we really don't have anything to work with. trade belinelli for a punch in the face, resign gay on a weak 10Mish contract and that's about it. Hopefully lonnie and murray provide the needed spark.
We’re really hinging on the development of the young guys as our biggest offseason moves. As much as I love the thrill of new players and analyzing their impact, this is really good. Time for the team to continue gelling, let the young guys improve, and hopefully we’ll get to see a healthy Murray do some damage
Nice read ��
i also think the Spurs will be patient as always and as pop said few days ago they will not make a lot of mooves
what i see is : 1/ resign gay 2/ draft or sign a sf/pf and a pf/c
that will probably make beli and Bertans out of the rotation but imo they will stay and one will go during the year
the only thing that could change things is if they draft a pg or sg they really like and who can play next year... that could unload mills or Forbes...
white is on a rookie scale contract and Mills is on an overpaid contract.
Agreed on all points.Didn't mean to insinuate that Pop would run a 9-man rotation. The Spurs have gone at least 10 deep for more than a decade now.
I was merely pointing out that even after lowballing the top nine players' minutes, there's only a little bit of room left at the dinner table.
1) Murray averaged closer to 27 MPG after he became a starter. Pop has continually gone out of his way to stress how big of a part of the future Murray is so I do think 28 MPG qualifies as a lowball. A torn ACL really isn't a load management situation. Playing him 28 MPG wouldn't put him in any extra danger, especially since he'll be about a year out from the surgery date by the time next season starts. If Murray starts, which is likely (IMO, at least), he'll probably average closer to 30 MPG.
2) There would literally be riots if White came off the bench and only averaged 24 minutes per game. Like literal riots
3) Ginobili came off the bench and averaged 28-30 MPG in his younger days ... and he was a player who was easily fatigued. Don't see how that points to either White or Murray averaging "22ish" minutes.
Yeah, as far as I can tell, we came to the same conclusions here.
I see where you're coming from but it's difficult to come up with an equation that makes sense. On one hand, you can re-sign Gay, use your draft picks however you want and still have the entire MLE to spend. Is there really a realistic scenario out there where you let Gay walk, use your assets to salary dump two or three players (in a realistic scenario, you probably would need to trade away both first rounders to even have hope of opening up $20 million) and find a player to add who makes it all worthwhile? I just don't see it. Are the Spurs one $20 million free agent away (while subtracting Gay, at least) from being a championship contender? That would need to be the case if you're going to throw away assets in a win-now move.
And that's another reason why re-signing Gay makes sense: not only do they avoid wasting assets in the short-term, they keep the books clean for the long-term while remaining in playoff contention -- and given the DeRozan trade, that's their preferred route.
Personally, I'd rather the Spurs keep the tinder dry, their assets plush and wait for a better time to make a splash. With a team built around DeRozan and Aldridge, I don't see them being an "aggressive" move away from taking a big step forward. Patience, IMO.
I do think SA will have to trade a guard though.
I think Bellini (& Metu if needed) to Philly for Simmons & one of their 2nds makes a great deal of sense around the draft.. Especially with this FA class being relatively weak, and how Sixers can go over cap on their own FAs. SA can immediately waive Simmons a few days later ( July 1st is the date his contract is guaranteed for the 19/20 season).
Spurs could use the pick for a draft and stash such as Samanic, or Sirvydis....or pick Jontay Porter/Brazdeikis and put him on a Blossomgame path initially for the first year).
It's hard to imagine how two more players fit into the rotation, especially if the Spurs draft anybody worth getting minutes as a rookie (long shot, I know).
I'd rather put it all towards taking one good shot at a defensive SF or PF to round out the roster.
I could see a path to a 3 or 4 year contract for Rudy. In TimVP's scenario, he's getting $12-13 million guaranteed for 1 year. The "worst case" presented was a fully guaranteed 2 year for $36M. But if he wants the guaranteed money and is willing to stay long term, something like a full MLE contract (say starting at $9M, 8% raises over 4 years = $40.3M. Or try and get really clever, start at say $12M, but 8% decreases annually = $42.3M ) is something I could see the Spurs offering... IMO, it wouldn't be terrible, because I think you can still have a max in year in 2021-22 ( 20-21 won't be a big FA year, Derozan will only opt out if he's made a promise of some sort of an extension, and thus keeping Aldridge makes sense). But in 21-22, even assuming a combined $34M annually for extended Poetl and Murray (roughly as much as we can do and stay under the lux tax in 20-21), we are still looking at approximately a max slot available...
