Jeff Masters seems to think this one could be a Cat#4 at landfall........ "As Rita continues on into the Gulf of Mexico tonight, continued strengthening is expected. The shear over her has dropped below 5 knots, and may decrease further. The upper level outflow has improved considerably today, and Rita now has a more circular and symmetric appearance with excellent outflow on all sides. The water under Rita will remain in the 30 - 31C range until Wednesday morning, then cool off to 29 - 30C over the middle of the Gulf of Mexico, where the cooler waters stirred up to the surface by Hurricane Katrina still remain. These cooler waters should keep Rita in the strong Category 2 to strong Category 3 range as she moves across the central Gulf. Once Rita approaches the coast of Texas, the cold water wake of Katrina ends and water temperatures warm up to about 30C, which may allow some intensification. Rita will be a Category 2, 3, or 4 hurricane by landfall in Texas on Saturday. The 8am of the GFS model indicates Rita may be a Category 4 at landfall." Damn!!!!
Thats the best the storm has looked at any point in its lifetime. It's going to blow up overnight.
I didn't think a Cat 4 was possible, but I think the storm just convinced me. This season is pretty ing unprecedented.
Houston is going to be in hurting status if that yellow track happens. The ing surge would go right up the shipping channel, and the runoff would have nowhere to go. Flood city.
Houston and Galveston will be hurting anyway if it goes in at Matagorda Bay. They will be on the north side of the storm.
Isn't that what Katrina did? I woke up thursday (I think) and saw it was nearly CAT 5.
That was the day before it made landfall (Sunday)
How will civilization persist along the third coast if this is hurricane season is just the start of crazy ass weather patterns we're about to see for the next 20 or 30 years?
This is not going to pull a Katrina. It just isn't. Katrina was something we'd all be lucky to see again in our lifetime. Or unlucky depending on how you look at it.
Mandatory evac for Galveston, starting tomorrow morning as per MSNBC.
As of 10pm CDT Hurricane Rita has wind of 110 mph gusting to 135 and the minimum pressure 965 mb
Katrina was barely a CAT 1 when it hit South Florida.
This thing is over Florida as a CAT 2.
and that has absolutely no bearing on anything.
And it never went over Florida.
So it being a cat 2 before entering the gulf has no bearing? So when it hits the even warmer waters that lay ahead, it's gonna get weaker?
Its outer bands are.
You're an idiot. Do you even follow these things closely, or are you just talking out of your ass?
Katrina was the storm of the century in all categories, formation, strength, damaged caused, etc etc. RITA is not Katrina II. Though she is getting into "Major Hurricane" status with size and strength, she's still in the shadows of Katrina. The Galveston area is already evacuating, the devestation is not going to be nearly as much as Katrina because they are better prepared. When Katrina was CAT 3 she had a pressure of 950mb, do you realize that with Rita right now at a CAT 2/3 she's still at 965mb? Or do you even know what that means? Sure, Rita is gonna blow up to a 4 probably by tomorrow night, but EVEN THEN you won't be able to compare her to Katrina.
Do you realize how huge this thing is?? Of course the outerbands are going to hit land! BUT when talking of hurricanes "going over" or "hitting" someplace, they are talking about the center of the storm AKA the EYE.
Just because this storm enters the Gulf at a stronger catagory than Katrina does not mean it can reach the same intensity. The intensity of a hurricane is not certain to go up as long as it is over water. There are several factors which include surface temp, shear, and air preasure in the upper levels.
So, it really means nothing on its own. If conditions were the way before Katrina came into the Gulf, then it would be a comparison you could make, but otherwise it is just foolish.
And the outer bands are just that: the outer bands of a storm. The storm center has never traversed over land. That is the reason it is still a catagory 2 storm. And if you want to get even more technical about things, Katrina was a tropical storm when it entered the Gulf.
So, now that I've explained it to you again, will you please stfu with the comparisons?
I won't really get much of it, maybe some rain.
