2018 midterms: stats, analysis and prognostication

[DMC]

Sure. Keep thinking that.

The day I "balk" at anything you post is the day I eat my hat, troll-boy. Your chest-thumping would be a lot more convincing if you had anything other than trolling in your history.

As it is... hollow words from someone who can't do better.

Seriously, if you think there is something unresolved, feel free to bump the thread. Or you can just keep crying for my attention. I'm not the center of Randomguys world

Jeez.

Damn you triggered. Returning over and over to the same post with after thoughts. I am glad you're considering the truth I dropped on you.

[Winehole23]

“From a 35,000-foot view, the story in the generic ballot numbers is largely one of stability…. Republicans’ numbers have reverted back to where they were in early September, with around a 25 percent chance (1 in 4) of keeping the House. However, they’re somewhat better than than they were in mid-September… But there’s some pretty darn good news for Republicans in our Senate forecast: Republicans have been favored to keep the Senate all along. But their position has improved quite a bit over the last week in all three versions of our model.”

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...dterm-chances/

[Winehole23]

: ActBlue, which supplies the digital fundraising platform for nearly every candidate Democratic candidate, said this week it has processed $385 million in contributions during the third quarter to candidates and liberal causes. That was more than the group processed during the entire 2014 election cycle, it said

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/pol...219427940.html

[RandomGuy]

Damn you triggered. Returning over and over to the same post with after thoughts. I am glad you're considering the truth I dropped on you.

So, no you don't have anything. If you really had anything you would have posted it.

Hard to be triggered by nothing.

[RandomGuy]

https://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/pol...219427940.html

Just donated to Susan Collins' future opponent.

Map for GOP in 2020 looks worse for the GOP than this year's did for Democrats. Odds are that the GOP will barely eke out a tiny majority (50-50 split).

That majority will likely go away in 2020.

2 more years of Trump will not make Democrats any less energized or women less angry.

Hays County sees major rise in voter registration
https://www.kvue.com/article/news/lo.../269-601408880

Hays County, specifically, has the highest percentage of people registered to vote out of all counties in the state of Texas. For the 2016 general election, the Hays County area had about 116,000 registered voters. As of October, the county already has almost 130,000 voters and that number is continuing to rise.

Don't mean if they don't get out to the polls, but we are continuing our voter outreach efforts. Nothing earth shattering, just a lot of polite conversations, and listening to people.

Went block walking with a local city council candidate, who has tapped into the progressive movement, and was entirely motivated, as many other women were, to run.

[Reck]

Texas will make sure to purge registered voters mysteriously to keep the game rigged.

Like New York does for the Democrats here.

[RandomGuy]

Texas will make sure to purge registered voters mysteriously to keep the game rigged.

Like New York does for the Democrats here.

I am sure they will. Republicans cheat any which way they can, because they know it is how they keep control.

[RandomGuy]

We oppressed tbh

I will predict that my representative to the Texas house will be a Democrat, who worked her ass off talking to people non-stop. She block-walked and talked to people right up to the point where she gave birth, took a few days off, then got right back out and kept campaigning.



https://www.texasobserver.org/hays-c...ouse-district/

The county was close in 2014 and 2016, but the balance of the new registrations will heavily favor us.

Really hard to tell without accurate polling, so hard to give it a solid "yeah this will happen", but we have a pretty good shot at this.

[Winehole23]

toss ups breaking to the right? the poll is from RCP.

[Winehole23]

Republican men are more fired up, Republican women, somewhat less than men:

“A rise in enthusiasm, however, is clear among Republicans, although the increase is limited to GOP men. Last week, 60% of Republican men said they were more enthusiastic than usual in voting in this year’s congressional elections. This week the percentage has risen 11 points. There was little change among Republican women.”

https://today.yougov.com/topics/poli...t-and-midterms

[SnakeBoy]

I will predict that my representative to the Texas house will be a Democrat, who worked her ass off talking to people non-stop. She block-walked and talked to people right up to the point where she gave birth, took a few days off, then got right back out and kept campaigning.



https://www.texasobserver.org/hays-c...ouse-district/

The county was close in 2014 and 2016, but the balance of the new registrations will heavily favor us.

Really hard to tell without accurate polling, so hard to give it a solid "yeah this will happen", but we have a pretty good shot at this.

Okay, good luck to you. Babies always make good political props.

[RandomGuy]

toss ups breaking to the right? the poll is from RCP.