I don't agree with this. Murray played 27 mpg in starts because there was no viable alternative. Same with White. I don't mean to imply that the minutes weren't deserved, but there's little doubt in my mind that if they're both healthy and ready to go, they'll take minutes from each other rather than increase their minutes. I certainly don't project Murray as getting 30ish mpg just 'cause. There's a big difference between getting a lot of minutes between Mills and Green or with Gasol (and his elite shooting that year) on the floor, and thinking he'll get those same minutes with White, DeRozan and Poeltl. I'm not going to say I know what goes on in Pop's head, but dude thought Murray/DeRozan/Gay/Aldridge/Gasol was going to work. Just because he wants something doesn't mean it's going to end up working out.1) Murray averaged closer to 27 MPG after he became a starter. Pop has continually gone out of his way to stress how big of a part of the future Murray is so I do think 28 MPG qualifies as a lowball. A torn ACL really isn't a load management situation. Playing him 28 MPG wouldn't put him in any extra danger, especially since he'll be about a year out from the surgery date by the time next season starts. If Murray starts, which is likely (IMO, at least), he'll probably average closer to 30 MPG.
2) There would literally be riots if White came off the bench and only averaged 24 minutes per game. Like literal riots
That's why I specifically countered the "Manu couldn't play more" rebuttal. It's not that Pop held Manu back, so he can hold anyone back. It's that a featured 22mpg role can feel as impactful as a 30mpg role. The idea that one of those guys playing a focused bench role as a bad thing is wrong-headed. Honestly, I think it's the best use of Murray's skill-set to play with a Mills/Beli or Bertans/Gay/Poeltl second unit. They need his energy and and defense in a way that the starting unit (with a defensive forward playing PF) probably doesn't. I don't expect DJM to like it, but it's a great way to make sure that one of the team's best PGs is on the court at all times, and it maximizes the time Murray isn't on the court with DeRozan.3) Ginobili came off the bench and averaged 28-30 MPG in his younger days ... and he was a player who was easily fatigued. Don't see how that points to either White or Murray averaging "22ish" minutes.
I think there's a legit chance that Gay walks. He's already shown that he's not going to just take the highest offer by opting out in Sacramento despite being injured. The Warriors may end up losing one of their core "middle position" players this off-season. Do you think that if, say, Durant walks that GS will just roll over and die? Nope. They'll be trying to woo the best free-agent forward to replace him. Same is probably true if they trade away Draymond. For a guy who gave up money to try to contend, do you think that can't persuade him? If you do, I disagree. I think Gay will have his share of suitors this summer, and unless he now has different values, I think there's a good chance he moves on.I see where you're coming from but it's difficult to come up with an equation that makes sense. On one hand, you can re-sign Gay, use your draft picks however you want and still have the entire MLE to spend. Is there really a realistic scenario out there where you let Gay walk, use your assets to salary dump two or three players (in a realistic scenario, you probably would need to trade away both first rounders to even have hope of opening up $20 million) and find a player to add who makes it all worthwhile? I just don't see it. Are the Spurs one $20 million free agent away (while subtracting Gay, at least) from being a championship contender? That would need to be the case if you're going to throw away assets in a win-now move.
As far as scenarios where the team creates cap space, I agree it's more than just a little tricky. Honestly, it's something they should have started trying to work during the season had that been their goal. They probably could have off-loaded Beli and Bertans for expirings and small assets, in addition to either paying to dump Gasol or stretching his last year when they waived him. With all those things and a Mills dump completed, they could have freed up a max slot while not having a gutted roster. Now, it would be significantly harder to find trades. Teams likely wouldn't take Beli into cap space. Gasol is dead money. Dumping Mills isn't harder, but there's less payoff in it now. Do I think a legit top-level free agent could push the Spurs over the top, even minus Gay, Beli, Bertans and Mills? Yes. I trust PATFO enough to fill in cracks in that rotation. Do I think at this point going for a free agent is a better option than just reupping Gay and signing an MLE player? No. The more mid-sized contracts the team collects, the more options they have for later trades.
