2018 midterms: stats, analysis and prognostication

[RandomGuy]

So basically who knows exactly what it will mean to be conserative in say 2035 or something. Maybe very different than today

Large swings of views are infrequent. If you want to bet, bet on little change. Especially for conservatives, whose general mindset is, by definition, resistant to change.

Not impossible, but I doubt the Republican platform of 2035 will look much different than 2018.

[AaronY]

Lol

President Reagan Pushes Anti-pornography package

By Editorial Staff
Published January 2, 1988
WASHINGTON, D.C. (FR) – President Ronald Reagan recently introduced a package of anti-pornography legislation to Congress called the “Child Protection and Obscenity Enforcement Act of 1987.” The bill’s two-fold purpose is to update the federal law to take into account new technologies and ways of doing business employed by the pornography industry, and to remove loopholes and weaknesses in the law, which have given criminals in this area the upper hand far too long.
The package was developed in response to the Attorney General’s 1986 Commission on Pornography. In the last several years, distributors of obscenity and child pornography have expanded into new areas,” said Reagan. “They are employing new technologies and reaching new audiences.”
“This is how any business grows and develops, except that this business is illegal,” he said. “This administration is putting the purveyors of illegal obscenity and child pornography on notice: your industry’s days are numbered.”
The bill would have the following effects: it prohibits distribution of obscenity through computers, cable TV, and phone lines (dial-a-porn), prohibits the selling of children by parents or guardians for the production of child pornography, requires producers of pornography to keep accurate and complete records of the ages and names of persons in films with the burden of proof for legal age of actors and actresses placed on the movie producers.
In May 1984, the national commission to study the scope and nature of pornography to the U.S. was formed. After 14 months of research, the Attorney General’s Commission released its final report in July 1986 that contained recommendations for changes in Federal Law. Attorney General Edwin Meese III announced a seven-point initiative to address the obscenity and child pornography problem.

http://www.forerunner.com/forerunner...n_package.html

[AaronY]

Republicans. For the first time, a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents do not oppose allowing gays and lesbians to marry legally. Today, 48% of Republicans and Republican leaners oppose same-sex marriage, while 47% favor this. As recently as 2013, Republicans opposed gay marriage by nearly two-to-one (61% to 33%).

http://www.people-press.org/2017/06/...een-skeptical/

[RandomGuy]

I heard this same about Texas going blue in 2008. About Bush being an anchor around the Republicans necks in 2004. Texas is nowhere close to going purple even and the midwest is trending redder. Making a forecast that we'll never see another Repbulican president in your lifetime is lunacy, especially when we don't have a good idea who will be the Democrats' pick to run in 2020. How many people are going to be inspired by someone like Cory Booker? And yet he's a leading candidate. Beating Trump in 2020 is pretty far from a given, much less winning in each of 2020, 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040, 2044, 2048, 2052, 2056, and so on.

2052 will likely be beyond my lifetime.

Demographics are not fast moving things, and I would point out, even so, that Trump only won Texas by about 9% with 46% turnout

2012: 16% 43% turnout
2008: 12% 46% turnout
2004 25% 46% turnout
2000: 21%
1996 5% 43% turnout (6% to perot)
1992 3% (22% to perot)

Turnout will be key, and we know this. Not only do you have a younger, browner population aging into voting years, they are PISSED at the Republicans.
Women are PISSED at Republicans.

This will come to a head in the next couple of cycles. Once Democrats in Texas get a taste of having their votes really count, Texas overall participation will revert to the mean for the US, so you will have a confluence of several factors.

"it didn't happen in the past" didn't mean much for heavier than air flight, moon landings, or womens sufferage.

changes.

[boutons_deux]

changes.

wishful thinking.

The oligarchy/Repugs have so rigged the economy, so rigged elections, so rigged the judiciary, that America is now, has been a coup d'etat by the corrupt oligarchy.

Current American RIGGED Capitalism is fundamentally anti-democratic, is why Capitalist America is fundamentally not a democracy.

America is an oligarchy of Capitalists, a plutocracy and kleptocracy.

America is so rigged now, that even if the Dems win Congress next month, the Repugs will have enough power to execute total gridlock, and if anything Dem escapes Congress, Trash will veto.

And like the Repugs, the Dems do what their big donors (Capitalists) want, and that's always to leave Capitalism alone.

[baseline bum]

2052 will likely be beyond my lifetime.

Demographics are not fast moving things, and I would point out, even so, that Trump only won Texas by about 9% with 46% turnout

2012: 16% 43% turnout
2008: 12% 46% turnout
2004 25% 46% turnout
2000: 21%
1996 5% 43% turnout (6% to perot)
1992 3% (22% to perot)

Turnout will be key, and we know this. Not only do you have a younger, browner population aging into voting years, they are PISSED at the Republicans.
Women are PISSED at Republicans.

This will come to a head in the next couple of cycles. Once Democrats in Texas get a taste of having their votes really count, Texas overall participation will revert to the mean for the US, so you will have a confluence of several factors.

"it didn't happen in the past" didn't mean much for heavier than air flight, moon landings, or womens sufferage.

changes.

Anecodotal, but a lot of people I know who hate Trump don't vote. People being pissed at Trump and the GOP don't matter if they don't show up to cast their ballots.

[SnakeBoy]

If you think the Republicans are going to control the Senate after 2020, you haven't been keeping up. At that time, the Democrats will control all 3 branches of government, probably by a pretty hefty majority.

Trump will almost certainly be the last Republican president in my lifetime.

I know that permanent one party control has been "your truth" for many years but those of us living on planet earth know that it doesn't work that way.

