Report: Spurs Express Interest in Monta Ellis

[Calispursfan11]

lol A ball stoping, 3 point chucking, no defense playing undersized 2 guard.

Ellis will not help the Spurs. Agree with your assessment. He's a chucker and ball hog of epic proportions.

[Bill_Brasky]

So I guess none of you bothered to look at those numbers?

The worst thing about Ellis isn't even his terrible shooting. What it is we'll get to later, but first:

TS%

Manu vs Monta

12/13: 560 vs 493
11/12: 668 vs 493 (518 for GS)
10/11: 581 vs 509
9/10: 584 vs 536

3 point shooting:

Monta is a career .318 three-point shooter vs Manu's .372 This season Monta Ellis shot a pathetic 28 pct attempting 3.8 per game, yes that's worse than Manu's 35 pct attempting 3.9.

Overall he performs this shooting damage (mostly to his own teams) averaging 16.4 field goal attempts during his career. Manu is at 10.6 and of course with a much better true shooting percentage.

Btw Ellis averages more than 3 turnovers per game 5 different seasons during his career. Including this one at 3.1.

oRTG (Offensive Rating, look it up!)

Manu vs Monta

12/13: 107 vs 101 (yes even this season he is better than Ellis)
11/12: 125 vs 101
10/11: 116 vs 107
09/10: 118 vs 99

Career: 115 vs 104

Out of that and dRTG (defensive rating) you can calculate an overall win% Ellis: 11/12: .495 10/11: .531 09/10: .471

If not for the widespread delusion here, it should be needless to say that Manu completely blows those numbers away with: .709, .677 and .705

How about some

PER:

Manu vs Monta

12/13: 19 vs 16.2
11/12: 24.1 vs 17.5
10/11: 21.7 vs 18.6
09/10: 22.5 vs 16.7

Yes there is some value in Ellis assists (though Manu ast% is usually better) but he dominates the ball and volume so much that with his well below league average shooting that his teams are often better with him off the floor.

Manu is a much better offensive player while Ellis does his worst damage to his own teams.

The worst thing about Ellis is actually harder to find in various stats. It's on the defensive end of things. Now obviously Manu also blows him away in defensive rating and in some of the new plus minus stats like RAPM (which for many years, killing the noise, has had Manu consistently as one of the best players in the league) but Ellis arms are so short that he can't guard any shooting guards and for him not to be a major liability you'd have to pair him with big PGs who can guard the other team's twos. The list of starting point guards he can be paired with is actually non existant and partnerships with Curry and Jennings were a disaster. Add that incurable problem to his offensive issues and the guy can arguably be unplayable. That is if you want to win basketball games.

Of course frustrations with Manu can be excused and is sometimes perfectly understandable, but when it's gotten to a point where whatever it is, ignorance, stupidity or lame internet-hate, has gotten so delusional that those very people think MONTA ELLIS of all people is a better basketball player than Ginobili and think a team would be better with Monta than Manu, then it's just inexcucable.

But here is to your delusions^^^^^^

Most of that doesn't matter for two big reasons. 1: Manu wasn't 37 4 years ago, so his stats outside of last year don't mean a god damn thing. You can throw everything Manu did outside of last year right out the window because he isn't magically going to get several years younger for those stats to be relevant anymore.

Secondly, how bad Manu actually is is somewhat hidden by the fact that he's on a good team. Monta Ellis played for a ty team which means his stats (percentages mostly, which is all you posted) are going to be worse because not only is the defense keyed on him but he has little help.

Manu is surrounded by good shooters and defensive gurus on a team with a great system where he doesn't even have to play very many minutes, and when he does it's against a ty second unit most of the time. Ellis has only played for ty teams. Offensive and defensive ratings, while nice, more reflect the team they're on than the player themselves. The Spurs as a team have an offensive ratings 5 points higher than the Bucks. Last year it was 6 1/2 points higher. With the Warriors, the Spurs had a 3 points higher offensive rating, but the team at least wasn't awful, which is why Ellis' offensive rating was higher with them.

Speaking of Manu's age and skill regression, notice how even the stats you cherry picked because those were the main (possibly only) stats that were in Manu's favor, all regressed to the lowest points in Manu's career since his first and second seasons. A trend which at best we can hope stops rather than continues.

Instead of cherry picking stats which benefit Manu, let's look at all of them.

Games missed since 2011:

Ginobili: 56Ellis: 6

Turnovers per 36 last year (Ellis plays more minutes, so this is more fair than per game stats):

Ginobili: 3.4
Ellis: 3.0

Minutes played, Ginobili/Ellis:

'10: 28.7 vs 41.4
'11: 30.3 vs 40.3
'12: 23.3 vs 36.6
'13: 23.2 vs 37.5

Btw, Ellis led the NBA in minutes in '10 and '11. Manu wasn't even close.


