Donald G.W.B. Trump officially attacks Iran

[Winehole23]

Trump has wrecked US credibility as a Persian Gulf protector

[Winehole23]

hiring a tanker from the US to China now costs as much as a new tanker did one year ago

For a sign of just how extraordinary oil shipping costs have become, consider this: It’s now more expensive to hire a tanker from the US to China than to launch a rocket into space.

That journey costs about $80 million, compared with $74 million for a standard SpaceX Falcon 9 launch, shipbroker Gibson said this week. The same amount of money could have bought a near-identical tanker outright earlier this year.

https://gcaptain.com/global-oil-tank...se-by-the-day/

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

Trump making excuses for China and Russia, for some reason

[velik_m]

Iran says ‘deeply concerned’ over escalation between Houthis, Saudi Arabia

...
“We are deeply concerned about the developments taking place in the Arabian Peninsula,” foreign ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei tells a weekly press conference, adding that Tehran is ready “to use our good offices to help facilitate dialogue between the parties.”
...

https://www.timesofisrael.com/livebl...-saudi-arabia/

[Winehole23]

[Blake]

Awesome that we're using military money to help ship oil now. Just keeps getting better.

[Winehole23]

Awesome that we're using military money to help ship oil now. Just keeps getting better.

yeah, getting more crude oil out isn't that useful when the bottleneck is refined products, but we're still being on crude compared to prewar -- eventually crude oil stocks will be depleted too if the war doesn't end. it'll take at least a couple of years for Persian Gulf refiners to restore lost capacity and the rest of the world excluding China doesn't have much spare refining capacity. We can get plenty of heavy sour from Venezuela, but again, Gulf of Mexico refining capacity doesn't have much slack either

prices and supply stabilizing next year depends on hormuz opening back up fully -- a big if

[Winehole23]

assuming no further damage to Persian Gulf refining, the diesel crunch won't ease for about a year and adding Russian diesel to global supply is a rounding error that will not bring down prices, according to Larry Johnson

Diesel is where this hits hardest. Diesel moves the trucks, tractors, trains and ships that carry everything else, and Europe is one of the world’s dominant diesel importers. The International Energy Agency’s October report is blunt. Middle Eastern fuel exports are below half of pre-war levels, and diesel markets “will remain tight well into 2027.” The IEA does not expect lost diesel stocks to be replenished before the second half of 2027. Diesel benchmarks topped $200 a barrel in September and remain nearly double the price of crude, which is itself around $108 for Brent, up more than 75 percent from a year ago. Ukrainian drones keep hitting Russian refineries and export terminals, so Europe’s other traditional source of middle distillates is also impaired.


So when people ask me when diesel supply returns to normal, my answer is not soon. The IEA’s timeline, which does not account for sustained damage to Saudi facilities, points to the second half of 2027 at the earliest. A real recovery is at least a year away, and probably longer.
Don’t expect the Trump-Putin diesel deal to change that. As I have argued before, the Russian barrels are a rounding error. Moscow has cleared 500,000 tons for export, roughly 3.7 million barrels, with no shipping timeline. Even if every tranche Trump announced is delivered, about 4.8 million tons in total, that comes to roughly 36 million barrels spread over months. The first 300,000 tons equals less than one day of American transport diesel demand, and the full program equals less than four. Measured against the world’s lost Middle Eastern distillate exports, it is negligible. It also depends on Russian refineries that Ukrainian drones continue to hit, and on sanctioned tankers to carry it. The deal may make for a good headline. It will not move the supply curve, and so it will not bring down the price of diesel.

https://larrycjohnson.substack.com/p...-is-coming-and

[Blake]

This war will at the least be ongoing until Trump is no longer president. Can't even imagine what diesel will sell for in a year or two

[Winehole23]

Trump may end it like he ended Afghanistan: surrender to the enemy effective the year after he leaves office

[Blake]

Trump may end it like he ended Afghanistan: surrender to the enemy effective the year after he leaves office

And then blame the Dems for surrendering and keeping us in this mess

[Winehole23]