[DMC]

The tendency to think the rest of the country thinks mostly like you and your friends do, that's amusing. These are the same minds that never thought Donald would ever sit in the Oval Office. Clearly there are other people not being considered here. Perhaps to much time in the echo chambers has created this illusion for some of you that you are the majority.

[RandomGuy]

Anecodotal, but a lot of people I know who hate Trump don't vote. People being pissed at Trump and the GOP don't matter if they don't show up to cast their ballots.

... and that is exactly what we are working on to change. Moving people from "non-voter" to "voter". Hays county has a record number of people registered, and the elections official that I spoke to said she was still processing more.

You are exactly right. If they don't vote, it don't matter, but Democrats know that, and that is what we are targeting to change, with some effect.

[DMC]

... and that is exactly what we are working on to change. Moving people from "non-voter" to "voter". Hays county has a record number of people registered, and the elections official that I spoke to said she was still processing more.

You are exactly right. If they don't vote, it don't matter, but Democrats know that, and that is what we are targeting to change, with some effect.

You're the same guy who talks a big game but won't spend your beer money to play it. I don't worry about your efforts.

[RandomGuy]

I know that permanent one party control has been "your truth" for many years but those of us living on planet earth know that it doesn't work that way.

Time will tell, and I have never said that one party control of anything was desirable, merely that one party will wax, while the other wanes. No more, no less.

As you yourself have noted the Republican party is in "one party control" in many states for decades, and recently have surged to a record amount of state legislative seats, controlling many levels of government in this country.

They have done this through, essentially, cheating by jerrymandering and diluting Democratic votes, directly undermining the concept of democracy with all votes counting equally.

Hardly a long term strategy.

Neither is the paucity of actual solutions to real problems. The vacuous "culture war" outrage while it may earn sponsor dollars for advertisers in the right-wing propaganda mills, don't really translate into workable solutions.

If the party's policies are based on a flawed understanding of reality, as is often demonstrated here, the odds of workable solutions drops. Reality has taken on a liberal bias in this way.

[RandomGuy]

The tendency to think the rest of the country thinks mostly like you and your friends do, that's amusing.

Polls of policy solutions favored by progressives tend to, on balance be favored by a majority of the country. The information is out there for you to find.

That, of course, assumes you would spend time to determine what the truth is, over simply criticizing me for various perceived personal flaws.

Would you like data on what Americans generally think when it comes to policy solutions?

[DMC]

Polls of policy solutions favored by progressives tend to, on balance be favored by a majority of the country. The information is out there for you to find.

That, of course, assumes you would spend time to determine what the truth is, over simply criticizing me for various perceived personal flaws.

Would you like data on what Americans generally think when it comes to policy solutions?

Truth: Donald Trump is the POTUS
Fantasy: No Republican will ever win that position again

Any questions?

[RandomGuy]

You're the same guy who talks a big game but won't spend your beer money to play it. I don't worry about your efforts.

Another personal attack at the expense of reasoned debate.

More evidence for the "intellectual and moral bankruptcy" theory of modern conservatism. It's almost as if you can't actually debate anything substantial.

Can you actually debate anything rationally?

[DMC]

Another personal attack at the expense of reasoned debate.

More evidence for the "intellectual and moral bankruptcy" theory of modern conservatism. It's almost as if you can't actually debate anything substantial.

Can you actually debate anything rationally?

[RandomGuy]

The tendency to think the rest of the country thinks mostly like you and your friends do, that's amusing.

Would you like data on what Americans generally think when it comes to policy solutions?

Truth: Donald Trump is the POTUS
Fantasy: No Republican will ever win that position again

Any questions?

So no, you don't really want information on what Americans generally think when it comes to policy solutions for some reason.

Do you base all your decisions on what is true on ignorance, or just this one thing?

[DMC]

So no, you don't really want information on what Americans generally think when it comes to policy solutions for some reason.

Do you base all your decisions on what is true on ignorance, or just this one thing?

Donald Trump won.

Voting Americans by electoral college majority thought different than you.

[AaronY]

R.I.P. Right wing

Circa whenever det edmund burke dude posted about triggering dem libs-2020

[hater]

Repugs keep senate

House is a toss up I will say Demonrats take minimum lead in house. Inhope so otherwise Trump will clean house

[AaronY]

We got em on the ropes fa sho!

All they got is the presidency, supreme court, 31 of the governorships, the house, and the senate left!

Endangered species tbh

[hater]

Inwill vote democrats for house nigas. Its good to have some kind of balance especially wit a nut like Ttump

[spurraider21]

We got em on the ropes fa sho!

All they got is the presidency, supreme court, 31 of the governorships, the house, and the senate left!

Endangered species tbh

[RandomGuy]

You're the same guy who talks a big game but won't spend your beer money to play it. I don't worry about your efforts.

Another personal attack at the expense of reasoned debate.

More evidence for the "intellectual and moral bankruptcy" theory of modern conservatism. It's almost as if you can't actually debate anything substantial.

Can you actually debate anything rationally?

So, I will take that as a no, you can't really debate anything rationally.

You prefer emotion over reason, and that is plain enough here, and you have literally made my case for me about modern conservatism's moral and intellectual bankruptcy.
.

Damn, that was easy. smh

[RandomGuy]

Must have hit a nerve. So much attention, I am almost flattered.

Don't have to believe me at all. Quite frankly I would prefer it if you didn't.

Troll away, and I will simply speak to people whose minds can be changed, and simply point to your words and total inability to make a coherent argument as all the proof I need that the policy solutions and preferences Democrats and the left have are the only rational alternative.

That won't be here, of course, but will be out in RL, where it matters.

[ElNono]

We got em on the ropes fa sho!

All they got is the presidency, supreme court, 31 of the governorships, the house, and the senate left!

Endangered species tbh

But the liberal media! ter and Facebook facism!