Turnover % Manu/Ellis:

'12: 16.3 vs 13.2
'13: 17.3 vs 13.7


Oh and Manu's playoff stats:

'12: 17.0 PER
'13: 16.5 PER


'12: 19.8 Turnover%
'13: 19.4 Turnover%

'11: 3.5 TOs/36
'12: 3.9 TOs/36
'13: 3.6 TOs/36

'11: 107 Offensive rating
'12: 106 Offensive rating
'13: 102 Offensive rating

Notice the trend of tier PER, tier offensive ratings, increased turnovers.


Yeah, so not only is it not out of the question to expect Manu to be even worse, but it's not out of the question to expect more from Ellis if he got to play in the cushy, king-like mid 20s minutes per game situation Manu has been in rather than have to be a in 40+ minute per game workhorse for ty teams running their offense and taking the brunt of the opposing team's defensive attention all game.

I'd happily take my chances with the 27 year old Ellis with huge room for improvement considering the great and much easier than what he's used to situation he'd be inheriting here, rather than an aging player who's nowhere near what he used to be and completely let his team and Spurs fans everywhere down in the Finals. Yes, he WAS great. Years ago. Now he isn't. Now he's steadily declining and openly talking about how he hates rehabbing and wants to hang it up.

Feel free to post more stats of years ago though. As if your argument is if we should trade current Ginobili for Ginobili from years ago. Anyone would, but it isn't a possibility. It's current ty Manu, or take a shot on a 27 year old athletic player who can both easily take Manu's place or fill in for Parker should disaster strike.

Ellis adds more potential to the team. Definitely has holes in his game (bad defense for starters), but his offense and ballhandling aren't things I'm very concerned with. His efficiency would clearly go up if he got Manu's role, and at least he wouldn't have to guard stars for 40 minutes a game anymore.

Manu is just getting worse and played worse and worse as the postseason went on last year. PER went down, efficiency went down, GameScore went down (really far down), turnover% went up. Just about everything got worse and worse, until he finally sucked 5/7 games including a huge disaster game in game 6 which cost us the le.

[spurraider21]

I have no alternate accounts... NONE... timvp can confirm, tbh...

that was actually a necessary disclaimer after that juggernaut of a post

[dg7md]

I hope we get him, he'd be a better starter than Green, who has choked profusely in the playoffs the last two years.

[dylankerouac]

Most of that doesn't matter for two big reasons. 1: Manu wasn't 37 4 years ago, so his stats outside of last year don't mean a god damn thing. You can throw everything Manu did outside of last year right out the window because he isn't magically going to get several years younger for those stats to be relevant anymore.

Secondly, how bad Manu actually is is somewhat hidden by the fact that he's on a good team. Monta Ellis played for a ty team which means his stats (percentages mostly, which is all you posted) are going to be worse because not only is the defense keyed on him but he has little help.

Manu is surrounded by good shooters and defensive gurus on a team with a great system where he doesn't even have to play very many minutes, and when he does it's against a ty second unit most of the time. Ellis has only played for ty teams. Offensive and defensive ratings, while nice, more reflect the team they're on than the player themselves. The Spurs as a team have an offensive ratings 5 points higher than the Bucks. Last year it was 6 1/2 points higher. With the Warriors, the Spurs had a 3 points higher offensive rating, but the team at least wasn't awful, which is why Ellis' offensive rating was higher with them.

Speaking of Manu's age and skill regression, notice how even the stats you cherry picked because those were the main (possibly only) stats that were in Manu's favor, all regressed to the lowest points in Manu's career since his first and second seasons. A trend which at best we can hope stops rather than continues.

Instead of cherry picking stats which benefit Manu, let's look at all of them.

Games missed since 2011:

Ginobili: 56Ellis: 6

Turnovers per 36 last year (Ellis plays more minutes, so this is more fair than per game stats):

Ginobili: 3.4
Ellis: 3.0

Minutes played, Ginobili/Ellis:

'10: 28.7 vs 41.4
'11: 30.3 vs 40.3
'12: 23.3 vs 36.6
'13: 23.2 vs 37.5

Btw, Ellis led the NBA in minutes in '10 and '11. Manu wasn't even close.


Turnover % Manu/Ellis:

'12: 16.3 vs 13.2
'13: 17.3 vs 13.7


Oh and Manu's playoff stats:

'12: 17.0 PER
'13: 16.5 PER


'12: 19.8 Turnover%
'13: 19.4 Turnover%

'11: 3.5 TOs/36
'12: 3.9 TOs/36
'13: 3.6 TOs/36

'11: 107 Offensive rating
'12: 106 Offensive rating
'13: 102 Offensive rating

Notice the trend of tier PER, tier offensive ratings, increased turnovers.


