Because I asked you first
instant deflection
Why don't you show your math?
Because I asked you first
From what I have read and thought about the best way to get the "True" number of cases is to simply take the death total and divide it by the estimated mortality rate, somewhere in the neighorhood of .005
"If X number of people died, and the rate of death for all people who get it is Y, how many people would have had the disease to produce X deaths?"
That tells you the rough number of cases about two weeks ago, since the course of the disease is about two weeks from contracting it to death in almost all cases.
Then take the growth rate and multiply that figure by the rate twice (figure transmission takes about 7 days) to find a reasonable estimate for the total cases current and past. https://rt.live/ gets you that multiplier to some degree of reasonableness.
A lot of estimation, but you get a fairly reasonable working number.
CFR for industrial countries
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavir...pickerSort=asc
I never said I calculated IFR using a super secret formula like you did.
Show your math.
I don't think so tbh.. he is that re ed.. it's ducks kind of stupidity imho
Get in here Thread, we have gone up almost a thousand since yesterday!
Update (07 July 2020):::
Trump's Corona Plague dead: 133,929
Regular Flu dead: 23+k
Spanish Flu dead: 275k
Obama's H1N1 Flu dead: 12.5k
Let us proceed...
most single-day deaths since june 10, per worldometer. just under 1000
goes without saying that this is not necessarily indicative of a trend and may just be a blip, but we are fairly within the range of time where the increase would typically be expected
200k carcasses my election day is the latest model tbqh
Pretty conservative if you as me
Given how americans treat the holidays during pandemics my prediction of 1/2 million dead by next year is looking very good
Most of the steep increases started around the 7 day period between June 16th and June 23rd, so we should clearly see the rise in deaths about 5 to 10 days from now.
thats based on a 25 day timer that starts from infection. unless you know that all these people tested positive literally the day they had the infection (as opposed to when they became symptomatic), then im not sure you can push the timetable quite that far back.
but thats just my basic intuition... not an expert obviously. i'd welcome being corrected
Give or take 25 days. We can say 3 to 4 weeks? Nonetheless, we won't be able to start seeing a clear trend for at least a few more days.
it all depends at what point in the infection cycle the influx of new cases were identified, tbh. but i generally agree that we are still in a bubble, margin of error, zone
I think the interesting question is what if there isn’t some massive e in deaths? To me, that begs a lot of harder but more interesting questions. Assume that the mortality rate remains largely unaffected (meaning, it continues to drop) or has a modest uptick (meaning it goes flat or slightly upward). What does that mean going forward? I think some really tough policy decisions will have to be made at that point about continuing to re-open the economy or not.
And for the record, I’m not saying the fatality rate will or won’t change or that COVID is not something serious (since I know some will think I’m implying something). That said, if we can show that we’re getting more effective at treating this , that’s something.
those are legit questions... and the potential implications of that could be (but i cant verify or have any data for) that a higher proportion of the new wave of cases were younger people, that the virus has gotten weaker, or we've simply done better at identifying and treating it due to more available testing letting us diagnose cases earlier, on average.
i dont have the data in front of me about hospitalization rates, etc.
and strictly looking at mortality might not tell us the whole picture, there's still a lot we dont know about potential long term effects. we already know that the virus can sit on the heart, or on neurons, etc. how long will antibodies be effective for? there's still a lot we dont know.
Last edited by spurraider21; 07-07-2020 at 09:10 PM.
Better treatments is certainly helping, but it all depends on the hospitalization rate now. If this trend continues, it won't matter what treatments we have if they can't reach people because hospitals are overwhelmed.
Where do we see this e peaking? 65k infections per day? 70? 80? 100k? It's hard not to see the death rate going back to at least what it was before if the trend continues.
do we know what the positivity rate looks like now compared to the earlier es?
This is what bad leadership gets you. The data is incomplete because we completely bungled testing early on, but I know in Texas it was about 15% at the peak of the first wave in April. Texas was doing such little testing back then though.
Well it was 22% in San Antonio last week.
Yeah it was nearly impossible to get a test early on out here unless you were 65+ and had symptoms.
They're returning to some of those restrictions, mainly being that you have to be symptomatic.
And now there are so many symptomatics that people are driving to other towns to try and get a test because testing sites are running out. We're doing nearly triple the testing we had back during the first e, yet we're STILL seeing a shortage while the positivity rate fluctuates between 15% and 20%.
That’s another thing. The positivity rate halved in Houston (22% to 11%) in about a week.
Truer words
Too bad we can't stop travel between just about everywhere else where the rates are flat or still rising. People will continue to bring it in. , some may have no choice like in the RGV where they're flying in the worst patients from because they have already reached capacity.
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