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Oh, here is a goodie. Time to rethink this?
Correct on both counts.
Oh, here is a goodie. Time to rethink this?
Also correct.
This is absolutely fascinating reading.
It's alright to revisit older threads and see how accurate predictions were, it lends credibility to predictions about today and helps weed out the hacks...Zounds. RG may have been on to something.
Ok, sorry that was too self-congratulatory.
up 100% in three years? Damn right ironic when you were trying to somehow claim the silly liberals wrong when oil was down below $50.Bump for the irony
LinkNEW YORK (AP) — Oil futures blasted to a new record over $122 a barrel Tuesday, gaining momentum as investors bought on a forecast of much higher prices and on any news hinting at supply shortages. Retail gas prices edged lower, but appear poised to rise to new records of their own in coming weeks.
A new Goldman Sachs prediction that oil prices could rise to $150 to $200 within two years seemed to motivate much of Tuesday's buying, although a falling dollar and increasing concerns about declining crude production in Mexico and Russia contributed, analysts say.
The Energy Department raised its oil and gasoline price forecasts, but also predicted that high prices will cut demand more than previously thought.
..............
Oil prices have nearly doubled from about $62 a barrel a year ago, which Goldman sees as a sign that the world is in the midst of a "super e" in oil prices. Analyst Arjun Murti said in a research note released Monday that prices would ultimately force demand to fall sharply.
Don't feed the trolls, before the Bush Administration controlled Treasury Dept. started messing with the value of our currency the price of oil went up and down...
Dan, you need to compare that graph with other commodities like gold, and with the value of the dollar too. You will see some pretty good correlations. Then with all the other activities that influence money, please tell us how it is president Bush's policies rather than other factors like the trade agreements made before 2001.Don't feed the trolls, before the Bush Administration controlled Treasury Dept. started messing with the value of our currency the price of oil went up and down...
Policies take time to show change. It is not clear that the change started say 2 years after president Bush took office. To blame it on president Bush is clear bias against the man.
When did we start draining our economy to China?
I didn't find what I was looking for but I did find we are about 21% of China's exports for 2007 numbers. China has a trade balance about $262.2 billion positive for them. Considering other nations protect their trade balance and we don't, I will assume we lose $150 billion to $250 billion annually to China. This is just one factor of many that you cannot simply blame president Bush for. I found the 2006 trade deficit for us to be $763.6 billion.
When did all this free trade start?
Hit Americans with European prices, $8/gal, and see how below turns into a stampede.
Of course, Detroit has anticipated and has complete range of 40 mpg cars as well as Detroit has accepted global warming!!
http://www.boston.com/news/local/mas...heir_guzzlers/
Like the policy of "get bin Laden dead or alive"?
Still waiting on that policy to go through...
Seven years later and that f***er is still breathing.
Well, I believe our currency has been artificially strong for some time in the world market. I believe it is possible that once it finally takes it's proper place in the world market. that our gas will be about 75% of what they pay in the Euro countries. It will be the same minus the differences in taxes in my opinion.
Better late than never........
Except in this case.
Damn, just when I saw gas actually go down a few cents the price of oil just hit a new high!!
139.01 a barrel.
gee, i hope now the Lieberman-Warner bill will pass........and that Warner is a running mate Obamessiah is looking at. joy!
Investors' Growing Appe e for Oil Evades Market Limits
Trading Loophole for Wall Street Speculators Is Driving Up Prices, Critics Say
By David Cho
Washington Post Staff Writer
Friday, June 6, 2008; A01
Hedge funds and big Wall Street banks are taking advantage of loopholes in federal trading limits to buy massive amounts of oil contracts, according to a growing number of lawmakers and prominent investors, who blame the practice for helping to push oil prices to record highs.
The federal agency that oversees oil trading, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, has exempted these firms from rules that limit speculative buying, a prerogative traditionally reserved for airlines and trucking companies that need to lock in future fuel costs.
The CFTC has also waived regulations over the past decade on U.S. investors who trade commodities on some overseas markets, freeing those investors to ac ulate large quan ies of the future oil supply by making purchases on lightly regulated foreign exchanges.
Over the past five years, investors have become such a force on commodity markets that their appe e for oil contracts has been equal to China's increase in demand over the same period, said Michael Masters, a hedge fund manager who testified before Congress on the subject last month. The commodity markets, he added, were never intended for such large financial players.
"I've never said that financial speculation is behind all of the recent price increase here, but even if it's some of the reason, it's something society needs to look very hard at," he said.
Commodities have become especially enticing to investors as the credit crisis has roiled other investment opportunities such as stocks and debt-related securities. The recent flood of investment money has transformed the markets for oil, as well as uranium, wheat, cotton and other goods, into a volatile realm that some insiders call the Wild West of Wall Street.
( a lot of the investment money $800B+ comes from the cut in estate taxes on the superwealthy )
Even as record oil prices translate into staggering increases at the pump, some regulators, including Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr., say investors are not to blame. These officials cite supply and demand as a far bigger factor.
( dubya's henchmen are always believable. This guy is a member of the Masters of the Universe Club, the Wall St/DC/plutocrat/kleptocrat club )
Since last year, this was also the position of the CFTC. But agency officials have recently signaled greater concern, saying they want to collect more data to determine whether speculation might be a significant factor. That information can be difficult to obtain because commodity trading often occurs through private, unregulated transactions and on overseas exchanges.
Walter Lukken, the acting chairman of the CFTC, acknowledged in an interview that his agency has had a hard time keeping up with the sector it oversees. Commodity trading has exploded in complexity and popularity, he said, growing six-fold in trading volume since 2000.