[Winehole23]

the French are reportedly already in Yanbu

*UK TO FLY MISSIONS TO DEFEND SAUDI ARABIA FROM HOUTHI ATTACKS

[Winehole23]

US embassy staff and families ordered to leave Saudi Arabia, with families of embassy staff in the United Arab Emirates, Jordan, Qatar and Bahrain also ordered to leave, diplomatic source tells AFP

[Winehole23]

State Dept says AFP got it wrong, notice is for Saudi Arabia only

[Winehole23]

Russia pledged to maintain its political and economic cooperation with Iran during Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov's visit to Tehran on Monday, as US President Donald Trump welcomed what he described as limited Russian and Chinese support for Tehran.

Trump said Moscow and Beijing had the capacity to provide Tehran with far greater assistance but had so far refrained from doing so.

“Russia could have done a lot more to help Iran. Russia's done very little for Iran,” Trump told reporters on Monday. He said China could also have provided much more assistance and described the limited help from both countries as “a very positive thing.”

Trump's remarks came as Lavrov held talks with Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and President Masoud Pezeshkian in Tehran, where Moscow reaffirmed its commitment to its strategic partnership with Iran while calling for a diplomatic solution to the regional conflict.

At a joint press conference with Araghchi, Lavrov said Russia had no intention of abandoning economic and investment agreements with Iran despite the war.
He said Russian specialists were gradually returning to work at Iran's Bushehr nuclear power plant and pointed to continued cooperation on energy and transport projects, including the planned Rasht-Astara railway.

Lavrov also said Moscow had provided humanitarian assistance during the war and would continue supplying food to Iran.

https://www.iranintl.com/en/202610197573

[Winehole23]

behind in the polls

[Winehole23]

Per the Financial Times, Netanyahu was preparing to launch a major new military offensive against the Islamic Republic earlier this month, but US President Trump intervened to prevent the operation from going ahead.

Citing three people familiar with the plans, the newspaper reported on Wednesday that the Israeli prime minister had instructed the military to prepare a sustained bombing campaign for the weekend of October 10.

[Winehole23]

[Blake]

Store prices can only hold out for so long before they jump up in correlation.

[Winehole23]

Crude oil prices were on course to book a sharp weekly gain, with Brent crude on track for gains of about $6 per barrel and WTI registering a much more modest tick higher, from around $99 per barrel on Monday to over $100 earlier today.


At the time of writing, Brent crude was trading at $114.00 per barrel, and West Texas Intermediate was changing hands for $100.40 per barrel, as hostilities in the Middle East remain front-page news for oil traders. The focus, however, seems to be on Houthi attacks on Saudi infrastructure, including Aramco facilities.


The latest news from that front was Aramco’s order for personnel evacuation from its headquarters in Dhahran, which is in the Persian Gulf, suggesting the Yemeni Houthis have some longer-distance capabilities than what they used previously, when they focused on attacks in the Red Sea and Saudi Arabia’s Red Sea ports.



Meanwhile, adding fuel to the oil price rally, Libya’s National Oil Corporation reported the shutdown of an oil pipeline that feeds oil from two fields to the Zawya export terminal. The shutdown prompted cuts in production at the two fields.
“Markets are increasingly worried about renewed escalation in the Persian Gulf, a scenario that could threaten oil flows that have so far remained remarkably resilient,” ING’s commodity strategy team wrote in a note today. “Reports suggest President Trump is considering fresh strikes on Iran, while the US is reinforcing its military presence in the region with the deployment of a second aircraft carrier,” Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey also wrote.


The analysts added that the threat of renewed escalation between the United States and Iran undermined hopes of the opposite following the U.S. midterm elections next month. As a result, the bank’s analysts revised their Brent crude price outlook for the fourth quarter, saying the previously estimated $80 average per barrel looked “unattainable”.

https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-N...structure.html

[Winehole23]

"strait is open, Iran is defeated"

[Winehole23]

Q: Your ambassador to Turkey just said that 'absolutely, there could a strike on Iran this weekend.' Have you gone back on holding off until after the midterms?

TRUMP: If that's the case, I don't know anything about it

[Winehole23]