Yeah, so not only is it not out of the question to expect Manu to be even worse, but it's not out of the question to expect more from Ellis if he got to play in the cushy, king-like mid 20s minutes per game situation Manu has been in rather than have to be a in 40+ minute per game workhorse for ty teams running their offense and taking the brunt of the opposing team's defensive attention all game.

I'd happily take my chances with the 27 year old Ellis with huge room for improvement considering the great and much easier than what he's used to situation he'd be inheriting here, rather than an aging player who's nowhere near what he used to be and completely let his team and Spurs fans everywhere down in the Finals. Yes, he WAS great. Years ago. Now he isn't. Now he's steadily declining and openly talking about how he hates rehabbing and wants to hang it up.

Feel free to post more stats of years ago though. As if your argument is if we should trade current Ginobili for Ginobili from years ago. Anyone would, but it isn't a possibility. It's current ty Manu, or take a shot on a 27 year old athletic player who can both easily take Manu's place or fill in for Parker should disaster strike.

Ellis adds more potential to the team. Definitely has holes in his game (bad defense for starters), but his offense and ballhandling aren't things I'm very concerned with. His efficiency would clearly go up if he got Manu's role, and at least he wouldn't have to guard stars for 40 minutes a game anymore.

Manu is just getting worse and played worse and worse as the postseason went on last year. PER went down, efficiency went down, GameScore went down (really far down), turnover% went up. Just about everything got worse and worse, until he finally sucked 5/7 games including a huge disaster game in game 6 which cost us the le.

Good post.

[dallasmaverickslose]

I really hope we pass on this scrub. Anyone who thinks that he'd make us better underestimating how inefficient of a player he is.

[Chinook]

I hope we get him, he'd be a better starter than Green, who has choked profusely in the playoffs the last two years.

Good one.

[spurraider21]

monta ellis is a lower-middle class man's allen iverson. lets stop drooling over him. if we absolutely can't land anybody else and he is fine with playing a bench role, then , what choice do we have?

[dallasmaverickslose]

monta ellis is a lower-middle class man's allen iverson. lets stop drooling over him. if we absolutely can't land anybody else and he is fine with playing a bench role, then , what choice do we have?

Haha, A.I. is leaps and bound better than Monta Ellis. It's not even close.

[TheGreatYacht]

Most of that doesn't matter for two big reasons. 1: Manu wasn't 37 4 years ago, so his stats outside of last year don't mean a god damn thing. You can throw everything Manu did outside of last year right out the window because he isn't magically going to get several years younger for those stats to be relevant anymore.

Secondly, how bad Manu actually is is somewhat hidden by the fact that he's on a good team. Monta Ellis played for a ty team which means his stats (percentages mostly, which is all you posted) are going to be worse because not only is the defense keyed on him but he has little help.

Manu is surrounded by good shooters and defensive gurus on a team with a great system where he doesn't even have to play very many minutes, and when he does it's against a ty second unit most of the time. Ellis has only played for ty teams. Offensive and defensive ratings, while nice, more reflect the team they're on than the player themselves. The Spurs as a team have an offensive ratings 5 points higher than the Bucks. Last year it was 6 1/2 points higher. With the Warriors, the Spurs had a 3 points higher offensive rating, but the team at least wasn't awful, which is why Ellis' offensive rating was higher with them.

Speaking of Manu's age and skill regression, notice how even the stats you cherry picked because those were the main (possibly only) stats that were in Manu's favor, all regressed to the lowest points in Manu's career since his first and second seasons. A trend which at best we can hope stops rather than continues.

Instead of cherry picking stats which benefit Manu, let's look at all of them.

Games missed since 2011:

Ginobili: 56Ellis: 6

Turnovers per 36 last year (Ellis plays more minutes, so this is more fair than per game stats):

Ginobili: 3.4
Ellis: 3.0

Minutes played, Ginobili/Ellis:

'10: 28.7 vs 41.4
'11: 30.3 vs 40.3
'12: 23.3 vs 36.6
'13: 23.2 vs 37.5

Btw, Ellis led the NBA in minutes in '10 and '11. Manu wasn't even close.


Turnover % Manu/Ellis:

'12: 16.3 vs 13.2
'13: 17.3 vs 13.7


Oh and Manu's playoff stats:

'12: 17.0 PER
'13: 16.5 PER


'12: 19.8 Turnover%
'13: 19.4 Turnover%

'11: 3.5 TOs/36
'12: 3.9 TOs/36
'13: 3.6 TOs/36

'11: 107 Offensive rating
'12: 106 Offensive rating
'13: 102 Offensive rating

Notice the trend of tier PER, tier offensive ratings, increased turnovers.


