Grades: Spurs vs. Pacers - Mar. 31

[timvp]

I don't necessarily disagree with anything you wrote.

Here are my two questions:

1) Compared to the relative disasters of 2009 and 2010, wouldn't you agree that his play in 2011 was, all things considered, a step in the right direction for Bonner considering how poorly he played in those playoffs?

2) I've never suggested that Bonner played well in the 2011 playoffs or that I would like him to see clutch-time minutes in the 2012 playoffs. I just want to know, in your opinion, how much blame Bonner deserves for losing last year's series.

My contention, which I think the numbers show clearly, is that the lion's share of the blame goes, in order, to 1) Tony 2) Tim 3) Dice 4) RJ 5) Hill.

Agree or disagree?

1) Yeah, it was a step in the right direction, but it Bonner couldn't have possibly set a lower bar

He was still damn bad, especially defensively, but it wasn't as bad as 2009 and 2010. I guess we can say Bonner has sloooowly made progress in becoming adjusted to the pressure of the playoffs. In the 2009 playoffs, he suffered a 22.6-point decline from his regular season effectiveness (judged by points per 100 possessions). In the 2010 playoffs, that "improved" to an 18.4-point decline. Last year in the playoffs, his decline was 12.5 points. So if we froze Bonner's aging process, we could expect him to play at his normal regular season level in the playoffs in about 2015

Seriously though, Bonner was better even though he became virtually unplayable because the Grizzlies were taking turns abusing him defensively. Then again, he could have slept in the center circle and he wouldn't have been much worse than 2009 and 2010 . . .

2) In hindsight, it's really difficult to figure out who deserves how much blame. During the series, I thought Parker deserved most of the blame but I've softened on that a little bit because: A) His PER over the last three games was ~21 so it's not like he was failing to produce. B) 2011 Parker relied more on Ginobili than I think anyone realized. His plus/minus during the regular season was below zero when not playing next to Ginobili. So when Ginobili was less than 100% in the playoffs, it shouldn't have been too surprising that Parker struggled.

I guess my order would be:

1. TP & TD
3. RJ
4. Hill
5. Dice
6. Bonner
7. Neal

Blair and Splitter really didn't play enough to blame them too much for the loss (both played 50 minutes in 6 games). Neal gets the nod over Bonner because of that shot and because he was a rookie and shouldn't have had the expectations of Bonner.

And even though Ginobili had a perfectly valid excuse due to his broken arm, his Game 6 performance was shockingly passive for an elimination game. Two assists, two free throw attempts and 2-for-8 on three-pointers? I would have never expected Ginobili to go out with a whimper like that, tbh.




Edit: Even though it doesn't look like anyone read this thread, those numbers make it pretty obvious what happened last year. The 2011 team was built around Ginobili. When he got hurt, it was over. If the Spurs were going to do anything in the playoffs, it was going to be with Ginobili carrying them. When he broke his arm, the Spurs became a .500 team at best.

[TheSkeptic]

Timvp has once again summed up my position on that one.

I'd also blame Pop for not adjusting but I more or less agree with his list of players who caused the loss.

[letmk]

And if Shane Battier/Zach Randolph don't hit incredibly timely clutch 3s down the end and if Manu had played game 1, we may have won that game and the series could have been 2-0 SA to start.

I think you're vastly exaggerating the extent to which the Grizzlies beat us. Actually, scratch "I think." You are vastly exaggerating to the extent where I'm skeptical if you even watched the series.

Memphis won both games 1 and 3 by 3 points each. That's a play here or there. That's an extra shot made (for the spurs) and a single extra possession of good defense (4 or 5 point swing), and it could've been a Spurs win.

Going into last year's first-round series with the Spurs, the Grizzlies has never won a single playoff game. I think the lack of confidence or even disbelief plays a big role in the relative close scores.

Say if Grizzlies were like us with past playoff successes under belt, I believe what they've shown on court are good enough to sweep us.

Of course you can always say that confidence is part of what a team is. However, their sheer performance on court is much better than ours.

[roycrikside]

Lets clear things up a bit. If you're strictly arguing about the 2011 playoffs, then the entire team played poorly including Bonner. If you're talking about this season, you would rather play Bonner more then Splitter? That's what I'm getting from your posts, correct me if I'm wrong.

For the record, I would prefer the minutes allocation to go from Duncan getting the most, to Splitter, Diaw, Bonner and Blair getting the least.

I apologize if I've given that impression. While I think statistically that Bonner and Splitter are both a wash, personally, based in part on Bonner's playoff history and part in more defensive/grinding nature of basketball, I agree with you. I'd have Duncan first and Splitter second. I don't really have a preference between Bonner or Diaw for 3rd/4th tbh. But yes, Blair last. Definitely last, as in DNP-CD.