Eyup. Five thirty eight's polling aggregate moves the needle a bit less favorable to Democrats, now only 72% or so chance, which is closer to the starting mean.

[RandomGuy]

Okay, good luck to you. Babies always make good political props.

It makes her vastly more approachable, and sympathetic. She has noted that it makes it easier to talk to people, and get people talking.

Erin is, however, very smart and has been working very hard. She has talked to 6000 people or so, and is still getting new voters to register, and having the kind of engaged conversations with people that get them to vote after they get registered.

[SnakeBoy]

It makes her vastly more approachable, and sympathetic. She has noted that it makes it easier to talk to people, and get people talking.

Erin is, however, very smart and has been working very hard. She has talked to 6000 people or so, and is still getting new voters to register, and having the kind of engaged conversations with people that get them to vote after they get registered.

Meh, I just took a look at her website and she's a typical no backbone democrat. Afraid to say what she means.

Texas’ revenue system needs updating. Our state taxes are regressive - households with the lowest incomes pay the highest percentage of their income in taxes; households with the highest incomes pay the lowest percentage of their income in taxes. In other words, those who can least afford it pay the most. The poorest 20% of Texans pay an average of over 12% of their income in state and local taxes while the top 1% pay an average of under 3%. Meanwhile the Legislature has cut the corporate franchise tax.

Texas state revenue comes from various taxing resources such as sales taxes, franchise taxes, natural gas and oil production taxes, and motor vehicle sales taxes. Property taxes, however, only go to school districts, cities, counties, and special purpose districts like water districts. Property tax bills have risen tremendously in recent years, and House District 45 has not been spared in this increase. The reason for this has a lot to do with the scaleback of state support for public schools. This has forced school districts to raise their tax rates to make up for that diminishing state support. Increasing the money that the state provides to local school districts will go a long way to lower Texan’s tax bills.

As your legislator, I will work to diversify Texas's revenue sources, to make our tax structure more progressive, and to reduce the burden on local property taxes.

Tldr version is she wants a state income tax instead of relying on high property taxes but she's too afraid to say it. Too bad, I thinks she's right about that. Never have understood why Texas democrats won't just explain why a state income tax is better than our reliance on high property taxes. It's an argument they could win if they would just make it.

[Reck]

Eyup. Five thirty eight's polling aggregate moves the needle a bit less favorable to Democrats, now only 72% or so chance, which is closer to the starting mean.

I'm curious to see new polls. Post rapeK confirmation.

[RandomGuy]

I'm curious to see new polls. Post rapeK confirmation.

Best guess seems to be a bump in support for Republicans to some degree.

Problem is for them, they won. Losers tend to be a lot more fired up to my experience.

Further, the odds that Trump will do or say something stupid in the next month approach 100%, and that will steal the oxygen from this fire, a big problem for the raging dumpster fire that is the Republican party at the moment. They will not be able to capitalize on it.

[RandomGuy]

Meh, I just took a look at her website and she's a typical no backbone democrat. Afraid to say what she means.



Tldr version is she wants a state income tax instead of relying on high property taxes but she's too afraid to say it. Too bad, I thinks she's right about that. Never have understood why Texas democrats won't just explain why a state income tax is better than our reliance on high property taxes. It's an argument they could win if they would just make it.

She just says "updating". I will ask her what she means. Lucky for us, it is local enough to get a direct answer.

[ducks]

In the CNN survey, Trump's approval rating rose to 41 percent, compared with 36 percent in early September, and 42 percent in early August.

[Winehole23]

posting polls in multiple threads, classic ducks

[ducks]

POLL: Independents Disapprove Of Dems Treatment Of Kavanaugh By A Wide Margin

"58% of independents disapproved"

[Winehole23]

thanks for underscoring the point in #185

[Spurs Homer]

29 days before the "rigged russian" midterms

2016 Russia helped team red. 2016,2017 & 2018 - Red team refused to do anything to protect the 2018 mid-terms -
because they are going to be helped again.

When you have a brainwashed cult - you can do anything, say anything, and the cult will refuse to hold you accountable because - well - look at Ducks...

[Reck]

In the CNN survey, Trump's approval rating rose to 41 percent, compared with 36 percent in early September, and 42 percent in early August.

Congratulation on being a couple of point less ty?

[DarrinS]

29 days before the "rigged russian" midterms.

[Winehole23]

your man started that meme, D.

imitation is the sincerest form of flattery that mediocrity can offer to greatness.