silver's forecast are poll sensitive. And with so many questionable polls out in the last few days (Most of which are republican leaning) it throws him off.

Back in 2012 the same thing happened. Everything was tied.

[florige]

Yeah, there will be a lot of crowing, strutting, and celebrating in here Wednesday until it soaks in to everyone that we just elected Hillary Clinton president.

I don't think it will be personally. I think Hillary is going to squeeze by by the skin of her teeth tbh. I just get the feeling that's it's going to be a whole lot closer than people think.

[florige]

No one is excited about a Clinton presidency, but I would be extremely relieved to see her win to keep the house from being able to steer the direction of the country with no opposition.

This is what worries me. Turnout could be key. I know talking about signs and stickers is dumb, but I'm 08 and 2012 Obama had this state covered with signs, bumper stickers, etc... Not sure about where you guys live, I have yet to see a single Hillary yard sign anywhere. I think I may have run across a bumper sticker. Idk just something I noticed. Is Dem's sometimes have a history of not turning out. That's why I think she is back in her "firewall" states the last few days.

[baseline bum]

Nate Silver's forecast are poll sensitive. And with so many questionable polls out in the last few days (Most of which are republican leaning) it throws him off.

Back in 2012 the same thing happened. Everything was tied.

Nate Silver had Obama with a 91% chance of winning the electoral vote on election day 2012, and an 83.7% chance 5 days before the election. When Silver says something I listen based on his track record. Dude is 99/100 calling states the previous two elections.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...2012-forecast/

[Reck]

Nate Silver had Obama with a 91% chance of winning the electoral vote on election day 2012, and an 83.7% chance 5 days before the election. When Silver says something I listen based on his track record. Dude is 99/100 calling states the previous two elections.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...2012-forecast/

Good thing we're still 4 days out then.

[ducks]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sfkVLcZuCA4


Lol the president looses his cool

[baseline bum]

Good thing we're still 4 days out then.

4,5,6,7,8

[Reck]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sfkVLcZuCA4


Lol the president looses his cool

That was actually badass.

In a Trump rally, the old man gets beaten half to death. He gave the protester respect.

[ducks]

That was actually badass.

In a Trump rally, the old man gets beaten half to death. He gave the protester respect.

With the clinton person who is getting paid
By her

[DMX7]

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=sfkVLcZuCA4


Lol the president looses his cool

That was actually a great moment for him. There was a republican on TV commenting about it and even he said the same.

[pgardn]

This is what worries me. Turnout could be key. I know talking about signs and stickers is dumb, but I'm 08 and 2012 Obama had this state covered with signs, bumper stickers, etc... Not sure about where you guys live, I have yet to see a single Hillary yard sign anywhere. I think I may have run across a bumper sticker. Idk just something I noticed. Is Dem's sometimes have a history of not turning out. That's why I think she is back in her "firewall" states the last few days.

San Antonio Tx NW side. All yard signs are rare in my neighborhood this election compared to other years. Yet I bet more people vote.

It will clearly be negative voting. People are too embarrassed to put up signs for either candidate IMO. I have seen signs more signs for sheriff etc... fewer for presidential candidates. Sums up my feelings as well. Personally I never put up signs nor display stickers.