I'm not sure that they Spurs are anti-tank as much as Pop just thinks he can win with his core. Obviously, they haven't gone into full win-now mode, but they also haven't done the shopping around the edges that mid-tier teams can do in order to collect assets. They were supposedly aggressive in the draft last year in their attempt to trade up for Lonnie. We'll see if they try to make a similar move to acquire an impact player. They have more assets this time around with 29 and the basic assumption that an SA future first is worth more than it's been for a long time.And that's another reason why re-signing Gay makes sense: not only do they avoid wasting assets in the short-term, they keep the books clean for the long-term while remaining in playoff contention -- and given the DeRozan trade, that's their preferred route.
Personally, I'd rather the Spurs keep the tinder dry, their assets plush and wait for a better time to make a splash. With a team built around DeRozan and Aldridge, I don't see them being an "aggressive" move away from taking a big step forward. Patience, IMO.
Last edited by Chinook; 05-08-2019 at 11:45 AM.
Trade Mills and Forbes. Use MLE for another wing.
I agree that Spurs should try to keep Rudy Gay, but looking at the final 8 teams still playing this year, I think there is a team that might be interested in him. The Blazers may see him as a worthwhile risk considering their dependence on Aminu. Aminu is a more active perimeter defender but that’s about the only advantage that I see he holds over Gay. Portland may still have the ass over LA defecting to the Spurs so wouldn’t be surprised if they offered Rudy an option. I only mention the final 8 teams because of older free agents’ wanting to play for highly compe ive teams and I don’t think he would be that much of a difference maker on a team that’s just knocking on the door. Hoping he stays.
I’m happy to see it looks like you think Murray and White can co-exist on the court. Some of the prolific posters here think they have to compete for the same minutes. Maybe, we’ll see. It’s pretty clear that the best guard combos in the West right now are playing at Golden State and Portland. Here’s hoping White and Murray’s defensive skills, along with their youthfulness, will balance out a chunk of the Spurs deficiency in this part of the game.
I would be be disappointed and surprised if PATFO holds onto Belinelli, and more so if Marco wants to stay. Why would he?Also, I’d be disappointed, but not surprised if they stay with Mills. Not kidding myself though, Patty will be here.
Crater face said bringing Gay back is the team's first priority.
Expect another off season of the same. 30 year Olds seeking one last pay check here in San Antonio and PATFO willingly handing them out.
I'm perfectly fine with Mills/Belinelli/Bertans getting minutes in the regular season. But I don't think any of them are good playoff players at this point and I'm not sure Bertans ever will be. Forbes hit some big shots, I think he wins out of those guys and has higher upside as a scorer. I think if you move Rudy Gay to be the backup 4 and use the MLE on a 3&D wing you'll be good to go. Wouldn't even hate if we spent it on a backup point guard. White/Murray should both be starting imo and Forbes can be the backup SG until Walker is ready (or they can share spot minutes) but neither of them are point guards and the new could address the wing position in the draft.
I hope they get a second medical opinion on Rudy Gay's feet, before he's offered another contract. If he gets medical clearance, ok.
The team needs a real backup for LMA. That could be the spot hardest to fill.
yes and as OP says they would be 10 mil below, GS's repeater tax will be huge if Durant stays.
Damn nice write up, and a great way to look at the offseason.
The biggest problem is that the two needs you think the Spurs could address are the two types of players most in demand - rangy wings, and PF's who can work out on the perimeter and hold their own in the paint. Getting a good one of either for the MLE is going to be quite a trick.
Neither Aldridge nor DDR's contracts can be moved this year. And Pop seems to be married to Bryn and Patty. And that means that, barring some miracle, there is a group of players that is good but not quiiiite good enough. Next year's team is most likely trying to push their way into the WCF the way this year's team tried to push their way into the second round.
Bertans and Belli don't have much trade value, except that they are both expiring and their contracts at least provide some heft for matching. So could the Spurs spin off one of the young guys as a sweetener in a trade? Already said that Brynn looks off limits, and Pop's comments say that Walker is too. LW is a big question mark because of the injury and lack of exposure. That leaves White - and the way Pop effectively benched him in the playoffs sort of makes him look possible. I'd hate to lose him, but maybe if it netted one of the pieces the team really needs? White and Murray minutes look to be a logjam, in light of the carve-out minutes for Mills and Forbes. Moving one of them for a piece that fits elsewhere has to be a consideration for PATFO, even though they like both players.