Yeah, so not only is it not out of the question to expect Manu to be even worse, but it's not out of the question to expect more from Ellis if he got to play in the cushy, king-like mid 20s minutes per game situation Manu has been in rather than have to be a in 40+ minute per game workhorse for ty teams running their offense and taking the brunt of the opposing team's defensive attention all game.

I'd happily take my chances with the 27 year old Ellis with huge room for improvement considering the great and much easier than what he's used to situation he'd be inheriting here, rather than an aging player who's nowhere near what he used to be and completely let his team and Spurs fans everywhere down in the Finals. Yes, he WAS great. Years ago. Now he isn't. Now he's steadily declining and openly talking about how he hates rehabbing and wants to hang it up.

Feel free to post more stats of years ago though. As if your argument is if we should trade current Ginobili for Ginobili from years ago. Anyone would, but it isn't a possibility. It's current ty Manu, or take a shot on a 27 year old athletic player who can both easily take Manu's place or fill in for Parker should disaster strike.

Ellis adds more potential to the team. Definitely has holes in his game (bad defense for starters), but his offense and ballhandling aren't things I'm very concerned with. His efficiency would clearly go up if he got Manu's role, and at least he wouldn't have to guard stars for 40 minutes a game anymore.

Manu is just getting worse and played worse and worse as the postseason went on last year. PER went down, efficiency went down, GameScore went down (really far down), turnover% went up. Just about everything got worse and worse, until he finally sucked 5/7 games including a huge disaster game in game 6 which cost us the le.

I'm sure someone wasted their time reading KiddK's post...but I've heard that ty song one too many times to bother with listening again

Denial mode.

[tesseractive]

Ellis will not help the Spurs. Agree with your assessment. He's a chucker and ball hog of epic proportions.

There have been bad-team chuckers that have become effective role players on good teams before -- as long as they're willing to buy in. Basically, you give them the red light from spots on the floor where they suck, get them some open shots to increase their overall efficiency, and convince them to trust the pass instead of forcing a bad shot.

[dg7md]

Gary Neal is one of the most notorious chuckers in the NBA but he was actually a huge help for us in the Finals.

[rascal]

I wanna say lets get him just for the meltdowns I know for sure this board would be having after a Monta Ellis typical 6-20 FG

He won't be getting that volume of shots.

[benefactor]

Denial mode.

Keep quiet girl. Men are talking basketball.

[FireMicoHalili]

Re > JR Swish > Ellis

[Leetonidas]

I hope we get him, he'd be a better starter than Green, who has choked profusely in the playoffs the last two years.

Green just set an NBA finals record, I would hardly call that choking. Just because a great defensive team decided a role player wasn't going to beat them doesn't mean he choked. Spurs would have never been up 3-2 without him

[Cowboys_Wear_Spurs]

monta ellis is a lower-middle class man's allen iverson. lets stop drooling over him. if we absolutely can't land anybody else and he is fine with playing a bench role, then , what choice do we have?

I don't think anyone is drooling over him. I am not, I can tell you that. But the Spurs NEED another playmaker on this team PERIOD. I doubt there are going to get someone like Harden this offseason. Ellis, Evans, Mayo etc are guys I hope the Spurs at least looked at b/c the Spurs can't rely on just Parker to carry this team and create. He needs someone to help shoulder the load.

[kaji157]

To say the truth i prefer OJ Mayo.
Can really help sustain Manu in the team, and brings more to the table other than scoring.
Seems like a player we can build on, Monta not so much.

[Baam]

OJ Mayo can't play point next to Manu, this is very hard to find the right fit, it basically comes down to Tyreke Evans and Ellis.

[K-State Spur]

I'd happily take my chances with the 27 year old Ellis with huge room for improvement

He may only be 27, but he's also been in the league for 9 years. He is what he is at this point.

[Knoxxx]

The problem I have liking Eliis is mainly the potential asking price around $10 million. Jarret Jack seems like a more economical version for the Spurs' needs.

Mouth and Kid K, please run the same analysis for Jack.

[tim_duncan_fan]

We're not getting Monta Ellis or anyone else of note. We're coming back with the same team next year.

[Budkin]

Spurs will stay pat. Maybe give Bonner a contract extension but that's all.

[cd98]

Ellis will be too expensive for the Spurs. They desperately need someone that can adequately shoot, pass, and handle so that Parker can get more rest this year. They need a serious upgrade here and it is worth spending the money.

[dg7md]

Green just set an NBA finals record, I would hardly call that choking. Just because a great defensive team decided a role player wasn't going to beat them doesn't mean he choked. Spurs would have never been up 3-2 without him

Where was he when we actually needed his shooting in game 6 and 7? I'm not convinced making two shots in the last two games wasn't choking. He was open for quite a few shots in the last two games.