Hurricane Rita Discussion Number 14
Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on September 20, 2005
data from an Air Force Reserve unit recon aircraft at 21/0020z in
the northeast quadrant indicated 700 mb flight-level winds of 103
kt...roughly 93 kt surface winds. Doppler radar velocities from Key
West have been as high as 113 kt at 9500 feet in spots...with the
majority of the highest values in the 105-107 kt range...which
equals about 95 kt surface winds. A recon pass through the 28 nmi
diameter eye at 0204z indicated a surface pressure of 965 mb...
which roughly equals 95 kt. Therefore...the initial intensity has
been increased to 95 kt...or just below major hurricane strength.
The initial motion is 275/11. Rita is expected to continue moving a
little north of due west for the next 36-48 hours as the strong
ridge to the north remains intact along the Gulf Coast and into
central and northern Texas. The 18z GFS and GFS-ensemble models
have shifted eastward to near the Texas-Louisiana border. However
...Both models were forecasting the 21/00z 500 mb heights across
Texas to decrease by 20 meters...when in fact... 21/00z upper-air
data indicate The Heights did not change and the mid-level high
over northwest Texas has remained quite strong with heights near
6000 meters. As a result...less weight was palced on the GFS model
...Since it appears to be decreasing the strength of the ridge too
quickly...the official forecast track is just an update and
extension of the previous advisory track...and is close to the NHC
model consensus.
The previous advisory indicating rapid intensification for the next
24 hours appears to be on track. During the past 14 hours...the
central pressure has decreased 20 mb...or at a rate of about 2
Dvorak T-numbers per 24 hours. While such a large pressure fall
trend rarely occurs for more than 24 hours...the very favorable
upper-level outflow pattern and 30c-31c SSTs beneath Rita suggest
that rapid intensification should continue for at least another 24
hours. A poleward outflow channel is well established with outflow
ac ulating into a large upper-level low...or mass sink...east of
the Bahamas. In addition... an equatorward outflow channel also
appears to be developing. Given the dual outflow pattern that is
expected to persist for the next 36-48 hours...strengthening into a
category 5 hurricane is a distinct possibility. By 72 hours... a
gradual increase in the southwesterly vertical shear is expected to
bring about some weakening. However...the GFS-based SHIPS model
that is indicating 25-30 kt of shear may be including the winds
associated with the strong outflow pattern depicted by the model.
This would mean that the GFS shear is too high...and thus...the
sharp GFS weakening of Rita down to 99 kt at landfall would be
premature. The official intensity forecast leans closer to the FSU
superensemble intensity forecast of 122 kt in 48 hours and 126 kt
in 60 hours.
Forecaster Stewart
The outflow pattern that is developing is damn near ideal. It is making the storm so efficent that it may not need as much instability at the surface (from the sea surface temps) to get stronger. If we see another catagory five storm develop in the Gulf I don't know what to say. This is totaly unprecedented. So many things are coming together it is flat out amazing.
This is akin to waking up to a total eclipse of the sun one day, and then having another one the following week. Things just don't line up this perfectly very often much less 2 times in less than a month or twice in the same hurricane season.
While I doubt this storm would reach the intensity of Katrina, I never would have imagined that it reaching catagory five status was a "distinct possibility". After watching the storm organize itself tonight I was pretty sure it would reach catagory 4 status but I didn't think (and really, I still don't think) it would reach much above a minimal 4.
The other thing I noticed in that discussion was the information on the GFS and why it shifted track back to the east. It was starting to erode the ridge faster and hence it shifted the track to the east, but the ridge hasn't begun to erode and has in fact increased so that can be discounted.
In other words, the last run of the GFS isn't verifying and can probably be taken with a big grain of salt.
This has a trickle down effect on the rest of the models because they all use GFS information and prediction in their own predictions. The GFS is what is known as a global model and basically does exactly what it sounds like it does. It predicts the weather for the entire atmosphere. The other models are more specific to the storms or smaller areas and use the GFS information for the surrounding environment.
So what that all means is that if the GFS is off, the next model runs using GFS information will be off. So even though the models have shifted more to the TX LA border, the NHC has not shifted the track because of this.
This is the latest run from the NAM model.
im going to pray
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