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I hate to wish this thing on anyone but IMO the best place for Rita to hit is in kenedy county.
I was just punching in to tell you guys that the was about to hit the fan but it looks like you already picked up on it...at this point the best we can hope for is that it hits between Port Isabel and Port Mansfield or between Port Mansfield and Baffin Bay...cuz it's gonna tear whatever it hits a new asshole...pray for that high to hold so that it starts to shear degrade before it makes landfall...
I hate to wish this thing on anyone but IMO the best place for Rita to hit is in kenedy county.
I really wanted to chase this storm. If it comes in at anything 3 and up, you can forget about it. I'm not going anywhere near a major hurricane unless I have to. However, if it does end up heading torwards Houston, Jess has family there. By contrast, I have family lower on the coast.
This one is going to effect a lot of people from this board in one way or another.
Victoria seems to be right in the middle of all the possible targets
Kennedy county is definetly the best place for this storm to come ashore. Nothing but cows for miles.
Still a long way off, hopefully everything will work out just fine for you.
Wouldn't that high pressure take it towards Louisiana?This is the latest run from the NAM model.
No, it will gravitate torwards low pressure because that is the path of least resistance.
nope...it's holding it south over the gulf and keeping it from turning north...it will just keep getting stronger till it finally makes the turn...
Texas DPS just opened the evacuation lane from Corpus to San Antonio.
One thing to consider as well...
You all remember Katrina weakening a lot right before landfall. This was due to a couple of reasons. It left the pool of superheated water it was over, and it encountered shear because of an incoming trof which made it turn to begin with.
This storm will more than likely NOT encounter a trof. It will ride the edge of the high north, but the trof that is moving the high won't intereact with it untill after landfall.
So, there will not be much shear to lower the system's intensity. The last discusion brought that up. While the models are calling for shear, that is probably just the outflow they are picking up.
If she's strong coming near the shore, don't expect the kind of weaking Katrina underwent.
This is the latest run from the GFS model.
That is the 0z run?
Serious question, if this thing became a strong cat 4 maybe 5 and did a straight on hit to Corpus, could it actually destroy that city?
Yeah, the 0z GFS shifted back to the south. Expect the next series of models to do the same.
Absolutely.
, really? I have a cousin living there.
I don't talk to her much but she just moved there about 3 months ago.
We would get a lot from it also, not to the extent that Corpus would but we could see flooding from a butt-load of rain.Serious question, if this thing became a strong cat 4 maybe 5 and did a straight on hit to Corpus, could it actually destroy that city?
But not 1998 flooding though,
1998 was a tropical storm that staled over San Antonio, sending band after band of rain.
We'd get a lot of wind too. You guys may not think of sustained tropical force winds as much, but that is at least 40mph SUSTAINED. That'll do a fair amount of damage coupled with higher gusts.
my mom, stepdad and my best friend live in Corpus Christi not to mention alot more people I knew and grew up with.. that sucks
Refinery row.. and or any damage to the deepwater port at Corpus.. or refineries in Houston area... those are the major risks.. GAS prices $$$$$ 6-10 bucks or more a gallon of petrol... if Refinery Row where to be wiped out.
T - MINUS 80 hours 27 minutes till estimated landfall....
Manny, you'd make a good weatherman. Early in this thread you said it would never be a cat 4, now you are saying its possible.
If Rita stalled over us, it could.But not 1998 flooding though,
1998 was a tropical storm that staled over San Antonio, sending band after band of rain.
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