I like Blair a lot but his weaknesses are clear and obvious. If our team was a low tier playoff team or worse, I would play Blair more because hes got some potential left. But as of right now, we can't afford to develop him by letting him make the same mistakes over and over.

Yup.

Obviously this rings true. We win by our superstars and we die by our superstars. But its not as simple as "bashing role players."

First of all, the big 3 have all made their names by being winners and compe ors in the playoffs. A few bad seasons of inconsistent play isn't going to erase their playoff glory. Meanwhile, Bonner has struggled for at least the past 3 years of playoff basketball. This goes beyond "bashing" (but more like criticizing) role players but identifying a trend.

I do have some faith in Bonner this year. Our team is much deeper and filled with more weapons. The pressure isn't on him to be productive like last season. Also, Bonner isn't a one trick pony this time around. Hes playing nice defense and can catch some defenders off guard with his dribble drive. With that said, I wouldn't play him more then 18 minutes a game during the playoffs.

I agree, Tim, Manu and Tony have all earned lifetime immunity several times over. Still, criticizing a couple of them for losing a playoff series (as people incorrectly do with Manu against Dallas in 2006) isn't bashing them, in my mind. You can point out when a star plays badly without being a hater. There is nothing those three guys can ever do to make me hate them.

[roycrikside]

Thanks LJ, you nailed it.

[jjktkk]

Whats diiferent, is now the Spurs have Diaw. The million dollar question is, will Pop trust him in the playoffs? Will he trust Splitter?

[Brazil]

1) Yeah, it was a step in the right direction, but it Bonner couldn't have possibly set a lower bar

He was still damn bad, especially defensively, but it wasn't as bad as 2009 and 2010. I guess we can say Bonner has sloooowly made progress in becoming adjusted to the pressure of the playoffs. In the 2009 playoffs, he suffered a 22.6-point decline from his regular season effectiveness (judged by points per 100 possessions). In the 2010 playoffs, that "improved" to an 18.4-point decline. Last year in the playoffs, his decline was 12.5 points. So if we froze Bonner's aging process, we could expect him to play at his normal regular season level in the playoffs in about 2015

Seriously though, Bonner was better even though he became virtually unplayable because the Grizzlies were taking turns abusing him defensively. Then again, he could have slept in the center circle and he wouldn't have been much worse than 2009 and 2010 . . .

2) In hindsight, it's really difficult to figure out who deserves how much blame. During the series, I thought Parker deserved most of the blame but I've softened on that a little bit because: A) His PER over the last three games was ~21 so it's not like he was failing to produce. B) 2011 Parker relied more on Ginobili than I think anyone realized. His plus/minus during the regular season was below zero when not playing next to Ginobili. So when Ginobili was less than 100% in the playoffs, it shouldn't have been too surprising that Parker struggled.

I guess my order would be:

1. TP & TD
3. RJ
4. Hill
5. Dice
6. Bonner
7. Neal

Blair and Splitter really didn't play enough to blame them too much for the loss (both played 50 minutes in 6 games). Neal gets the nod over Bonner because of that shot and because he was a rookie and shouldn't have had the expectations of Bonner.

And even though Ginobili had a perfectly valid excuse due to his broken arm, his Game 6 performance was shockingly passive for an elimination game. Two assists, two free throw attempts and 2-for-8 on three-pointers? I would have never expected Ginobili to go out with a whimper like that, tbh.




Edit: Even though it doesn't look like anyone read this thread, those numbers make it pretty obvious what happened last year. The 2011 team was built around Ginobili. When he got hurt, it was over. If the Spurs were going to do anything in the playoffs, it was going to be with Ginobili carrying them. When he broke his arm, the Spurs became a .500 team at best.

the main reason we lost this serie ? it seems I am the only one to think that but I don't care, last year the Grizz was the better team even with a 100% manu.

[ElNono]

What's also deceiving about Bonner is his consistency in numbers in the regular season... despite his percentages, teammates or minutes changing in the last 3 seasons, he's a consistent 7/3 regular season guy...

Obviously, no such thing in the playoffs...

[ElNono]

the main reason we lost this serie ? it seems I am the only one to think that but I don't care, last year the Grizz was the better team even with a 100% manu.

100% agree... we didn't play defense, and they did...

[Brazil]

100% agree... we didn't play defense, and they did...

and they are going to be better this year.. they are all healthy. I saw the game against OKC, if Mayo keeps on providing a spark with the second unit they are going to be deadly