That was the year a handful of giant energy companies, including Enron, successfully lobbied Congress to ease the regulation of energy markets.
( and the Repugs gave them exactly what they wanted, the Repug FERC looked the other way while the energy cos ed over America )
Meanwhile, the CFTC's staffing has dropped to its lowest levels in the agency's 33-year history.
"We could hire an extra 100 people and put them to work tomorrow given the inflow of trading volume," Lukken said. "We are doing the best we can in difficult cir stances. . . . This is something that we are obviously concerned with -- the potential for manipulation."
( yeah, right!
CFTC officials said in interviews that they planned to re-examine the exemptions granted by agency staff to Wall Street firms. These date to 1991, when complex derivatives used to bet on futures contracts emerged and their significance was little understood. These officials said they would also reconsider the waivers given to overseas trades.
On commodity markets, buyers largely purchase futures contracts, which determine the price goods will fetch on a particular date in the future. Unlike commercial businesses that are trying to lock in prices for coming orders, speculators have little interest in taking actual delivery of oil or other commodities. Instead, these investors trade the contracts like stocks. These investments can be very attractive because there are only light restrictions on whether they can be bought and sold using borrowed money. While risky, this can produce enormous returns.
Some Democratic and Republican lawmakers allege that gaps in oversight are allowing deep-pocketed speculators to manipulate prices.
"Consumers no longer have the confidence that the prices they are paying at the pump are fair or even linked to underlying supply-and-demand forces," said Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-Wash.).
( "let them eat new refineries!" ... will always bring down their prices! )
The recent craze in commodity investing is partly due to the emergence of commodity index funds, which act like mutual funds except they hold futures contracts rather than stocks. Such funds have made commodity purchases far easier for a wide range of investors, including hedge funds, investment banks, pension funds and university endowments.
George Soros, one of the nation's leading investors, testified in a Senate hearing this week that index funds were contributing to the rapid rise in commodity prices and were possibly creating a bubble. If it were to burst, sending prices tumbling, the fallout could wreak havoc on banks, retiree funds and colleges across the nation.
"I find commodity index buying eerily reminiscent of a similar craze for portfolio insurance, which led to the stock market crash of 1987," Soros said.
Information on commodity trades can be hard to come by. Some contracts are exchanged privately between two parties who do not have to disclose the transaction. There are also two exchanges that trade oil and other goods in the United States. One, the New York Mercantile Exchange, or Nymex, is closely regulated. The other, Intercontinental Exchange, has set up a market in London, where trading can occur beyond the purview of U.S. regulators.
( as the the right-wingers say, "if you have nothing to hide, then why not let the govt know everything about you" So why are these traders hiding and working off-shore? )
Nymex is now setting up its own market in Dubai, which the CFTC has given permission to trade oil destined for delivery in the United States. The CFTC has stated that it would not place restrictions on U.S. investors who exchange oil contracts in Dubai but rely on foreign regulators.
Nymex chief executive Jim Newsome said he recognized that Congress's patience with the CFTC was wearing thin. But he warned lawmakers against acting too rashly.
"I think some members of Congress would prefer the CFTC to move more quickly than they have," he said. "But the CFTC are the experts on these markets. And there can be very dangerous unintended consequences when you are dealing with a huge marketplace."
Officials at the Intercontinental Exchange said they worried that some investors would stop doing business with the United States if an "onerous regulatory burden" were placed on domestic markets.
Last week, the CFTC announced a new information-sharing agreement with British regulators who oversee the trading of oil destined for the United States. The agency also took the highly unusual step of revealing an ongoing investigation into possible oil price manipulation.
"I want to make sure these markets are properly regulated and will do everything we can to do that,"
Under pressure from voters, lawmakers are pressuring the CFTC to take even more forceful action to regulate the commodity markets.
CFTC Commissioner Bart Chilton acknowledged that the agency should have been quicker to adapt.
"The commission has realized that the ordinary regulatory environment that we've been operating in has transformed dramatically and we need to look at things in an entirely new way," Chilton said. "We haven't been doing all that we needed to do. We've been getting by, and I think it requires more than just getting by."
Michael Greenberger, a professor at the University of Maryland and former CFTC commissioner, said there were loopholes the agency could close without much effort.
( "much (regulatory) effort" from a Repug Exec? GMAFB )
"There's smoke here, and the CFTC hasn't wanted to look if there's a fire," he said. "Now they say they want to look, but they need the data. . . . But these are dark markets. They don't even know who's doing the trading."
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...504322_pf.html
==================
So as you drop $100 on the next tank, figure $30 is for the commodities sharks, and $30 is for dubya's bull war.
Some good news:
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080610/oil_prices.html
What I love most is the dimms wanting to raise taxes on
oilco's to solve the spiral in oil prices. Wonder how they
come up with these plans. Also wonder if anyone up there
ever thinks about just letting them drill and produce more.
You know like supply and demand..........
it's too bad you'll never understand the oil business.
Yeah, but I am learning by listening to the dimms.
I know that more taxes solves all problems. Right?
can you tell me why any company that makes billions in record profits deserves tax breaks?
later, we can talk about increased oil production and it's effect on gas prices and foreign dependency.
You want to talk about ALL the companies or just OILCO's.
You know like bottle water companies or shampoo compaies
or any number of companies that you buy from on a regular
basis that make huge amounts of profits for their investment.
sure, i'll talk about it. is an answer forthcoming?
I doubt it, at least one you would accept. How would
it be a day without you riding me.....
my day clam. I got to go do some things. And
Rush will be on in a little while. Got to get my fix
according to my adversaries on the forum. But
rest easy old friend. I shall return......
You keep my old mind a working.....
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