Gustav

[MannyIsGod]

btw everyone here with a car better hope and pray the LOOP (Louisiana offshore oil port) makes it through this OK. A couple of experts online are talking about it being out of commission for months.

[MannyIsGod]

The current tracks, both official and objective, are showing serious damage to the LOOP terminal as well as Southwest Pass. About a dozen refineries, including the big Baton Rouge Refinery (~500,000BPD), are showing at least week-long shutdowns and various levels of damage. Long term power and pipeline disruption is forecast in the target area, with extended rain (due to the storm stalling inland) making repairs difficult. It's not a good forecast - in some ways, worse than Katrina. However, one thing folks should keep in mind: right now the major track models are abnormally closely clustered in space if not in time. That (obviously!) means that they are either all right or all wrong. I've done this long enough to suspect the former . . .

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4468#more


LOL I own a bike es. By this point next week you all will wish you did too.

[Buddy Holly]

I have a hover board that runs on water. I'm not sweatin' sheet.

[CubanMustGo]

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/4468#more


LOL I own a bike es. By this point next week you all will wish you did too.

I can work from home. By this point next week with it raining and you will all wish you could too.

[MannyIsGod]

I can work from home. By this point next week with it raining and you will all wish you could too.

Well I have a car for the rainy days. I also work from home though! Its school that s me.

[CubanMustGo]

j/k Manny. Thanks for the wx updates - scary .

[RashoFan]

Let me know if y'all can't read this article.
http://www.jems.com/news_and_article...or_gustav.html
Obviously it was posted earlier this week, but it does shed some light on what is planned so far...

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

We could really get ed at the pump... it could tear up the LOOP and Louisiana refining and then get pushed back out into the Gulf, then come up the Houston shipping channel.

Kinda like this model (guessing on that last part)...

http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/mod...2hwrfLoop.html



Four storms lining up in the Atlantic:

http://www.globalboiling.org/#Gulfloop

[Tonto]

[scott]

Manny/AHF/All others:

I've been to LOOP a couple of times, the most recent was a few months after Katrina. The topic of hurricane readiness came up at that meeting, and I'll say that I am very confident that Gustav, or any other major hurricanes, will not do major damage to it. They can have power to the pipelines back within a couple of days.

The more serious problem, in regards to LOOP, is their storage caverns onshore in Houma, LA. To get crude oil out, they use brine, and the pit is exposed to the elements. Large scale damage to the brine pit (Houma is basically just a swamp and while I don't know the area that well, I'd imagine that the storm surge in that area would put the pit underwater) could make those caverns inoperable for awhile. However, new shipments will be able to come in.

The industry is significantly better prepared this time around the 2005, so I don't think we'll see the kind of situation we had back then (for one, we don't have the tightness in the product markets we had then to start with). I have seen quit a lot of bullish oil statements in various publications, but they seem to be for the purposes of aiding the author's own bullish positions rather than reality.

[Tonto]

[PhotoShop]

[Heath Ledger]

Man look at all of the weather experts coming out of the ing cracks.

[Cry Havoc]

Gustav's eye is looking more ragged by the minute. Either he's undergoing an ERC, or he just isn't able to gather strength with that high coasting off to his right.

It's a good example of just how many conditions have to be right for a hurricane to truly explode.

Strengthening is still not out of the question, but he's going to have to get his act together quickly if he wants to reach cat 5.

Still should make landfall as a cat3 or cat4. Still completely dangerous. But thankfully he might not be the "worst-case" scenario.

[Cry Havoc]

Eye now visible on the satellite. Gustav is starting to power up again.

[GuerillaBlack]

Gustav's eye is looking more ragged by the minute. Either he's undergoing an ERC, or he just isn't able to gather strength with that high coasting off to his right.

It's a good example of just how many conditions have to be right for a hurricane to truly explode.

Strengthening is still not out of the question, but he's going to have to get his act together quickly if he wants to reach cat 5.

Still should make landfall as a cat3 or cat4. Still completely dangerous. But thankfully he might not be the "worst-case" scenario.

Eye now visible on the satellite. Gustav is starting to power up again.

Yeah, Cuba hurt Gustav a little bit, but it is now going through a strengthening process. I suspect that when I get back home around 2 PM today, this thing will have ballooned into a Cat 4 or even 5 storm. It's possible. Rita did it in just a few hours.

[Cry Havoc]

Yeah, Cuba hurt Gustav a little bit, but it is now going through a strengthening process. I suspect that when I get back home around 2 PM today, this thing will have ballooned into a Cat 4 or even 5 storm. It's possible. Rita did it in just a few hours.

Possible, but not probable. Gustav will likely not reach Cat5 status. There is dry air to his west and high pressure to his East, both of which are impeding him from really expanding his outflow jets.

Still, he's going to be strengthening or maintaining strength as he comes ashore... still a very bad situation. I think he hits as a Cat 3 right on the border of a 4, just west of NOLA.

[GuerillaBlack]

I see.

Looks like Hanna will probably go to the east coast now as a Cat 1 or 2. That thing is still pretty unpredictable. We have to wait for Gustav to leave the Gulf (it can't handle two hurricanes at once).

[Cry Havoc]

The latest storm model shows that Gustav is heading RIGHT for NOLA.

Heading due NW. And it's ramping up QUICKLY.

[Tonto]

FIXED

[Cry Havoc]

Wow, this storm is frustrating. The eye looks perfect one minute, then ragged the next. Showing signs of strengthening, but we will see.

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

[Aggie Hoopsfan]

Water temps... Katrina vs. today.

[RashoFan]

I was expecting Gustav to be a high Cat4 when I got up. He is a Cat 3 right now??? What interesting info you guys are posting about sheer, GOM Loop current and loop eddy. Thanks for posting, maybe one day i can understand everything y'all are talking about.
The one thing I do understand is NOLA is going to get f'ed up!

[Brutalis]

Man. This is going to get ugly..