The same goes for the draft. Could the Spurs use one of the young guys (White) as a sweetener to move up in the draft? A better question would be whether there is a player outside of the top 3-4 that could get minutes under Pop as a Rookie? Not likely, and the Spurs couldn't trade up nearly that far. I thought Chuma Okeke might be one - that rangy wing who could get by on his defense for a while (and they wouldn't have had to trade up for him, I don't think). I don't see any others that jump out at me.
I was pretty confident that this would be the year the Spurs bring Milutinov over. I like him even more with the way Poeltl arrived, because now the Spurs wouldn't be too dependent on him if he can't make the transition. But if I was Milutinov, I would be looking at Poeltl and thinking, "There goes my minutes." I understand a player wanting to test himself against the best. But let's face it, those guys jump the pond looking to cash a giant-sized paycheck in a couple of years. And that won't happen if they can't showcase their talents.
I wish I thought they would bring in a competent PG, and find a way to spin out Mills. It won't happen, but you can't take the dream away from me.
Last edited by ZeusWillJudge; 05-08-2019 at 11:53 AM.
Love the write up and the back and forth thought process with our posters... good stuff...
Excited for next season . future looks great ��
Unlike others i don't expect much from Murray next season, i would give Gay a one year contract and see if he bites. I don't see Gay lasting long as you say in whatever position, even power forward. He's very slow and will only get slower and a big concern injury-wise. This team as presently constracted will not do much damage going forward because we have to take into account the moves and jumps other teams will make, we don't play alone. Denver is gonna be even better next season, Sacto as well, the damn Lakers. We still don't have a franchise player to build around. The only path i see is finish these next two season as the treadmill team we have become and then without Derozan, LMA and Pop we can finally tank to get the No1 option. Unless someone from the young guys emerges as The man, i don't see any other path tbh
I really like Rudy but he could benefit by shedding 10-15 lbs. I hope we keep him but I was watching a slow motion video of Rudy making a drive to the basket and it did look like his ankles were about to explode with every step. Looks like his ankles/feet can barely support his mass.
I do not believe he will take another 1 year contract though. Rudy has shown his dedication to the team and he isn't getting any younger, Spurs will reward him with a good contract of at least 2 years this off season.
I like that move I really think Samanic is going to be a stud hope we can do this.
I don't love the idea but should we resign Danny Green???
Seems that Pop’s history has mostly been seeing his young players play out their first contract before deciding whether to let them walk, especially if they’ve earned enough trust for him to give them some PT. Just don’t remember him cutting many of them loose, unless they asked to be traded. While I laughed recently when a few here voted White as potentially having a multi year all star career, I would hate to see him go. I think that he, plus a draft pick would only net a player that’s 2 more years til we know if they fit. I like White’s BBIQ and think that he can be an adequate wing contributor when pressed into the roll. Maybe a George Hill that can shoot.
May be wishful thinking, but I don't think Mills has any guaranteed minutes next season. His playing time through this last year traces back to the plague of injuries at the start.
White, Murray, Forbes, Walker. Mix and match, for the guard rotation. Mills standing by.
My notion is that minutes assigned to Mills should have an asterisk, *if necessary.
There's another interpretation of what Pop has said about Mills. "Leader," "culture," and all that. It can be heard as consolation for a veteran who will normally be on the deep bench.
But what do I know.
Bertans is tradeable. A player with his 3pt ability is bound to be attractive to somebody. The Bulls?? Well, there are several teams. Pop's distrust of 3pt shooting won't change, and Bertans vanished in the playoffs.
If he wanted to come back, heck yeah i'd take him back.
But i'm sure Toronto will offer him a good deal.
Thanks Timvp. All said, I want either one of Mills or Beli gone however, to bring in an athletic 3 and D SF who’s ready to play. Otherwise both Murray and Demar better be hitting those 3’s 1000 a day. Next is a “Bayne” big body center who can bang and insurance for Poeltl. Poeltl needs to beefup 25 lbs of solid muscle.
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